The Southern Antarctic Circumpolar Current Front: physical and biological coupling at South Georgia

The coupling of physics and biology was examined along a 160 km long transect running out from the north coast of South Georgia Island and crossing the Southern Antarctic Circumpolar Current Front (SACCF) during late December 2000. Surface and near surface potential TS properties indicated the presence of three water types: a near-shore group of stations characterised by water which became progressively warmer and fresher closer to South Georgia, an offshore grouping in which sea surface temperatures and those at the winter water level were relatively warm (1.8°C and 0.5°C, respectively), and a third in which surface and winter water temperatures were cooler and reflected the presence of the SACCF. The transect bisected the SACCF twice, revealing that it was flowing in opposite directions, north-westward closest to South Georgia and south-eastwards at its furthest point from the island. The innermost limb was a narrow intense feature located just off the shelf break in 2000–3500 m of water and in which rapid surface baroclinic velocities (up to 35 cm s⁻¹) were encountered. Offshore in the outermost limb, shown subsequently to be a mesoscale eddy that had meandered south from the retroflected limb of the SACCF, flow was broader and slower with peak velocities around 20 cm s⁻¹. Chlorophyll a biomass was generally low (<1 mg m⁻³) over much of the transect but increased dramatically in the region of the innermost limb of the SACCF, where a deepening of the surface mixed layer was coincident with a subsurface chlorophyll maximum (7.4 mg m⁻³) and elevated concentrations down to 100 m. The bloom was coincident with depleted nutrient concentrations, particularly silicate, nitrate and phosphate, and although ammonium concentrations were locally depleted the bloom lay within an elevated band (up to 1.5 mmol m⁻³) associated with the frontal jet. Increased zooplankton abundance, higher copepod body carbon mass and egg production rates all showed a strong spatial integrity with the front. The population structure of the copepods Calanoides acutus and Rhincalanus gigas at stations within the front suggested that rather than simply resulting from entrainment and concentration within the jet, increased copepod abundance was the result of development in situ. Estimates of bloom duration, based on silicate and carbon budget calculations, set the likely duration between 82 and 122 d, a figure supported by the development schedule of the two copepod species. Given this timescale, model outputs from FRAM and OCCAM indicated that particles that occurred on the north side of South Georgia in December would have been in the central-southern Scotia Sea 2–3 months earlier, probably in sea ice affected regions.     

Cross section parameterizations for cosmic-ray nuclei. I. Single nucleon removal

Parameterizations of single nucleon removal from the electromagnetic and strong interactions of cosmic rays with nuclei are presented. These parameterizations are based upon the theoretical models developed by Baur, Bertulani, Benesh, Cook, Vary, Norbury, and Townsend. They should be very suitable for use in cosmic-ray propagation through interstellar space, Earth's atmosphere, lunar samples, meteorites, spacecraft walls, and lunar and martian habitats.     

The geological and geodynamic evolution of the eastern Black Sea basin: insights from 2-D and 3-D tectonic modelling

Subsidence mechanisms that may have controlled the evolution of the eastern Black Sea have been studied and simulated using a numerical model that integrates structural, thermal, isostatic and surface processes in both two- (2-D) and three-dimensions (3-D). The model enables the forward modelling of extensional basin evolution followed by deformation due to subsequent extensional and compressional events. Seismic data show that the eastern Black Sea has evolved via a sequence of interrelated tectonic events that began with early Tertiary rifting followed by several phases of compression, mainly confined to the edges of the basin. A large magnitude (approximately 12 km) of regional subsidence also occurred in the central basin throughout the Tertiary. Models that simulate the magnitude of observed fault controlled extension (β=1.13) do not reproduce the total depth of the basin. Similarly, the modelling of compressional deformation around the edges of the basin does little to enhance subsidence in the central basin. A modelling approach that quantifies lithosphere extension according to the amount of observed crustal thinning and thickening across the basin provides the closest match to overall subsidence. The modelling also shows that deep crustal and mantle–lithosphere processes can significantly influence the rate and magnitude of syn- to post-rift subsidence and shows that such mechanisms may have played an important role in forming the anomalously thin syn-rift and thick Miocene–Quaternary sequences observed in the basin. It is also suggested that extension of a 40–45 km thick pre-rift crust is required to generate the observed magnitude of total subsidence when considering a realistic bathymetry.     

The geography of water conflict and cooperation: internal pressures and international manifestations

Studies on transboundary water conflict and cooperation generally consider interstate relations over shared water resources as distinct from intrastate relations. While connections have been made between international water relations and regional relationships in general, it is conceivable that international water conflict and cooperation may also be influenced by domestic water events and vice versa. This paper seeks to investigate the dynamics of water interactions across geographic scale and their relationship to broader international affairs. The research approach involves the creation of an analytical framework for assessing possible linkages between external and internal interactions over freshwater resources. The framework is applied to three case studies – the Middle East, South Asia and Southern Africa – utilizing 'event data'. To validate the findings from the quantitative analyses, the results are compared with conventional qualitative understandings of water and overall relations in the three regions. The comparison demonstrates not only the efficacy of the analytical framework in general, but also highlights, at least in terms of the specific case studies selected, the disparate water dynamics across geographic regions and the importance of considering water events, both national and international, within larger political and historical contexts.     

Stochastic Structural Modeling

A consistent stochastic model for faults and horizons is described. The faults are represented as a parametric invertible deformation operator. The faults may truncate each other. The horizons are modeled as correlated Gaussian fields and are represented in a grid. Petrophysical variables may be modeled in a reservoir before faulting in order to describe the juxtaposition effect of the faulting. It is possible to condition the realization on petrophysics, horizons, and fault plane observations in wells in addition to seismic data. The transmissibility in the fault plane may also be included in the model. Four different methods to integrate the fault and horizon models in a common model is described. The method is illustrated on an example from a real petroleum field with 18 interpreted faults that are handled stochastically.     

Water uptake of riparian plants in the lower Lhasa River Basin,South Tibetan Plateau using stable water isotopes

Riparian plants can adapt their water uptake strategies based on climatic and hydrological conditions within a river basin. The response of cold-alpine riparian trees to changes in water availability is poorly understood. The Lhasa River is a representative cold-alpine river in South Tibet and an under-studied environment. Therefore, a 96 km section of the lower Lhasa River was selected for a study on the water-use patterns of riparian plants. Plant water, soil water, groundwater and river water were measured at three sites for δ¹⁸O and δ²H values during the warm-wet and cold-dry periods in 2018. Soil profiles differed in isotope values between seasons and with the distance along the river. During the cold-dry period, the upper parts of the soil profiles were significantly affected by evaporation. During the warm-wet period, the soil profile was influenced by precipitation infiltration in the upper reaches of the study area and by various water sources in the lower reaches. Calculations using the IsoSource model indicated that the mature salix and birch trees (Salix cheilophila Schneid. and Betula platyphylla Suk.) accessed water from multiple sources during the cold-dry period, whereas they sourced more than 70% of their requirement from the upper 60–80 cm of the soil profile during the warm-wet period. The model indicated that the immature rose willow tree (Tamarix ramosissima Ledeb) accessed 66% of its water from the surface soil during the cold-dry period, but used the deeper layers during the warm-wet period. The plant type was not the dominant factor driving water uptake patterns in mature plants. Our findings can contribute to strategies for the sustainable development of cold-alpine riparian ecosystems. It is recommended that reducing plantation density and collocating plants with different rooting depths would be conducive to optimal plant growth in this environment.     

Policy options to streamline the carbon market for agricultural nitrous oxide emissions

The majority of emissions of nitrous oxide – a potent greenhouse gas (GHG) – are from agricultural sources, particularly nitrogen fertilizer applications. A growing focus on these emission sources has led to the development in the United States of GHG offset protocols that could enable payment to farmers for reducing fertilizer use or implementing other nitrogen management strategies. Despite the development of several protocols, the current regional scope is narrow, adoption by farmers is low, and policy implementation of protocols has a significant time lag. Here we utilize existing research and policy structures to propose an ‘umbrella’ approach for nitrogen management GHG emissions protocols that has the potential to streamline the policy implementation and acceptance of such protocols. We suggest that the umbrella protocol could set forth standard definitions common across multiple protocol options, and then modules could be further developed as scientific evidence advances. Modules could be developed for specific crops, regions, and practices. We identify a policy process that could facilitate this development in concert with emerging scientific research and conclude by acknowledging potential benefits and limitations of the approach.

Key policy insights

• Agricultural greenhouse gas market options are growing, but are still underutilized

• Streamlining protocol development through an umbrella process could enable quicker development of protocols across new crops, regions, and practices

• Effective protocol development must not compromise best available science and should follow a rigorous pathway to ensure appropriate implementation

     

Perceptions and responses to climate policy risks among California farmers

This paper considers how farmers perceive and respond to climate change policy risks, and suggests that understanding these risk responses is as important as understanding responses to biophysical climate change impacts. Based on a survey of 162 farmers in California, we test three hypotheses regarding climate policy risk: (1) that perceived climate change risks will have a direct impact on farmer's responses to climate policy risks, (2) that previous climate change experiences will influence farmer's climate change perceptions and climate policy risk responses, and (3) that past experiences with environmental policies will more strongly affect a farmer's climate change beliefs, risks, and climate policy risk responses. Using a structural equation model we find support for all three hypotheses and furthermore show that farmers’ negative past policy experiences do not make them less likely to respond to climate policy risks through participation in a government incentive program. We discuss how future research and climate policies can be structured to garner greater agricultural participation. This work highlights that understanding climate policy risk responses and other social, economic and policy perspectives is a vital component of understanding climate change beliefs, risks and behaviors and should be more thoroughly considered in future work.