On the estimation of earthquake maximum magnitude based on a joint analysis of seismological and geothermal parameters

To improve the reliability of earthquake prediction, it is important to determine those layers in the crust of the earth in which the foci of most strong earthquakes occur. An analysis of regional earthquake catalogues shows that in depressions strong events originate within a specific layer in the middle part of the crust. An investigation of the geothermal regime in the depressions under study shows that the thickness and location of this layer depend on geothermal parameters which correlate with the strongest earthquake magnitude in particular areas. Thus, it seems possible to use geothermal and seismological parameters for estimating the maximum magnitude of earthquakes for at least some areas.     

Seismicity features of the caucasus in comparison with its tectonic structures

Various parameters of seismic field are considered for the Caucasian region. The most informative appeared to be the “sigma-Σ” parameter. A sketch map of the geotectonic zoning of the Caucasus is shown in which the σ parameter is represented by isolines for all periods under consideration. A comparative analysis of the values of the sigma-Σ parameter was conducted in each elemental area for three successive decades. Zones which are characterized by an unstable behaviour of the parameter can be distinguished.     

Magnitude calibrating functions for a multidimensional homogeneous system of reference stations

Calibrating functions play a substantial role in the determination of earthquake magnitudes. Their shape and character is closely connected with the internal structure of the Earth, the distribution of velocities and attenuation of seismic waves in the Earth's body. These facts have been considered during the establishment of the Eurasian Homogeneous Magnitude System (EuHMS). The paper summarizes the procedures used for constructing the new complete set of calibrating functions for body and surface waves (vertical and horizontal components of P, S and L waves from medium period instruments, and vertical component of P waves from short period instruments).The calibrating functions were derived in the distance range between 20° and 100°, being based on several thousands of homogeneous observations for each wave type. The application of a HMS gives a possibility to derive the magnitude calibrating functions with a considerable degree of reliability due to the method of simultaneous optimization of the calibrating functions and the systems of station corrections. The magnitude calibrating functions for EuHMS represent the first complete set of calibrating functions, which are derived by the same standard method and initial observational material. A comparison with the existing calibrating functions shows that the application of σ and Q functions, presently used in the seismological practice for magnitude determinations, may lead to errors exceeding of magnitude unit at certain epicentral distances, specific for each wave type. It appears that the internationally recommended Q functions are not admissible for magnitude determinations from short-period P waves.     

Joint analysis of seismological data by the USSO and DSS stations in the Caucasus region

This paper deals with a procedure of a joint analysis of seismic data from earthquakes and those obtained by DSS. The DSS data are used as a first approximation to construct a two-dimensional model of the medium made up of individual blocks. These models serve as a basis when constructing specific three-dimensional travel-time curves. These travel-time curves are further used for the calculation of hypocenter parameters in a laterally inhomogeneous block medium.The hypocenter field and the travel times obtained are input data for the computation of three-dimensional fields of velocities in earthquake focal zones. Results of applying the proposed procedure to the Caucasus region are presented.     

The earthquake of March 4, 1977, its recording peculiarities and source parameters

A detailed analysis of recording peculiarities at seismic stations of the Uniform System of Seismic Observations (USSO) is presented a complicated nature of the source being shown. Consideration is given to parameters of the earthquake source, including the seismic moment and the length of the rupture.Comparison of magnitudes M_LH and M_PV indicates an anomalous attenuation in surface waves, itis is 3–4 times weaker than it had been noticed in case of other intermediate-depth Carpathian earthquakes.On the basis of comparison of the logarithm of the ratio of P-wave spectra at different epicentral distances (30° –70° ), the fac tor characterizing the absorption of P wave is found to remain practically unchanged.Average value of the seismic moment is estimated to be 2.6 × 10²⁷ dyne × cm, the most reasonable length of the rupture 58 km, and its focus 100 –130 km. The source parameters of the earthquake in question are compared with those of the earthquake of November 10, 1940.     

The uniform system of seismic observations of the U.S.S.R. and prospects of its development

In the period up to about 1965 the stations of the Soviet seismic network distributed throughout the regions of the U.S.S.R. had increased in number to in excess of one hundred. In order that the data provided by such stations could be applied to the study of the earth's structure rather than merely regional problems, and to the determination of the seismic character of the territory of the U.S.S.R. as a whole, it became necessary to institute the Unified System of Seismic Observations (USSO) of the U.S.S.R. The standardization of data and organization of the stations into a system of base and regional stations and also into zonal networks, covering specific seismic zones of the U.S.S.R., has been effected within the USSO. Currently the USSO consists of 215 stations mostly equipped with high-sensitivity instruments with magnifications of 20–50,000 and dynamic ranges of 35–40 dB. To exploit the large volume of observational data obtained through the system it is necessary to devise a programme for the transmission, processing and storage of data on the necessary scale. In the present paper we describe the methods which have been adopted and those which are in the course of development for such a programme in the U.S.S.R.     

FINDING CAUSES OF OUTLIERS IN MULTIVARIATE ENVIRONMENTAL DATA

Multivariate outliers in environmental data sets are often caused by atypical measurement error in a singlevariable.From a quality assurance perspective it is important to identify these variables efficiently so thatcorrective actions may be performed.We demonstrate a procedure for using two multivariate tests toidentify which variable‘caused’each outlier.The procedure is tested with simulated data sets that havethe same correlation structure as selected water chemistry variables from a survey of lakes in the WesternUnited States.The success rates are evaluated for three of the variables for sample sizes of 50 and 100,significance levels of 0.01 and 0.05 and various amounts of mean shift.The procedure works best forhighly correlated variables.     

Anthropogenic Sulfate and Nitrate Signals in Snow from Bogda Glacier, Eastern Tianshan

A 1.2 m snow pit was recovered on July 29th, 2009 from the Bogda Glacier, eastern Tianshan (天山). The sample site temperature of -9.6 ℃ indicates that the unique glaciochemical re-cord was well preserved and suitable for the reconstruction of air pollution levels in this previously un-explored region. Samples were analyzed for major ions (Na+, K+, Ca2+, Mg2+, NH4+, Cl-, SO42-, NO3-, HCOO-, and CH3COO-). NO3- and SO42- were characterized by significant high levels of pollution con-centration. Most air masses ...