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Seismic Hazard for Selected Sites in Greece: A Bayesian Estimate of Seismic Peak Ground Acceleration 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:1
A procedure for estimating maximum values of seismic peak ground accelerationat the examined site and quantiles of its probabilistic distribution in a future timeinterval of a given length is considered. The input information for the method areseismic catalog and regression relation between peak seismic acceleration at a givenpoint and magnitude and distance from the site to epicenter (seismic attenuation law).The method is based on Bayesian approach, which simply accounts for influenceof uncertainties of seismic acceleration values. The main assumptions for the method are Poissonian character of seismic events flow and distribution law of Gutenberg-Richter's type. The method is applied to seismic hazard estimation in six selected sitesin Greece. 相似文献
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— We present a quantitative statistical test for the presence of a crossover c0 in the Gutenberg-Richter distribution of earthquake seismic moments, separating the usual power-law regime for seismic moments less than c0 from another faster decaying regime beyond c0. Our method is based on the transformation of the ordered sample of seismic moments into a series with uniform distribution under condition of no crossover. A simulation method allows us to estimate the statistical significance of the null hypothesis H0 of an absence of crossover (c0=infinity). When H0 is rejected, we estimate the crossover c0 using two different competing models for the second regime beyond c0 and the simulation method. For the catalog obtained by aggregating 14 subduction zones of the Circum-Pacific Seismic Belt, our estimate of the crossover point is log(c0)=28.14 ± 0.40 (c0 in dyne-cm), corresponding to a crossover magnitude mW=8.1 ± 0.3. For separate subduction zones, the corresponding estimates are substantially more uncertain, so that the null hypothesis of an identical crossover for all subduction zones cannot be rejected. Such a large value of the crossover magnitude makes it difficult to associate it directly with a seismogenic thickness as proposed by many different authors. Our measure of c0 may substantiate the concept that the localization of strong shear deformation could propagate significantly in the lower crust and upper mantle, thus increasing the effective size beyond which one should expect a change of regime. 相似文献
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The Retrieval of Harmonics from a Covariance Function 总被引:8,自引:0,他引:8
V. F. Pisarenko 《Geophysical Journal International》1973,33(3):347-366
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Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth - The known methods for identifying the clusters of seismic events that are mainly formed by the aftershocks frequently include debatable initial assumptions... 相似文献
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V. F. Pisarenko A. Sornette D. Sornette M. V. Rodkin 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2016,173(2):709-713
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Pisarenko V. F. Rodkin M. V. Rukavishnikova T. A. 《Izvestiya Physics of the Solid Earth》2020,56(1):53-65
Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth - A new composite model is suggested for the frequency–magnitude relation of the earthquakes. The new model statistically reasonably describes the... 相似文献
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V. F. Pisarenko M. V. Rodkin T. A. Rukavishnikova 《Izvestiya Physics of the Solid Earth》2017,53(6):805-818
The most general approach to studying the recurrence law in the area of the rare largest events is associated with the use of limit law theorems of the theory of extreme values. In this paper, we use the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). The unknown GPD parameters are typically determined by the method of maximal likelihood (ML). However, the ML estimation is only optimal for the case of fairly large samples (>200–300), whereas in many practical important cases, there are only dozens of large events. It is shown that in the case of a small number of events, the highest accuracy in the case of using the GPD is provided by the method of quantiles (MQs). In order to illustrate the obtained methodical results, we have formed the compiled data sets characterizing the tails of the distributions for typical subduction zones, regions of intracontinental seismicity, and for the zones of midoceanic (MO) ridges. This approach paves the way for designing a new method for seismic risk assessment. Here, instead of the unstable characteristics—the uppermost possible magnitude Mmax—it is recommended to use the quantiles of the distribution of random maxima for a future time interval. The results of calculating such quantiles are presented. 相似文献