Reliability of reanalyses products in simulating precipitation and temperature characteristics over India

Various reanalyses have been utilized in numerous climate related researches around the globe, however, there exists considerable biasedness in these products, especially in precipitation and temperature data. The ability of these reanalysis products to simulate the precipitation and temperature patterns is observed to be satisfactory at global scale, while it differs significantly at regional scale, especially over regions of high spatio-temporal heterogeneity such as India. Therefore, it is essential to evaluate the applicability and robustness of reanalyses in climate related research. The annual and seasonal variability in spatio-temporal patterns and trends of precipitation and temperature data, with respect to the IMD gridded data over 34 yrs, are evaluated for six global reanalyses namely, NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis (NCEP R1), NCEP-DOE AMIP-2 Reanalysis (NCEP R2), Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), ECMWF Interim Reanalysis (ERA-Interim), Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Application Land only model (MERRA-Land) and JMA 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55). The ability of the reanalyses was tested based on several factors such as statistical and categorical indices, spells and trends, for annual and seasonal daily values. Several regional and seasonal differences were observed, particularly over high rainfall regions such as Western Ghats and northeastern India. MERRA-Land is found to give the best results for precipitation over India, which is attributed to the updated forcing data using gauge-based precipitation observations. Similarly, ERA-Interim and JRA-55 exhibit better performance for temperature than other datasets. All reanalyses failed to correctly reproduce the trends in IMD data, for both precipitation and temperature. These observations will provide a better perception on the reliability and applicability of reanalyses for climate and hydrological studies over India.     

Quantifying groundwater sensitivity and resilience over peninsular India

Groundwater in India plays an important role to support livelihoods and maintain ecosystems and the present rate of depletion of groundwater resources poses a serious threat to water security. Yet, the sensitivity of the hydrological processes governing groundwater recharge to climate variability remains unclear in the region. Here we assess the groundwater sensitivity (precipitation–recharge relationship) and its potential resilience towards climatic variability over peninsular India using a conceptual water balance model and a convex model, respectively in 54 catchments over peninsular India. Based on the model performance using a comprehensive approach (Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency [NSE], bias and variability), 24 out of 54 catchments are selected for assessment of groundwater sensitivity and its resilience. Further, a systematic approach is used to understand the changes in resilience on a temporal scale based upon the convex model and principle of critical slowing down theory. The results of the study indicate that the catchments with higher mean groundwater sensitivity (GWS) encompass high variability in GWS over the period (1988–2011), thus indicating the associated vulnerability towards hydroclimatic disturbances. Moreover, it was found that the catchments pertaining to a lower magnitude of mean resilience index incorporates a high variability in resilience index over the period (1993–2007), clearly illustrating the inherent vulnerability of these catchments. The resilience of groundwater towards climatic variability and hydroclimatic disturbances that is revealed by groundwater sensitivity is essential to understand the future impacts of changing climate on groundwater and can further facilitate effective adaptation strategies.     

Uplift along the western margin of the Deccan Basalt Province: Is there any geomorphometric evidence?

In line with the passive margin landscape evolutionary model in vogue, sustained erosion and long-distance retreat of the Western Ghat escarpment are widely considered to be the results of erosionally-driven isostatic uplift since Tertiary by many workers. Others have postulated or adduced evidence for strong neotectonic activity in the Ghat region. An obvious question in this regard is whether there is any geomorphometric evidence in support of this widespread view? In order to test the hypothesis of ongoing post-rift fexural uplift or neotectonic activity in the western Deccan Basalt Province (DBP), geomorphometric analysis was carried out and commonly used geomorphic indices of active tectonics (GAT) were derived for 30 selected river basins on both sides of the Western Ghat. SRTM-DEM data and ArcGIS were used to derive the indices. Tectonic geomorphic analysis based on five proxy indicators suggests that the differences in GAT indices, both along strike and across the Western Ghat, are statistically insignificant. The index values are nowhere close to the GAT values typically associated with drainage basins affected by active tectonics and deformation. Mapping of the indices reveals lack of discernable trends. The adduced results indicate that the western DBP belongs to the class of relatively low tectonic activity.     

Breaking halo occupation degeneracies with marked statistics

We show that a suitably defined marked correlation function can be used to break degeneracies in halo-occupation distribution modelling. The statistic can be computed on both three-dimensional and two-dimensional data sets and should be applicable to all upcoming galaxy surveys. A proof of principle, using mock catalogues created from N -body simulations, is given.     

A new model for spectral velocity ordinates at long periods

The estimation of peak linear response via elastic design (response) spectra continues to form the basis of earthquake‐resistant design of structural systems in various codes of practice all over the world. Many response spectrum‐based formulations of peak linear response require an additional input of the spectral velocity (SV) ordinates consistent with the specified seismic hazard. SV ordinates have been conventionally approximated by pseudo spectral velocity (PSV) ordinates, which are close to the SV ordinates only over the intermediate frequency range coinciding with the velocity‐sensitive region. At long periods, PSV ordinates underestimate the SV ordinates, and this study proposes a formulation of a correction factor (>1) that needs to be multiplied by the PSV ordinates in order to close the gap between the two sets of ordinates. A simple model is proposed in the form of a power function in oscillator period to estimate this factor in terms of two governing parameters which are in turn estimated from two single‐parameter scaling equations. The parameters considered for the scaling equations are (1) the period at which the PSV spectrum is maximized and (2) the rate of decay of the pseudo spectral acceleration (PSA) amplitudes at long periods. For a given damping ratio, four regression coefficients are determined for the scaling equations with the help of 205 ground motions recorded in western USA. A numerical study undertaken with the help of several design PSA spectra and ensembles of spectrum‐compatible ground motions illustrates the effectiveness of the proposed correction factor, together with the proposed scaling models, in comparison with the PSV approximation in a variety of design situations. Both the input parameters mentioned above can be easily obtained from the specified design spectrum, and thus the proposed model is convenient to use.     

A method to develop the input parameter database for site-specific debris flow hazard prediction under extreme rainfall

The predictive hazard analysis at a detailed scale for debris flow runout analysis can be improved significantly through reliable estimation of the input parameters. In this study, a method for database establishment of input parameters at a site-specific scale was laid out for the predictive-based debris flow hazard assessment under extreme rainfall. The adoption of the DAN-3D code necessitated the estimation of three main input parameters: initial volume, bulk basal frictional angle, and growth rate. The initial volume was assessed using a 3D coupled finite element seepage and limit equilibrium-based slope stability analysis. An artificial neural network-based model was developed using 27 debris flow events for predicting the basal bulk frictional angle and consisted of eight factors: plan curvature, profile curvature, percentage of fine content, D₅₀, initial unit weight, initial volume, relative relief ratio, and channel length. Finally, the growth rate was estimated using the previously assessed initial volume, soil depth, and the approximate runout length. The proposed method was validated by application to the Raemian slope in the Woomyeon mountain region, Seoul, for the extreme rainfall event of 27 July 2011. The analysis yielded a final volume of 53,067.9 m³, a velocity upon arrival on the road of 26.81 m/s, and an approximately 0.5-m debris thickness concentrated near the Raemian apartments. The comparison of the predicted debris flow path and debris flow velocity with the actual event demonstrates good similarity and provides a conservative estimate of the volume. This study therefore illustrates the importance of an input parameter database in providing a reliable debris flow runout hazard assessment.