应用神经网络建立加速度峰值衰减规律

在假定了加速度峰值衰减规律的形式后，本采用人工神经网络拟合实际加速度峰值观测资料来求取方程中的待定系数。为加速神经网络的训练，本设计了基于ＢＰ学习算法的目标分段网络训练法。     

基于GIS的城市抗震防灾系统的设计

讨论了以地理信息系统（ＧＩＳ）为开发平台的城市抗震防灾系统的设计，和系统建设的目的，原则及软件，硬件配置等问题，建立了系统的框架结构，设计了各个模块的主要功能，该思路正在结合具体的城市实施，探索为城市抗震防灾系统的建设提供新的经验。     

海啸危险性概率分析的不确定性研究

针对海啸危险性概率分析（PTHA）存在的较大不确定性问题,对不确定性产生来源进行了归纳和分类,提出了基于逻辑树与事件树方法合理量化不确定性的思路框架,并以马尼拉海啸潜源为研究对象,给出了量化震级上限、破裂面参数不确定的过程示例。数值模拟分析结果表明：海啸潜源震级上限的改变对危险性评估结果产生了显著影响,通过逻辑树方法可合理量化这种不确定性;地震破裂面的倾角、滑移角和破裂面积的随机不确定性对海啸危险性分析结果产生较为显著的影响,经事件树方法处理后的危险性结果保证率远高于20%,略低于80%,可基本满足工程抗海啸设计要求。     

用地理信息系统技术识别桥梁的地震危险性

引言美国东部的许多州、县和地区正面临的一个问题是如何评估大量现有桥梁的地震危险性潜势。这些桥中的大多数是在认识到有必要按地震设计规范来提高抗震能力之前建造的。由于东部许多州具有潜在的地震危险性,但发震的频度却不高,使这一问题变得非常尖锐。美国这些地区和世界其它地区的桥梁管理者都难以对此优先投资。地震评估的需要常常因满足一般的日常服务、维护和修建的需求而搁置。     

Fracture control of ground water flow and water chemistry in a rock aquitard

There are few studies on the hydrogeology of sedimentary rock aquitards although they are important controls in regional ground water flow systems. We formulate and test a three-dimensional (3D) conceptual model of ground water flow and hydrochemistry in a fractured sedimentary rock aquitard to show that flow dynamics within the aquitard are more complex than previously believed. Similar conceptual models, based on regional observations and recently emerging principles of mechanical stratigraphy in heterogeneous sedimentary rocks, have previously been applied only to aquifers, but we show that they are potentially applicable to aquitards. The major elements of this conceptual model, which is based on detailed information from two sites in the Maquoketa Formation in southeastern Wisconsin, include orders of magnitude contrast between hydraulic diffusivity (K/S(s)) of fractured zones and relatively intact aquitard rock matrix, laterally extensive bedding-plane fracture zones extending over distances of over 10 km, very low vertical hydraulic conductivity of thick shale-rich intervals of the aquitard, and a vertical hydraulic head profile controlled by a lateral boundary at the aquitard subcrop, where numerous surface water bodies dominate the shallow aquifer system. Results from a 3D numerical flow model based on this conceptual model are consistent with field observations, which did not fit the typical conceptual model of strictly vertical flow through an aquitard. The 3D flow through an aquitard has implications for predicting ground water flow and for planning and protecting water supplies.     

2021年9月16日四川泸县MS6.0地震强地面运动特征分析

2021年9月16日4时33分在四川省泸州市泸县发生M_S6.0地震,震中附近的强震动观测台网获取了1 320组三分向加速度记录,对有效记录进行常规处理后计算出地震动相关参数,并利用克里金插值方法得到峰值加速度PGA、峰值速度PGV和拟加速度反应谱的空间分布图。结果显示,极震区与中远场的长轴方向有较大差异,地震动表现出沿断裂走向衰减较慢的特性。通过与常用衰减关系预测值进行对比,分析了PGA和多个周期的拟加速度反应谱随距离的衰减特性,结果显示此次地震的PGA相比衰减关系预测值偏小,拟加速度反应谱相比各经验预测值呈现周期越大衰减变慢的特点,体现出川东南地区特有的衰减规律。最后分析了本次地震获得的最大加速度记录,进一步验证了局部地形和场地对地震动有显著影响。