Potential for growing Arabica coffee in the extreme south of Brazil in a warmer world

Agriculture appears to be one of the human activities most vulnerable to climatic changes due to its large dependence on environmental conditions. However, the diversity of Brazilian environmental conditions could be of great advantage to adapting this sector to new climatic conditions, which should be assessed as in this study on shifting Arabica coffee cultivation to the extreme south of the country. The methodology applied is the same the one used to define climatic risks in current productive regions of Brazil and their vulnerability to climatic change predicted by IPCC reports. The basic climatic parameters applied were frost probability and annual average temperature, since annual water deficit did not prove to be a restricting factor for Arabica coffee cultivation in the study area. The climatic conditions suitable for coffee production are: annual average temperature between 18??C and 22??C, annual water deficit less than 100?mm and frost probability (risk of lowest annual temperature less than 1??C) less than 25%. An area is said to have ??low climatic risks?? for coffee production when these three climatic conditions are met. Current climatic conditions were used and simulations of four temperature increases between 1??C and 4??C were also performed. The results indicated a substantial increase in the size of low climatic risks areas for the production of Arabica coffee in the extreme south of Brazil, mainly for mean temperature increases of 3??C in the study area in relation to present conditions. Increases of 2??C and 4??C were also favorable, but not as good as those obtained for 3??C. It should be underscored that areas with low climatic risks will be able to be found mainly in the extreme south of the study region, the border with Uruguay and North of Argentina.     

Stone-line formation processes documented by in situ-produced Be distribution, Jardim River basin, DF, Brazil

Concentrations of in situ-produced cosmogenic ¹⁰Be (T_1/2=1.5 Myr) were measured in quartz samples from a quartz vein and its connected stone line from the Jardim River basin, Distrito Federal, Brazil, in order to quantify the processes involved in the landscape evolution of that region. The exponential decrease of the ¹⁰Be concentrations along the quartz vein, as well as their systematic increase along the stone-line away from the quartz vein, suggests an autochthonous development. Two models allow to estimate the lateral displacement rate. A plugs model assuming that the sample depth, and hence the production rate, is constant, and a burial model assuming that the sample depth, and hence the production rate, varies through time, yield lateral displacement rate of 37±5 and 68±6 m Myr⁻¹, respectively.     

The effect of orthorhombic anisotropy and its implication for oil recovery and reservoir exploitation

Results of an experimental study of shear‐ and compressional‐wave propagation in an orthorhombically anisotropic medium are presented. The experiments were performed on a physical model consisting of two sets of fractures. The first set consisted of orientated rubber inclusions simulating weak material‐filled cracks. The second set consisted of a system of closely spaced parallel fractures simulated by thin plates of epoxy resin, superimposed orthogonally on the first set. Three cases of fracture orientations within the model were identified and studied. Case 1 is analogous to a jointed fracture reservoir with one vertical set of fluid‐filled cracks or fractures and one non‐filled horizontal set. This case is referred to as JFV. Case 2 is analogous to a double fracture reservoir with one horizontal set of fluid‐filled fractures or cracks and one non‐filled vertical set. This is referred to as DFH. Case 3 is analogous to a double fracture reservoir with two vertical sets of fractures or cracks, with only one fluid‐filled. Case 3 is referred to as DFV. A pulse transmission method was performed on all three modelled cases along the three principal axes. A directional variation in the compressional‐ and shear‐wave velocities, as well as distinct shear‐wave splitting, was observed. The elastic constants for each case were determined and differences between them were noted and compared with the controlled results of both layered (transverse isotropy, TI) and vertically fractured (azimuthally anisotropic models, VF) media. The differences in elastic moduli and velocities indicate the potential of recognizing the different fracture orientations and suggest an approach to designing a method of drilling to further enhance oil recovery and reservoir exploitation.     

Climate change impacts on sugarcane attainable yield in southern Brazil

This study evaluated the effects of climate change on sugarcane yield, water use efficiency, and irrigation needs in southern Brazil, based on downscaled outputs of two general circulation models (PRECIS and CSIRO) and a sugarcane growth model. For three harvest cycles every year, the DSSAT/CANEGRO model was used to simulate the baseline and four future climate scenarios for stalk yield for the 2050s. The model was calibrated for the main cultivar currently grown in Brazil based on five field experiments under several soil and climate conditions. The sensitivity of simulated stalk fresh mass (SFM) to air temperature, CO₂ concentration [CO₂] and rainfall was also analyzed. Simulated SFM responses to [CO₂], air temperature and rainfall variations were consistent with the literature. There were increases in simulated SFM and water usage efficiency (WUE) for all scenarios. On average, for the current sugarcane area in the State of São Paulo, SFM would increase 24 % and WUE 34 % for rainfed sugarcane. The WUE rise is relevant because of the current concern about water supply in southern Brazil. Considering the current technological improvement rate, projected yields for 2050 ranged from 96 to 129 t?ha^?1, which are respectively 15 and 59 % higher than the current state average yield.     

Statistical equilibrium distributions of baroclinic vortices in a rotating two-layer model at low Froude numbers

The point-vortex equilibrium statistical model of two-layer baroclinic quasigeostrophic vortices in an unbounded f-plane is examined. A key conserved quantity, angular momentum, serves to confine the vortices to a compact domain, thereby justifying the statistical mechanics model, and also eliminating the need for boundary conditions in a practical method for its resolution. The Metropolis method provides a fast and efficient algorithm for solving the mean field non-linear elliptic PDEs of the equilibrium statistical theory. A verification of the method is done by comparison with the exact Gaussian solution at the no interaction limit of zero inverse temperature. The numerical results include a geophysically and computationally relevant power law for the radii at which the most probable vortex distribution is non-vanishing: For fixed total circulation, and fixed average angular momentum, the radii of both layers are proportional to the square root of the inverse temperature β. By changing the chemical potentials μ of the runs, one is able to model the most probable vorticity distributions for a wide range of total circulation and energy. The most probable vorticity distribution obtained at low positive temperatures are consistently close to a radially symmetric flat-top profiles. At high temperatures, the radially symmetric vorticity profiles are close to the Gaussian distribution.     

Intercomparison of Boron Isotope and Concentration Measurements. Part II: Evaluation of Results

The Istituto di Geoscienze e Georisorse (IGG), on behalf and with the support of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), prepared eight geological materials (three natural waters and five rocks and minerals), intended for a blind interlaboratory comparison of measurements of boron isotopic composition and concentration. The materials were distributed to twenty seven laboratories - virtually all those performing geochemical boron isotope analyses in the world -which agreed to participate in the intercomparison exercise. Only fifteen laboratories, however, ultimately submitted the isotopic and/or concentration results they obtained on the intercomparison materials. The results demonstrate that interlaboratory reproducibility is not well reflected by the precision values reported by the individual laboratories and this observation holds true for both boron concentration and isotopic composition. The reasons for the discrepancies include fractionations due to the chemical matrix of materials, relative shift of the zero position on the δ¹¹B scale and a lack of well characterized materials for calibrating absolute boron content measurements. The intercomparison materials are now available at the IAEA (solid materials) and IGG (waters) for future distribution.