Estimation of parameters in a split functional model of geodetic observations (<Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>split</Subscript> estimation)

The paper presents a method of estimating parameters in two competitive functional models. The models considered here are concerned with the same observation set and are based on the assumption that an observation may result from a realization of either of two different random variables. These variables differ from one another at least in the main characteristic (for example, outliers can be realizations of one variable). A quantity that describes the opportunity of identifying a single observation with one random variable is assumed to be known. That quantity, called the elementary split potential, is strictly referred to the amount of information that an observation can provide about two competitive assumptions concerning the observation distribution. Parameter assessments that maximize the global elementary split potential (concerning all observations), are called M _split estimators. A generalization of M _split estimation presented in the paper refers to the theoretical foundation of M-estimation. An erratum to this article can be found at     

Effects of an Omnivorous Katydid,Salinity, and Nutrients on a Planthopper-<Emphasis Type="Italic">Spartina</Emphasis> Food Web

Top–down and bottom–up effects interact to structure communities, especially in salt marshes, which contain strong gradients in bottom–up drivers such as salinity and nutrients. How omnivorous consumers respond to variation in prey availability and plant quality is poorly understood. We used a mesocosm experiment to examine how salinity, nutrients, an omnivore (the katydid Orchelimum fidicinium) and an herbivore (the planthopper Prokelisia spp.) interacted to structure a simplified salt marsh food web based on the marsh grass Spartina alterniflora. Bottom–up effects were strong, with both salinity and nutrients decreasing leaf C/N and increasing Prokelisia abundance. Top–down effects on plants were also strong, with both the herbivore and the omnivore affecting S. alterniflora traits and growth, especially when nutrients or salt were added. In contrast, top–down control by Orchelimum of Prokelisia was independent of bottom–up conditions. Orchelimum grew best on a diet containing both Spartina and Prokelisia, and in contrast to a sympatric omnivorous crab, did not shift to an animal-based diet when prey were present, suggesting that it is constrained to consume a mixed diet. These results suggest that the trophic effects of omnivores depend on omnivore behavior, dietary constraints, and ability to suppress lower trophic levels, and that omnivorous katydids may play a previously unrecognized role in salt marsh food webs.     

Non-stationary frequency analysis of extreme precipitation in South Korea using peaks-over-threshold and annual maxima

The conventional approach to the frequency analysis of extreme precipitation is complicated by non-stationarity resulting from climate variability and change. This study utilized a non-stationary frequency analysis to better understand the time-varying behavior of short-duration (1-, 6-, 12-, and 24-h) precipitation extremes at 65 weather stations scattered across South Korea. Trends in precipitation extremes were diagnosed with respect to both annual maximum precipitation (AMP) and peaks-over-threshold (POT) extremes. Non-stationary generalized extreme value (GEV) and generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) models with model parameters made a linear function of time were applied to AMP and POT respectively. Trends detected using the Mann–Kendall test revealed that the stations showing an increasing trend in AMP extremes were concentrated in the mountainous areas (the northeast and southwest regions) of South Korea. Trend tests on POT extremes provided fairly different results, with a significantly reduced number of stations showing an increasing trend and with some stations showing a decreasing trend. For most of stations showing a statistically significant trend, non-stationary GEV and GPD models significantly outperformed their stationary counterparts, particularly for precipitation extremes with shorter durations. Due to a significant-increasing trend in the POT frequency found at a considerable number of stations (about 10 stations for each rainfall duration), the performance of modeling POT extremes was further improved with a non-homogeneous Poisson model. The large differences in design storm estimates between stationary and non-stationary models (design storm estimates from stationary models were significantly lower than the estimates of non-stationary models) demonstrated the challenges in relying on the stationary assumption when planning the design and management of water facilities. This study also highlighted the need of caution when quantifying design storms from POT and AMP extremes by showing a large discrepancy between the estimates from those two approaches.     

Oil-generation kinetics for organic facies with Type-II and -IIS kerogen in the Menilite Shales of the Polish Carpathians

The Menilite Shales (Oligocene) of the Polish Carpathians are the source of low-sulfur oils in the thrust belt and some high-sulfur oils in the Carpathian Foredeep. These oil occurrences indicate that the high-sulfur oils in the Foredeep were generated and expelled before major thrusting and the low-sulfur oils in the thrust belt were generated and expelled during or after major thrusting. Two distinct organic facies have been observed in the Menilite Shales. One organic facies has a high clastic sediment input and contains Type-II kerogen. The other organic facies has a lower clastic sediment input and contains Type-IIS kerogen. Representative samples of both organic facies were used to determine kinetic parameters for immiscible oil generation by isothermal hydrous pyrolysis and S₂ generation by non-isothermal open-system pyrolysis. The derived kinetic parameters showed that timing of S₂ generation was not as different between the Type-IIS and -II kerogen based on open-system pyrolysis as compared with immiscible oil generation based on hydrous pyrolysis. Applying these kinetic parameters to a burial history in the Skole unit showed that some expelled oil would have been generated from the organic facies with Type-IIS kerogen before major thrusting with the hydrous-pyrolysis kinetic parameters but not with the open-system pyrolysis kinetic parameters. The inability of open-system pyrolysis to determine earlier petroleum generation from Type-IIS kerogen is attributed to the large polar-rich bitumen component in S₂ generation, rapid loss of sulfur free-radical initiators in the open system, and diminished radical selectivity and rate constant differences at higher temperatures. Hydrous-pyrolysis kinetic parameters are determined in the presence of water at lower temperatures in a closed system, which allows differentiation of bitumen and oil generation, interaction of free-radical initiators, greater radical selectivity, and more distinguishable rate constants as would occur during natural maturation. Kinetic parameters derived from hydrous pyrolysis show good correlations with one another (compensation effect) and kerogen organic-sulfur contents. These correlations allow for indirect determination of hydrous-pyrolysis kinetic parameters on the basis of the organic-sulfur mole fraction of an immature Type-II or -IIS kerogen.     

Versuch der Geschlechtsbestimmung beim Wels,Silurus glanis L., mit Hilfe der Diskriminanzanalyse von Brustflossendaten

Width of the first ray of the pectoral fin has been measured in two places for 154 young and 89 adult wels. Statistical relationships between the above characters and fish length as well as its maturity and sex have been proved. Three models of discriminant function for identification of adult fish sex have been derived and verified. The accuracy of sex separation has been 89,5% in a standard sample of wels, and 90,6% in a routine sample, after an adjustment in the procedure.     

A Practical Measurement Strategy to Estimate Nonlinear Chlorinated Solvent Sorption in Low foc Sediments

In this study, we tested a practical strategy useful for accurate chlorinated volatile organic compound (cVOC) sorption prediction. Corresponding to the feature of the superposition of adsorption due to thermally altered carbonaceous matter (TACM) with organic carbon‐water partitioning, a nonlinear Freundlich sorption isotherm covering a wide range of aqueous concentrations was defined by equilibrium sorption measurement at one or a few low concentration points with extrapolation to the empirical organic carbon‐water partition coefficient (K_oc,e) near compound solubility. We applied this approach to obtain perchloroethene equilibrium sorption isotherm parameters for TACM‐containing glacial sand and gravel subsoil samples from a field site in New York. Sorption and associated K_oc,c applicable to low (5–500 µg/L) and high (>100,000 µg/L) aqueous concentrations were determined in batch experiments. (The K_oc,c is the organic carbon‐normalized sorption partition coefficient corresponding to aqueous concentration C_w.) The K_oc,c measurements at low concentration (~5 µg/L) were 6 to 34 times greater than the K_oc,e. The importance of this type of data is illustrated through presentation of its substantial impact on the site remedy. In so doing, we provide an approach that is broadly applicable to cVOC field sites with similar circumstances (low carbon content glacial sand and gravel with TACM).     

中国地壳与上地幔结构的地球物理研究

地壳与上地幔是人类居住与获取各种资源、能源,改造和利用自然的重要场所,是地球科学的基础与生长点,六十年代以来发展迅猛。中国大陆、海域和过渡带地区的地壳和上地幔物理探索,在全球板块构造和驱动机制的研究具有特殊地位,文中分别就1)青藏高原地区的地壳结构,2)青海、甘肃地区地壳结构和地壳中的高速块层,3)中原地区的地壳与上地幔结构,4)京津及外围地区的地壳结构,5)隋县—南京—启东和隋县—安阳人工地震探测面的观测,6)利用面波和远震P波确定中国地壳和上地幔结构,7)中国地壳结构的基本轮廓等方面进行了讨论。     

Non-parametric simulations-based conditional stochastic predictions of geologic heterogeneities and leakage potentials for hypothetical CO2 sequestration sites

The present study focuses on understanding the leakage potentials of the stored supercritical CO₂ plume through caprocks generated in geostatistically created heterogeneous media. For this purpose, two hypothetical cases with different geostatistical features were developed, and two conditional geostatistical simulation models (i.e., sequential indicator simulation or SISIM and generalized coupled Markov chain or GCMC) were applied for the stochastic characterizations of the heterogeneities. Then, predictive CO₂ plume migration simulations based on stochastic realizations were performed and summarized. In the geostatistical simulations, the results from the GCMC model showed better performance than those of the SISIM model for the strongly non-stationary case, while SISIM models showed reasonable performance for the weakly non-stationary case in terms of low-permeability lenses characterization. In the subsequent predictive simulations of CO₂ plume migration, the observations in the geostatistical simulations were confirmed and the GCMC-based predictions showed underestimations in CO₂ leakage in the stationary case, while the SISIM-based predictions showed considerable overestimations in the non-stationary case. The overall results suggest that: (1) proper characterization of low-permeability layering is significantly important in the prediction of CO₂ plume behavior, especially for the leakage potential of CO₂ and (2) appropriate geostatistical techniques must be selectively employed considering the degree of stationarity of the targeting fields to minimize the uncertainties in the predictions.