Mono- and dicyclic unsaturated triterpenoid hydrocarbons in sediments from Lake Masoko (Tanzania) widely extend the botryococcene family

A mixture of C₃₃–C₃₇ botryococcenes and partially reduced derivatives was isolated from ca. 32,000 year old sediment from Lake Masoko, a freshwater crater lake in the Rungwe Range area (Tanzania). Botryococcenes and derivatives accounted for 246 μg/g dry sediment and for >92% of the hydrocarbon fraction; 1D and 2D nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy (NMR) and mass spectrometry allowed the structure of the dominant botryococcene (43% of hydrocarbon fraction) to be established, after purification using high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). The compound is a novel tetraunsaturated dicyclic C₃₄ botryococcene and is named C₃₄ masokocene. Overall, the structures of six other novel botryococcenes and four partially reduced derivatives were tentatively assigned. The structures of the new biomarkers, three dicyclic C₃₄–C₃₆ botryococcenes (or masokocenes) and seven monocyclic C₃₄–C₃₇ analogues are discussed along with their biosynthetic relationship. The high abundance of such polyunsaturated compounds preserved in 32,000 year old sediment from the lake indicates an aquatic ecosystem dominated at the time by the green alga Botryococcus braunii, as well very good preservation of the organic matter.     

The Bayesian detection of discontinuities in a polynomial regression and its application to the cycle-slip problem

This paper deals with the problem of detecting and correcting cycle-slips in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) phase data by exploiting the Bayesian theory. The method is here applied to undifferenced observations, because repairing cycle-slips already at this stage could be a useful pre-processing tool, especially for a network of permanent GNSS stations. If a dual frequency receiver is available, the cycle-slips can be easily detected by combining two phase observations or phase and range observations from a single satellite to a single receiver. These combinations, expressed in a distance unit form, are completely free from the geometry and depend only on the ionospheric effect, on the electronic biases and on the initial integer ambiguities; since these terms are expected to be smooth in time, at least in a short period, a cycle-slip in one or both the two carriers can be modelled as a discontinuity in a polynomial regression. The proposed method consists in applying the Bayesian theory to compute the marginal posterior distribution of the discontinuity epoch and to detect it as a maximum a posteriori (MAP) in a very accurate way. Concerning the cycle-slip correction, a couple of simultaneous integer slips in the two carriers is chosen by maximazing the conditional posterior distribution of the discontinuity amplitude given the detected epoch. Numerical experiments on simulated and real data show that the discontinuities with an amplitude 2 or 3 times larger than the noise standard deviation are successfully identified. This means that the Bayesian approach is able to detect and correct cycle-slips using undifferenced GNSS observations even if the slip occurs by one cycle. A comparison with the scientific software BERNESE 5.0 confirms the good performance of the proposed method, especially when data sampled at high frequency (e.g. every 1 s or every 5 s) are available.     

Lake-Level Fluctuations and Small-Scale Vegetation Patterns During the Late Glacial in The Netherlands

Late glacial changes in the vegetation were studied in and around a former lake on the southeastern side of a coversand ridge near Milheeze (southern Netherlands). Analyses of microfossils and macroremains and AMS ¹⁴C dating were performed on four sediment cores along a transect from sand ridge to the lake centre. Small-scale vegetation patterns and lake-level fluctuations were reconstructed in detail based on the information provided by the transect. For the first time in The Netherlands, cores along a transect within one lake were used to reconstruct the amplitude of late glacial lake-level fluctuations. Near Milheeze, a small and shallow lake was formed during the Bølling. The large increase in the water level during the Bølling and early Allerød, and the transition to more eutrophic conditions at the start of the Allerød, were probably related to the disappearance of permafrost. During the Allerød, open birch and pine woodlands developed in the area. In the lake, organic deposits accumulated, and the lake size and depth fluctuated. At the start of the Younger Dryas, higher lake water levels were recorded and woodlands became more open as a result of both a drop in the temperature and an increase in the effective precipitation. During the late Younger Dryas the lake water level dropped as the climate became drier and temperatures slightly increased. Accumulation of organic deposits in the lake ceased at the end of the Younger Dryas, which was caused by a drop in the water level in combination with the hydroseral succession process within the lake itself. The climatic signal reflected in the late glacial flora and lake-level fluctuations agree well with other published data from The Netherlands.     

A multidisciplinary multi-scale framework for assessing vulnerabilities to global change

Terrestrial ecosystems provide a number of vital services for people and society, such as food, fibre, water resources, carbon sequestration, and recreation. The future capability of ecosystems to provide these services is determined by changes in socio-economic factors, land use, atmospheric composition, and climate. Most impact assessments do not quantify the vulnerability of ecosystems and ecosystem services under such environmental change. They cannot answer important policy-relevant questions such as 'Which are the main regions or sectors that are most vulnerable to global change?’ 'How do the vulnerabilities of two regions compare?’ 'Which scenario is the least harmful for a sector?’This paper describes a new approach to vulnerability assessment developed by the Advanced Terrestrial Ecosystem Analysis and Modelling (ATEAM) project. Different ecosystem models, covering biodiversity, agriculture, forestry, hydrology, and carbon sequestration are fed with the same Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Each model gives insights into specific ecosystems, as in traditional impact assessments. Moreover, by integrating the results in a vulnerability assessment, the policy-relevant questions listed above can also be addressed. A statistically derived European environmental stratification forms a key element in the vulnerability assessment. By linking it to other quantitative environmental stratifications, comparisons can be made using data from different assessments and spatial scales.     

Evaluating property buyouts and disaster recovery assistance (Rebuild) options in Canada: A comparative analysis of Constance Bay,Ontario and Pointe Gatineau,Quebec

Natural Hazards - How have property buyouts and disaster recovery assistance programs been implemented in Canadian communities? This paper compares contrasting policies and programs in two Canadian...     

A coupled ice-ocean ecosystem model for 1-D and 3-D applications in the Bering and Chukchi Seas

Primary production in the Bering and Chukchi Seas is strongly influenced by the annual cycle of sea ice. Here pelagic and sea ice algal ecosystems coexist and interact with each other. Ecosystem modeling of sea ice associated phytoplankton blooms has been understudied compared to open water ecosystem model applications. This study introduces a general coupled ice-ocean ecosystem model with equations and parameters for 1-D and 3-D applications that is based on 1-D coupled ice-ocean ecosystem model development in the landfast ice in the Chukchi Sea and marginal ice zone of Bering Sea. The biological model includes both pelagic and sea ice algal habitats with 10 compartments： three phytoplankton （pelagic diatom, flagellates and ice algae： D, F, and Ai） , three zooplankton （copepods, large zooplankton, and microzooplankton ： ZS, ZL, ZP） , three nutrients （ nitrate ＋ nitrite, ammonium, silicon ： NO3 , NH4, Si） and detritus （Det）. The coupling of the biological models with physical ocean models is straightforward with just the addition of the advection and diffusion terms to the ecosystem model. The coupling with a multi-category sea ice model requires the same calculation of the sea ice ecosystem model in each ice thickness category and the redistribution between categories caused by both dynamic and thermodynamic forcing as in the physical model. Phytoplankton and ice algal self-shading effect is the sole feedback from the ecosystem model to the physical model.     

Seals, cod and forage fish: A comparative exploration of variations in the theme of stock collapse and ecosystem change in four Northwest Atlantic ecosystems

The facts: four Northwest Atlantic ecosystems, three cod stock collapses 15 years ago (plus one severely depleted), seals now top predator in all ecosystems, all had cod as a top predator before collapse, groundfish declines in all areas, forage base increased in most systems. No recovery in any system. Have these ecosystems fundamentally changed? Why? The challenge: compare and contrast these four ecosystems. The answer: using mass balance models, empirical data and a suite of ecosystem indicators, we explore how and why these systems have changed over time. At the ecosystem and community level, we see broad similarities between ecosystems. However, structurally and functionally these systems have shifted to an alternate state, with changes in predator structure, trophic structure and flow.     

Social capital,individual responses to heat waves and climate change adaptation: An empirical study of two UK cities

It has been claimed that high social capital contributes to both positive public health outcomes and to climate change adaptation. Strong social networks have been said to support individuals and collective initiatives of adaptation and enhance resilience. As a result, there is an expectation that social capital could reduce vulnerability to risks from the impacts of climate change in the health sector. This paper examines evidence on the role social networks play in individuals’ responses to heat wave risk in a case study in the UK. Based on interviews with independently living elderly people and their primary social contacts in London and Norwich, we suggest that strong bonding networks could potentially exacerbate rather than reduce the vulnerability of elderly people to the effects of heat waves. Most respondents interviewed did not feel that heat waves posed a significant risk to them personally, and most said that they would be able to cope with hot weather. Bonding networks could perpetuate rather than challenge these narratives and therefore contribute to vulnerability rather than ameliorating it. These results suggest a complex rather than uniformly positive relationship between social capital, health and adaptation to climate change.     

Marée de l'écorce: L'effet du dephasage dans l'analyse des observations

Résumé L'amplitude relativeA de la marée de l'écorce se déduit du rapport entre les variations de pesanteur théorique et observée. La comparaison directe de leurs valeurs horaires permet de déterminer ce rapport, mais cette méthode néglige le déphasage éventuel de la marée de l'écorce par rapport aux forces génératrices. L'erreur (négative) qui en résulte sur les valeurs habituelles deA est d'environ 11% (en supposant un déphasage de 1 h), si l'on compare uniquement les amplitudes extrêmes; elle atteint 14% si l'on tient compte de l'ensemble des valeurs horaires.Si l'effet du déphasage se fait peu ressentir aux heures où la marée est importante, on conçoit qu'il introduise une erreur relative considérable sur les valeurs horaires correspondant à une marée faible. Le calcul montre cependant qu'on n'améliore guère lè résultat global en éliminant systématiquement ces dernières.

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Summary The relative amplitudeA of the earth tide is deduced from the ratio of the theoretical variations of gravity to the observed. The direct comparison of their hourly values allows the determination of this ratio, but this method neglects the eventual dephasing of the earth tide over the generating forces. The resulting (negative) error on the usual values ofA is about 11% (supposing a dephasing of 1 hour), if only extreme amplitudes are compared; it reaches 14% if the totality of the hourly values is taken into account.If the effect of the dephasing is slight at the hours when the tide has a great value, it is conceivable that it introduces a noticeable relative error on the hourly readings corresponding to a low value. The computation shows nevertheless that the total result is little improved by systematic elimination of the latter.

     

Probable causes for cyanobacterial expansion in the Baltic Sea: Role of anoxia and phosphorus retention

This study corroborates the hypothesis that nitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria have probably occurred as an important component of the phytoplankton community in the Baltic Sea at least since brackish water conditions were initiated 8,500¹⁴C yr BP. Pigment analyses indicate that extensive occurrences started prior to a sharp increase in nutrient levels dated to 7,100¹⁴C yr BP. The cyanobacteria could have functioned as a natural trigger for eutrophication in the Baltic Sea by importing nitrogen. This is also verified by a contemporaneous drop in the δ¹⁵N values from 4‰ to around 2‰. We further conclude that the spreading of cyanobacteria was probably caused by a decrease in nitrogen∶phosphorus (N∶P) in the water mass that resulted from the intrusion of oceanic water with high P levels. The fractionation of P in sediments indicated that iron-bound P was efficiently sequestered under anoxic conditions that occurred as a consequence of the establishment of a stable stratification caused by the marine intrusion. This pool only showed minor variations around 3 μmol g⁻¹ at the freshwater-brackish water transition. All P pools except the CaCO₃ fraction showed a distinct increase around 9,300¹⁴C yr BP prior to the transition. We interpreted this increase as a change in preservation of organic matter or in the source of the sediment. Slightly after 4,000¹⁴C yr BP there was a dramatic drop in all P pools without any corresponding decreases in total N and carbon. Total P decreased from around 75 to 25–30 μmol g⁻¹. The most dramatic drop occurred in the organic bound and the detrital apatite fractions, which decreased by a factor of 3–4. We explain this as a preferential regeneration of P, especially organic P, compared to other nutrients due to more prevalent anoxic conditions.