Oil dispersal modelling: reanalysis of the Rena oil spill using open-source modelling tools

ABSTRACT

Oil spill forecast modelling is typically used immediately after a spill to predict oil dispersal and promote mobilisation of more effective response operations. The aim of this work was to map oil dispersal after the grounding of the MV Rena on Astrolabe Reef and to verify the results against observations. Model predictions were broadly consistent with observed distribution of oil contamination. However, some hot spots of oil accumulation, likely due to surf-zone and rip current circulation, were not well represented. Additionally, the model was run with 81 differing wind conditions to show that the events occurring during the grounding represented the typical likely behaviour of an oil spill on Astrolabe Reef. Oil dispersal was highly dependent on prevailing wind patterns; more accurate prediction would require better observations of local wind patterns. However, comparison of predictions with observations indicated that the GNOME model was an effective low-cost approach.     

GPS network monitors the Western Alps' deformation over a five-year period: 1993–1998

  The Western Alps are among the best studied collisional belts with both detailed structural mapping and also crustal geophysical investigations such as the ECORS and EGT seismic profile. By contrast, the present-day kinematics of the belt is still largely unknown due to small relative motions and the insufficient accuracy of the triangulation data. As a consequence, several tectonic problems still remain to be solved, such as the amount of N–S convergence in the Occidental Alps, the repartition of the deformation between the Alpine tectonic units, and the relation between deformation and rotation across the Alpine arc. In order to address these problems, the GPS ALPES group, made up of French, Swiss and Italian research organizations, has achieved the first large-scale GPS surveys of the Western Alps. More than 60 sites were surveyed in 1993 and 1998 with a minimum observation of 3 days at each site. GPS data processing has been done by three independent teams using different software. The different solutions have horizontal repeatabilities (N–E) of 4–7 mm in 1993 and 2–3 mm in 1998 and compare at the 3–5-mm level in position and 2-mm/yr level in velocity. A comparison of 1993 and 1998 coordinates shows that residual velocities of the GPS marks are generally smaller than 2 mm/yr, precluding a detailed tectonic interpretation of the differential motions. However, these data seem to suggest that the N–S compression of the Western Alps is quite mild (less than 2 mm/yr) compared to the global convergence between the African and Eurasian plate (6 mm/yr). This implies that the shortening must be accomodated elsewhere by the deformation of the Maghrebids and/or by rotations of Mediterranean microplates. Also, E–W velocity components analysis supports the idea that E–W extension exists, as already suggested by recent structural and seismotectonic data interpretation. Received: 27 November 2000 / Accepted: 17 September 2001     

In vitro screening for endocrine disruptive activity in selected South African harbours and river mouths

Various waterborne anthropogenic contaminants disrupt the endocrine systems of wildlife and humans, targeting reproductive pathways, among others. Very little is known, however, regarding the occurrence of endocrine disruptive activity in South African freshwater ecosystems, and coastal ecosystems have not been studied in this regard. In a first attempt to investigate endocrine disruptive activity in South African coastal waters, surface water samples collected from harbours, river mouths and estuaries in three metropolitan municipalities, eThekwini (which includes Durban), Nelson Mandela (specifically Port Elizabeth Harbour) and City of Cape Town, were screened for (anti) oestrogenicity and (anti)androgenicity using recombinant yeast bioassays. Moreover, levels of the female hormone 17β-(o)estradiol (E2) were determined in all samples, as well as a selection of hydrocarbons in the eThekwini samples. A high proportion of samples collected from eThekwini were oestrogenic, whereas none from Port Elizabeth Harbour and only a single river mouth sampled in the City of Cape Town were oestrogenic. E2 was detected in all the samples tested, but at higher concentrations at the eThekwini and City of Cape Town localities than Port Elizabeth Harbour. In addition, the recombinant yeast assays revealed that anti-androgenicity was widespread, being detected in the majority of samples screened apart from those representing Port Elizabeth Harbour. Conversely, no anti-oestrogenic or androgenic activity was detected. Anti-androgenicity did not associate with hydrocarbon loads, providing evidence that other anti-androgens were responsible for the observed activity. The present data suggest potential reproductive disruption in marine and estuarine fauna inhabiting the eThekwini and City of Cape Town regions.     

Evaluation et representation des erreurs sur les deformations d'un reseau geodesique: Utilisation de la methode de Monte Carlo

Résumé Le problème de la comparison des données obtenues à différentes époques sur un réseau geódésique pour en déduire les déformations subies par ce réseau au cours du temps est discuté, et conduit à proposer un mode de représentation simultané des déformations et des erreurs, utilisant les tenseurs de déformations classiques avec une méthode de Monte Carlo permettant de simuler un grand nombre de séries de mesures.

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The repetition of geodetic measurements is employed in many cases to monitor ground deformations, and is widely used for civil engineering, geodynamics and slope instabilities studies. Generally the networks used are small and the main problem to solve is how to detect stable zones, i.e. where the signal/noise ratio of the deformation measurements are below unity. This is commonly done using statistical tests. We present here a new tool, the simultaneous display of the deformations and their related errors, using a classical Monte Carlo methodology when computing strain tensors. Such a representation provides to non-specialists in a quit efficient way the significance level of the deformation patterns. Some examples show that even when statistical test show a poor confidence level, this methodology may give anyway in some situations the pattern of the deformation (but—obviously—not its amplitude).

     

Post-injection trapping of mobile CO<Subscript><Emphasis Type="Bold">2</Emphasis></Subscript> in deep aquifers: Assessing the importance of model and parameter uncertainties

Predicting the fate of the injected CO₂ is crucial for the safety of carbon storage operations in deep saline aquifers: especially the evolution of the position, the spreading and the quantity of the mobile CO₂ plume during and after the injection has to be understood to prevent any loss of containment. Fluid flow modelling is challenging not only given the uncertainties on subsurface formation intrinsic properties (parameter uncertainty) but also on the modelling choices/assumptions for representing and numerically implementing the processes occurring when CO₂ displaces the native brine (model uncertainty). Sensitivity analysis is needed to identify the group of factors which contributes the most to the uncertainties in the predictions. In this paper, we present an approach for assessing the importance of model and parameter uncertainties regarding post-injection trapping of mobile CO₂. This approach includes the representation of input parameters, the choice of relevant simulation outputs, the assessment of the mobile plume evolution with a flow simulator and the importance ranking for input parameters. A variance-based sensitivity analysis is proposed, associated with the ACOSSO-like meta-modelling technique to tackle the issues linked with the computational burden posed by the use of long-running simulations and with the different types of uncertainties to be accounted for (model and parameter). The approach is tested on a potential site for CO₂ storage in the Paris basin (France) representative of a project in preliminary stage of development. The approach provides physically sound outcomes despite the challenging context of the case study. In addition, these outcomes appear very helpful for prioritizing the future characterisation efforts and monitoring requirements, and for simplifying the modelling exercise.     

The dust distribution within the inner coma of comet P/Halley 1982i: encounter by Giotto's impact detectors

Analysis of the data from Giotto's Dust Impact Detection System experiment (DIDSY) is presented. These data represent measurement of the size of dust grains incident on the Giotto dust shield along its trajectory through the coma of comet P/Halley on 1986 March 13/14. First detection occurred at some 287000 km distance from the nucleus on the inbound leg; the majority of the DIDSY subsystems remained operational after closest approach (604 km) yielding the last detection at about 202000 km from the nucleus. In order to improve the data coverage (and especially for the smallest grains, to approximately 10(-19) kg particle mass), data from the PIA instrument has been combined with DIDSY data. Flux profiles are presented for the various mass channels showing, to a first approximation, a 1/R2 flux dependence, where R is the distance of the detection point from the cometary nucleus, although significant differences are noted. Deviations from this dependence are observed, particularly close to the nucleus. From the flux profiles, mass and geometrical area distributions for the dust grains are derived for the trajectory through the coma. Groundbased CCD imaging of the dust continuum in the inner coma at the time of encounter is also used to derive the area of grains intercepted by Giotto. The results are consistent with the area functions derived by Giotto data and the low albedo of the grains deduced from infrared emission. For the close encounter period (-5 min to +5 min), the cumulative mass distribution function has been investigated, initially in 20 second periods; there is strong evidence from the data for a steepening of the index of the mass distribution for masses greater than 10(-13) kg during passage through dust jets which is not within the error limits of statistical uncertainty. The fluences for dust grains along the entire trajectory is calculated; it is found that extrapolation of the spectrum determined at intermediate masses (cumulative mass index alpha = 0.85) is not able to account for the spacecraft deceleration as observed by the Giotto Radio Science Experiment and by ESOC tracking operations. Data at large masses (>10(-8) kg) recently analysed from the DIDSY data set show clear evidence of a decrease in the mass distribution index at these masses within the coma, and it is shown that such a value of the mass index can provide sufficient mass for consistency with the observed deceleration. The total particulate mass output from the nucleus of comet P/Halley at the time of encounter would be dependent on the maximum mass emitted if this change in slope observed in the coma were also applicable to the emission from the nucleus; this matter is discussed in the text. The flux time profiles have been converted through a simple approach to modeling of the particle trajectories to yield an indication of nucleus surface activity. There is indication of an enhancement in flux at t approximately -29 s corresponding to crossing of the dawn terminator, but the flux detected prior to crossing of the dawn terminator is shown to be higher than predicted by simple modelling. Further enhancements corresponding to jet activity are detected around +190 s and +270 s.     

Geodetic evidence for rifting in afar, 2. Vertical displacements

In a previous paper we have proposed a two-dimensional elastic model which accounts for the horizontal displacements measured for the rifting episode which occurred in November 1978 in Afar. In this paper we demonstrate that the same model accounts for the measured vertical displacements as well as for the horizontal ones when the thickness of the lithosphere is introduced in the model as a new parameter. After comparison with similar data obtained in recent years in Iceland, we propose a global interpretation for the rifting phenomenon.     

Results from combining tectonic observations and SAR interferometry for the 1995 Grevena earthquake: A summary

Soon after the 1995 Grevena M_s = 6.6 event, we mapped the Palaeochori earthquake fault break. These tectonic observations are combined with the surface displacement field determined with the SAR interferometry to model the fault dislocation at depth.     

Comparative genetic structure in two high-dispersal prawn species from the south-west Indian Ocean

The penaeid prawns Fenneropenaeus indicus and Metapenaeus monoceros support shallow-water prawn fisheries in the south-west Indian Ocean. They are sympatric and have similar life histories, including developmental stages that depend on estuarine and marine habitats and a short dispersal duration. Nevertheless, M. monoceros juveniles display a more generalist habitat preference in estuaries and recruit to offshore habitats during a different season than F. indicus. We hypothesised that these differences would affect dispersal patterns, leading to dissimilar geographic genetic structure between the two taxa. Given their short dispersal phase, we also hypothesised that the Mozambique Channel would form a barrier to dispersal between the southeastern African mainland and Madagascar sites. Population differentiation was assessed based on analysis of mitochondrial DNA control-region sequences. Both species displayed high haplotype and low nucleotide diversity. Pairwise ?_ST statistics supported the existence of admixed populations along the African mainland sites for both species, with geographic distance isolating populations at the extremes of the sampled range (Kenya and east coast of South Africa). The Madagascar population differed significantly from African mainland populations. The concordant patterns in population differentiation suggest that F. indicus and M. monoceros can be considered as single African stocks, or fisheries management units.