Projecting twenty-first century regional sea-level changes

We present regional sea-level projections and associated uncertainty estimates for the end of the 21 ^st century. We show regional projections of sea-level change resulting from changing ocean circulation, increased heat uptake and atmospheric pressure in CMIP5 climate models. These are combined with model- and observation-based regional contributions of land ice, groundwater depletion and glacial isostatic adjustment, including gravitational effects due to mass redistribution. A moderate and a warmer climate change scenario are considered, yielding a global mean sea-level rise of 0.54 ±0.19 m and 0.71 ±0.28 m respectively (mean ±1σ). Regionally however, changes reach up to 30 % higher in coastal regions along the North Atlantic Ocean and along the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, and up to 20 % higher in the subtropical and equatorial regions, confirming patterns found in previous studies. Only 50 % of the global mean value is projected for the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean, the Arctic Ocean and off the western Antarctic coast. Uncertainty estimates for each component demonstrate that the land ice contribution dominates the total uncertainty.     

High-harmonic geoid signatures related to glacial isostatic adjustment and their detectability by GOCE

The Earth’s asthenosphere and lower continental crust can regionally have viscosities that are one to several orders of magnitude smaller than typical mantle viscosities. As a consequence, such shallow low-viscosity layers could induce high-harmonic (spherical harmonics 50–200) gravity and geoid anomalies due to remaining isostasy deviations following Late-Pleistocene glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). Such high-harmonic geoid and gravity signatures would depend also on the detailed ice and meltwater loading distribution and history.ESA’s Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE) satellite mission, planned for launch in Summer 2008, is designed to map the quasi-static geoid with centimeter accuracy and gravity anomalies with milligal accuracy at a resolution of 100 km or better. This might offer the possibility of detecting gravity and geoid effects of low-viscosity shallow earth layers and differences of the effects of various Pleistocene ice decay scenarios. For example, our predictions show that for a typical low-viscosity crustal zone GOCE should be able to discern differences between ice-load histories down to length scales of about 150 km.One of the major challenges in interpreting such high-harmonic, regional-scale, geoid signatures in GOCE solutions will be to discriminate GIA-signatures from various other solid-earth contributions. It might be of help here that the high-harmonic geoid and gravity signatures form quite characteristic 2D patterns, depending on both ice load and low-viscosity zone model parameters.     

Sea-level changes, geoid and gravity anomalies due to Pleistocene deglaciation by means of multilayered, analytical Earth models

A new class of analytical, multilayered, viscoelastic Earth models based on PREM, with an incompressible, linear, viscoelastic Maxwell rheology, is applied to the modeling of global sea-level changes due to Pleistocene deglaciation. Until now, analytical schemes based on normal mode theory, have dealt with at most five layers, an elastic lithosphere, a three layered mantle including a transition zone, and a core (Spada et al., 1992. Geophys. J. Int. 109, 683–700). The novelty of our approach, used for the first time in sea-level studies, stands on an analytical scheme that can reproduce continuous elastic and rheological stratification when a sufficient number of layers is taken into account. We specifically assess the importance of our results for the Gravity Field and Steady-State Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE) satellite mission. GOCE will resolve the gravity field with a spatial resolution (half-wavelength) of 75 km and amplitude of 1.5 mgal, with a uniform coverage over the Earth, including presently unsurveyed, remote areas. Our models lead to post-glacial rebound induced free air gravity anomalies of a few mgals peak-to-peak in the harmonic degree range l=80–200, which will be discernible by GOCE. This finding demonstrates that post-glacial rebound has a high frequency component in the gravity field that can in principle be resolved by high resolution gravity satellite missions. We show that post-glacial rebound can contribute a substantial fraction to present-day sea-level variations and point out that for the Mediterranean Sea they are of the same order of magnitude as those induced by tectonic processes.     

Exploring high-end scenarios for local sea level rise to develop flood protection strategies for a low-lying delta—the Netherlands as an example

Sea level rise, especially combined with possible changes in storm surges and increased river discharge resulting from climate change, poses a major threat in low-lying river deltas. In this study we focus on a specific example of such a delta: the Netherlands. To evaluate whether the country’s flood protection strategy is capable of coping with future climate conditions, an assessment of low-probability/high-impact scenarios is conducted, focusing mainly on sea level rise. We develop a plausible high-end scenario of 0.55 to 1.15 m global mean sea level rise, and 0.40 to 1.05 m rise on the coast of the Netherlands by 2100 (excluding land subsidence), and more than three times these local values by 2200. Together with projections for changes in storm surge height and peak river discharge, these scenarios depict a complex, enhanced flood risk for the Dutch delta.     

Effects of low-viscous layers and a non-zero obliquity on surface stresses induced by diurnal tides and non-synchronous rotation: The case of Europa

In this study we present a semi-analytical Maxwell-viscoelastic model of the variable tidal stress field acting on Europa’s surface. In our analysis, we take into account surface stresses induced by the small eccentricity of Europa’s orbit, the non-zero obliquity of Europa’s spin axis - both acting on a diurnal 3.55-days timescale - and the reorientation of the ice shell as a result of non-synchronous rotation (NSR). We assume that Europa’s putative ocean is covered by an ice shell, which we subdivide in a low-viscous and warm lower ice layer (asthenosphere, viscosity 10¹²-10¹⁷ Pa s), and a high-viscous and cold upper ice layer (lithosphere, viscosity 10²¹ Pa s).Viscoelastic relaxation influences surface stresses in two ways: (1) through viscoelastic relaxation in the lithosphere and (2) through the viscoelastic tidal response of Europa’s interior. The amount of relaxation in the lithosphere is proportional to the ratio between the period of the forcing mechanism and the Maxwell time of the high-viscous lithosphere. As a result, this effect is only relevant to surface stresses caused by the slow NSR mechanism. On the other hand, the importance of the viscoelastic response on surface stresses is proportional to the ratio between the relaxation time (τ_j) of a given viscoelastic mode j and the period of the forcing function. On a diurnal timescale the fast relaxation of transient modes related to the low viscosity of the asthenosphere can alter the magnitude and phase shift of the diurnal stress field at Europa’s surface. The effects are largest, up to 20% in magnitude and 7° in phase for ice rigidities lower than 3.487 GPa, when the relaxation time of the aforementioned transient modes approaches the inverse of the average angular rate of Europa’s orbit. On timescales relevant for NSR (>10⁴ years) the magnitude and phase shift of NSR surface stresses can be affected by viscoelastic relaxation of the ocean-ice boundary. This effect, however, becomes only important when the behavior of the lithosphere w.r.t. NSR approaches the fluid limit, i.e. for strong relaxation in the lithosphere. The combination of NSR and diurnal stresses for different amounts of viscoelastic relaxation of NSR stresses in the lithosphere leads to a large variety of global stress fields that can explain the formation of the large diversity of lineament morphologies observed on Europa’s surface. Variation of the amount of relaxation in the lithosphere is likely due to changes in the spin rate of Europa and/or the rheological properties of the surface.In addition, we show that a small obliquity(<1°) can have a considerable effect on Europa’s diurnal stress field. A non-zero obliquity breaks the symmetric distribution of stress patterns with respect to the equator, thereby affecting the magnitude and orientation of the principal stresses at the surface. As expected, increasing the value of Europa’s obliquity leads to larger diurnal stresses at the surface, especially when Europa is located 90° away from the nodes formed by the intersection of its orbital and equatorial planes.