Oil dispersal modelling: reanalysis of the Rena oil spill using open-source modelling tools

ABSTRACT

Oil spill forecast modelling is typically used immediately after a spill to predict oil dispersal and promote mobilisation of more effective response operations. The aim of this work was to map oil dispersal after the grounding of the MV Rena on Astrolabe Reef and to verify the results against observations. Model predictions were broadly consistent with observed distribution of oil contamination. However, some hot spots of oil accumulation, likely due to surf-zone and rip current circulation, were not well represented. Additionally, the model was run with 81 differing wind conditions to show that the events occurring during the grounding represented the typical likely behaviour of an oil spill on Astrolabe Reef. Oil dispersal was highly dependent on prevailing wind patterns; more accurate prediction would require better observations of local wind patterns. However, comparison of predictions with observations indicated that the GNOME model was an effective low-cost approach.     

In vitro screening for endocrine disruptive activity in selected South African harbours and river mouths

Various waterborne anthropogenic contaminants disrupt the endocrine systems of wildlife and humans, targeting reproductive pathways, among others. Very little is known, however, regarding the occurrence of endocrine disruptive activity in South African freshwater ecosystems, and coastal ecosystems have not been studied in this regard. In a first attempt to investigate endocrine disruptive activity in South African coastal waters, surface water samples collected from harbours, river mouths and estuaries in three metropolitan municipalities, eThekwini (which includes Durban), Nelson Mandela (specifically Port Elizabeth Harbour) and City of Cape Town, were screened for (anti) oestrogenicity and (anti)androgenicity using recombinant yeast bioassays. Moreover, levels of the female hormone 17β-(o)estradiol (E2) were determined in all samples, as well as a selection of hydrocarbons in the eThekwini samples. A high proportion of samples collected from eThekwini were oestrogenic, whereas none from Port Elizabeth Harbour and only a single river mouth sampled in the City of Cape Town were oestrogenic. E2 was detected in all the samples tested, but at higher concentrations at the eThekwini and City of Cape Town localities than Port Elizabeth Harbour. In addition, the recombinant yeast assays revealed that anti-androgenicity was widespread, being detected in the majority of samples screened apart from those representing Port Elizabeth Harbour. Conversely, no anti-oestrogenic or androgenic activity was detected. Anti-androgenicity did not associate with hydrocarbon loads, providing evidence that other anti-androgens were responsible for the observed activity. The present data suggest potential reproductive disruption in marine and estuarine fauna inhabiting the eThekwini and City of Cape Town regions.     

Erodibility of soft freshwater sediments in Markermeer: the role of bioturbation by meiobenthic fauna

The Markermeer is a large and shallow man-made freshwater lake in the Netherlands, characterized by its high turbidity. As part of a study aiming to mitigate this high turbidity, we studied the water–bed exchange processes of the lake’s muddy bed. The upper centimeter’s–decimeter’s of the lake bed sediments mainly consists of soft anoxic mud. Recent measurements have proved the existence of a thin oxic layer on top of this soft anoxic mud. This oxic layer, which is much easier to be eroded than the anoxic mud, is believed to be related with Markermeer’s high-turbidity levels. Our hypothesis is that the thin oxic layer develops from the anoxic mud, enhanced by bioturbation. Actually, we will demonstrate that it is the bioturbated state of the bed that increases its erodability, and not the oxidation state of the sediments. In particular, we will refer to bioturbation caused by meiobenthic fauna. The objective of this study is therefore to determine the influence of the development of the thin oxic layer on the water–bed exchange processes, as well as to establish the role of bioturbation on those processes. This is done by quantifying the erosion rate as a function of bed shear stresses, and at different stages of the development of the oxic layer. Our experiments show that bioturbation increases the rate at which Markermeer sediments are eroded by almost an order of magnitude. The short-term fine sediment dynamics in Markermeer are found to be driven by the complex and highly dynamic interactions between physics, chemistry, and biology. Finally, the long-term fine sediment dynamics are driven by the erosion of the historical deposits in the lake’s bed, which is only possible after bioturbation, and which leads to an increase of the stock of sediments in the lake’s muddy bed.     

Fine grain sediment transport and deposition in the Patos Lagoon–Cassino beach sedimentary system

Extensive mud deposits superimposed on the predominantly sandy inner continental shelf adjacent to the Patos Lagoon estuary, indicates that the Lagoon is a potential source of fine sediments to the coastal sedimentary system. The lagoon is large and shallow, and the water movement is mainly controlled by wind-driven set-up and set-down. The mean river inflow is around 2000 m³ s⁻¹, although peak flow rates exceeding 20,000 m³ s⁻¹ have been observed during El Niño periods. Though the tidal elevations are small, tidal velocities in the lagoon's inlet can be significant due to the large extension of the backwaters. Moreover, significant exchange flows can be generated between the estuary and coastal area due to barotropic pressure gradients established as a function of wind and freshwater discharge. The predominant net flow is seawards, but opposite near-bed flows due to pronounced vertical salinity stratification can also be observed. The coastal area is characterized by small tidal effects, large scale ocean circulation, wind-induced residual flows and wave-driven currents, where the waves originate from swell or are locally generated.     

On harbour siltation in the fresh-salt water mixing region

In this paper a novel series of field measurements are presented, which are the first to elucidate the processes influencing siltation in Botlek Harbour. Botlek Harbour is situated at the limit of saline water intrusion in the Rotterdam Waterway. Normally, after the ebb tide fresher river waters are found in the Rotterdam Waterway at the location of Botlek Harbour. On the flooding tide, the tip of the salt wedge is advected along the Rotterdam Waterway towards the mouth of Botlek Harbour. Hence on flood, a lock-exchange mechanism operates between Botlek Harbour and the Rotterdam Waterway. On the flood tide, when there is a supply of suspended particulate matter (SPM) associated with the presence of the estuarine turbidity maximum (ETM) at the mouth of the harbour, the survey data show exchange of SPM into the harbour. This lock-exchange process is found to be the dominant cause for SPM transport into the harbour. This is further substantiated by an analysis of the mass transport mechanisms. In this analysis, the vertical profiles of the instantaneous velocity, salinity and SPM concentration fields, recorded during the surveys, were decomposed into advective and dispersive transport components. The results of this analysis indicate that the correlation between the lock-exchange mechanism on the flood tide with the availability of SPM for exchange and efficient trapping, dominate the total exchange of SPM (97%). Hence, the increase in measured near-bed SPM concentration within the harbour is ascribed to tidal advection of saline water and the ETM along the Rotterdam Waterway. Tidal advection controls the density difference between the estuary and harbour, as well as the availability of SPM for exchange at the entrance to Botlek Harbour. The location of the ETM at the tip of the salt wedge is a key factor in supplying SPM to Botlek Harbour. Consequently the timing of the availability of SPM at the mouth of the harbour needs to be considered in siltation studies. The survey data suggest that Botlek Harbour basin has a 100% trapping efficiency. Analysis of 5 months of data, from a measuring rig located within the harbour, show excursions of the limit of the salt wedge and ETM. These excursions are likely to affect siltation of upstream harbours. Salinity-induced density gradients control the transport and subsequent trapping of SPM in the estuary in close proximity to the harbour entrance, the exchange of SPM between the estuary and harbour, and the trapping of SPM in the harbour basin.     

Determination of the wave climate for the southern Brazilian shelf

The main objective of this study is the characterization of the wave climate in the Southern Brazilian Shelf (SBS) based on a thorough review of existing field data and on numerical modeling experiments. A quantitative knowledge about the wave climate of this area is important to understand the mechanisms driving episodic mud bank attachments to the sandy shore, and the interaction of these banks with the flow and waves. The statistical analysis of existent data on the wave climate throughout the SBS indicates that the predominant wave directions are 100° and 160° (E–SE), with wave heights varying between 1 and 1.50 m. The wave period varies between 6 and 14 s, with predominance of mean wave period of 8 s (sea conditions) and 12 s (swell conditions). The spectral wave model SWAN version 40.41 [Booij, N., Haagsma, I.J.G., Holthuijsen, L.H., Kieftenburg, A.T.M.M., Ris, R.C., van der Westhuysen, A.J., Zijlema, M., 2004. SWAN Cycle III Version 40.41 Users Manual, Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands, p. 118, http://fluidmechanics.tudelft.nl/swan/index.htm] is used to simulate the wave climate for the region. Special attention is given to Cassino Beach, describing the wave climate observed during the Cassino Experiment, carried out in 2005. The verification of the standard SWAN model was carried out based on the comparison between numerical modeling results and available data of significant wave height, peak period, mean wave direction and energy density for the period relative to February of 1998. Results showed satisfactory model predictions of significant wave height and reasonably accurate predictions of peak spectral wave period and direction. The model performance is also considered satisfactory in the representation of the wave climate of the region when the wave spectrum has only one spectral peak, but presents limitations for bimodal wave spectrum. When two spectral peaks are observed, the SWAN model agrees with the spectral level observed in the low frequency, but underestimates the spectral level in the high-frequency band. When considering the presence of mud deposits in the area, model results predict that although the presence of mud attenuates most of the wave energy on the low frequency peak, it has a smaller effect in attenuating the wave energy on the high frequency peak.     

Post-injection trapping of mobile CO<Subscript><Emphasis Type="Bold">2</Emphasis></Subscript> in deep aquifers: Assessing the importance of model and parameter uncertainties

Predicting the fate of the injected CO₂ is crucial for the safety of carbon storage operations in deep saline aquifers: especially the evolution of the position, the spreading and the quantity of the mobile CO₂ plume during and after the injection has to be understood to prevent any loss of containment. Fluid flow modelling is challenging not only given the uncertainties on subsurface formation intrinsic properties (parameter uncertainty) but also on the modelling choices/assumptions for representing and numerically implementing the processes occurring when CO₂ displaces the native brine (model uncertainty). Sensitivity analysis is needed to identify the group of factors which contributes the most to the uncertainties in the predictions. In this paper, we present an approach for assessing the importance of model and parameter uncertainties regarding post-injection trapping of mobile CO₂. This approach includes the representation of input parameters, the choice of relevant simulation outputs, the assessment of the mobile plume evolution with a flow simulator and the importance ranking for input parameters. A variance-based sensitivity analysis is proposed, associated with the ACOSSO-like meta-modelling technique to tackle the issues linked with the computational burden posed by the use of long-running simulations and with the different types of uncertainties to be accounted for (model and parameter). The approach is tested on a potential site for CO₂ storage in the Paris basin (France) representative of a project in preliminary stage of development. The approach provides physically sound outcomes despite the challenging context of the case study. In addition, these outcomes appear very helpful for prioritizing the future characterisation efforts and monitoring requirements, and for simplifying the modelling exercise.