孟加拉湾季风爆发对南海季风爆发的影响Ⅰ:个例分析

利用南海季风试验分析场和NCAR向外长波辐射通量(OLR)资料研究了1998年孟加拉湾季风和南海季风爆发期间副热带环流的大尺度和天气尺度特征,探讨了孟加拉湾季风爆发与南海季风爆发之间的物理联系及孟加拉湾季风气旋的对流凝结潜热释放对副热带高压“撤出”南海的影响。结果表明,1998年5月爆发的东亚季风展现出典型的从孟加拉湾地区东传发展到南海地区的过程。随着孟加拉湾季风爆发和对流活动增强、北移,南海北部出现了低层西风和对流活动,领先于副热带高压在南海地区减弱和撤退。结果还显示南海北部地区的对流凝结加热有助于该地区经向温度梯度的反转,在热成风关系的制约下南海上空副热带高压脊面的垂直倾斜由冬季型转向夏季型,季风爆发。     

Implementation of the European Water Framework Directive: Natural variability associated with the CARLIT method on the rocky shores of the Ligurian Sea (Italy)

The Water Framework Directive (WFD) 2000/60/EC, adopted by the European Community in 2000 with the goal of maintaining and improving the aquatic environments, requires that member states achieve and maintain a good ecological status of all water bodies by 2015. In the marine context, the ecological status has to be quantified applying indexes based on appropriate key biological elements, which allow the categorization of water bodies into five Ecological Status (ES) classes. The CARLIT index is a cartographic monitoring tool enabling the Ecological Quality Ratio (EQR) to be calculated using macroalgae in coastal hard bottoms as a key biological element; at present it is being applied in Spain, France and Italy. To detect actual changes of water quality and, consequently, rely on the application of indexes for the assessment of the ecological status in the marine environment, it is necessary to evaluate their sensitivity to natural variability at different temporal and spatial scales. In this study we present a first quantification of natural (spatial and temporal) variability of EQR‐CARLIT quality assessment in 2006 and 2007 along the Ligurian coast (North‐Western Mediterranean, Italy). The EQR‐CARLIT values recorded along the Ligurian coastline show that natural variability of EQR‐CARLIT is low and that it does not affect the attribution of a given stretch of coast to a particular ES class, in agreement with the major human pressures acting in the area (urbanization, river load, sea‐farming). A small‐scale variability was detected, strengthening the use of cartography of the whole rocky shore, whenever possible, or, alternatively, the assessment of the ecological status for long stretches of coast, to encompass the small‐scale variability due to local factors.     

Multi-instrument ground-based observations of a travelling convection vortices event

A coordinated ground-based observational campaign using the IMAGE magnetometer network, EISCAT radars and optical instruments on Svalbard has made possible detailed studies of a travelling convection vortices (TCV) event on 6 January 1992. Combining the data from these facilities allows us to draw a very detailed picture of the features and dynamics of this TCV event. On the way from the noon to the drawn meridian, the vortices went through a remarkable development. The propagation velocity in the ionosphere increased from 2.5 to 7.4 km s⁻¹, and the orientation of the major axes of the vortices rotated from being almost parallel to the magnetic meridian near noon to essentially perpendicular at dawn. By combining electric fields obtained by EISCAT and ionospheric currents deduced from magnetic field recordings, conductivities associated with the vortices could be estimated. Contrary to expectations we found higher conductivities below the downward field aligned current (FAC) filament than below the upward directed. Unexpected results also emerged from the optical observations. For most of the time there were no discrete aurora at 557.7 nm associated with the TCVs. Only once did a discrete form appear at the foot of the upward FAC. This aurora subsequently expanded eastward and westward leaving its centre at the same longitude while the TCV continued to travel westward. Also we try to identify the source regions of TCVs in the magnetosphere and discuss possible generation mechanisms.     

Mesoscale Vortex Generation and Merging Process： A Case Study Associated with a Post-Landfall Tropical Depression

An observational analysis of satellite blackbody temperature (TBB) data and radar images suggests that the mesoscale vortex generation and merging process appeared to be essential for a tropical-depression-related heavy rain event in Shanghai, China. A numerical simulation reproduced the observed mesoscale vortex generation and merging process and the corresponding rain pattern, and then the model outputs were used to study the related dynamics through diagnosing the potential vorticity (PV) equation. The t...     

Microphysical Characteristics of Extreme-Rainfall Convection over the Pearl River Delta Region,South China from Polarimetric Radar Data during the Pre-summer Rainy Season

During the pre-summer rainy season, heavy rainfall occurs frequently in South China. Based on polarimetric radar observations, the microphysical characteristics and processes of convective features associated with extreme rainfall rates(ERCFs) are examined. In the regions with high ERCF occurrence frequency, sub-regional differences are found in the lightning flash rate(LFR) distributions. In the region with higher LFRs, the ERCFs have larger volumes of high reflectivity factor above the freezin...     

A western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity prediction scheme

A western North Pacific tropical cyclone (TC) intensity prediction scheme (WIPS) is developed based on TC samples from 1996 to 2002 using the stepwise regression technique, with the western North Pacific divided into three sub-regions: the region near the coast of East China (ECR), the South China Sea region (SCR), and the far oceanic region (FOR). Only the TCs with maximum sustained surface wind speed greater than 17.2 m s⁻¹ are used in the scheme. Potential predictors include the climatology and persistence factors, synoptic environmental conditions, potential intensity of a TC and proximity of a TC to land. Variances explained by the selected predictors suggest that the potential intensity of a TC and the proximity of a TC to land are significant in almost all the forecast equations. Other important predictors include vertical wind shear in ECR, 500-hPa geopotential height anomaly at the TC center, zonal component of TC translation speed in SCR, intensity change of TC 12 or 24 h prior to initial time, and the longitude of TC center in FOR.     

Variability of tree transpiration across three zones in a southeastern U.S. Piedmont watershed

Quantifying the spatial variability of species-specific tree transpiration across hillslopes is important for estimating watershed-scale evapotranspiration (ET) and predicting spatial drought effects on vegetation. The objectives of this study are to (1) assess sap flux density (J_s) and tree-level transpiration (T_s) across three contrasting zones a (riparian buffer, mid-hillslope and upland-hillslope, (2) determine how species-specific J_s responds to vapour pressure deficit (VPD) and (3) estimate watershed-level transpiration (T_w) using T_s derived from each zone. During 2015 and 2016, we measured J_s in eight tree species in the three topographic zones in a small 12-ha forested watershed in the Piedmont region of central North Carolina. In the dry year of 2015, loblolly pine (Pinus taeda), Virginia pine (Pinus virginiana) and sweetgum (Liquidambar styraciflua) J_s rates were significantly higher in the riparian buffer when compared to the other two zones. In contrast, J_s rates in tulip poplar (Liriodendron tulipifera) and red maple (Acer rubrum) were significantly lower in the buffer than in the mid-hillslope. Daily T_s varied by zone and ranged from 10 to 93 L/day in the dry year and from 9 to 122 L/day in the wet year (2016). J_s responded nonlinearly to VPD in all species and zones. Annual T_w was 447, 377 and 340 mm based on scaled-J_s data for the buffer, mid-hillslope and upland-hillslope, respectively. We conclude that large spatial variability in J_s and scaled T_w was driven by differences in soil moisture at each zone and forest composition. Consequently, spatial heterogeneity of vegetation and soil moisture must be considered when accurately quantifying watershed level ET.     

Disaster preparedness of local governments in Panay Island,Philippines

Disaster preparedness plans reduce future damages, but may lack testing to assess their effectiveness in operation. This study used the state-designed Local Government Unit Disaster Preparedness Journal: Checklist of Minimum Actions for Mayors in assessing the readiness to natural hazards of 92 profiled municipalities in central Philippines inhabited by 2.4 million people. Anchored on the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005–2015, it assessed their preparedness in 4 criteria—systems and structures, policies and plans, building competencies, and equipment and supplies. Data were analyzed using statistical package for social sciences, frequency count, percentage, and weighted mean. The local governments were found highly vulnerable to tropical cyclone and flood while vulnerable to earthquake, drought, and landslide. They were partially prepared regardless of profile, but the coastal, middle-earning, most populated, having the least number of villages, and middle-sized had higher levels of preparedness. Those highly vulnerable to earthquake and forest fire were prepared, yet only partially prepared to flood, storm surge, drought, tropical cyclone, tornado, tsunami and landslide. The diverse attitude of stakeholders, insufficient manpower, and poor database management were the major problems encountered in executing countermeasures. Appointing full-time disaster managers, developing a disaster information management system, massive information drive, organizing village-based volunteers, integrating disaster management into formal education, and mandatory trainings for officials, preparing for a possible major volcanic eruption and crafting a comprehensive plan against emerging emergencies like the COVID-19 pandemic may lead to a 360° preparedness.

     

AN OPERATIONAL STATISTICAL SCHEME FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE INDUCED RAINFALL FORECAST

A non-parametric method is used in this study to analyze and predict short-term rainfall due to tropical cyclones(TCs) in a coastal meteorological station. All 427 TCs during 1953-2011 which made landfall along the Southeast China coast with a distance less than 700 km to a certain meteorological station- Shenzhen are analyzed and grouped according to their landfalling direction, distance and intensity. The corresponding daily rainfall records at Shenzhen Meteorological Station(SMS) during TCs landfalling period(a couple of days before and after TC landfall) are collected. The maximum daily rainfall(R-24) and maximum 3-day accumulative rainfall(R-72) records at SMS for each TC category are analyzed by a non-parametric statistical method, percentile estimation. The results are plotted by statistical boxplots, expressing in probability of precipitation. The performance of the statistical boxplots is evaluated to forecast the short-term rainfall at SMS during the TC seasons in 2012 and 2013. Results show that the boxplot scheme can be used as a valuable reference to predict the short-term rainfall at SMS due to TCs landfalling along the Southeast China coast.