Oil dispersal modelling: reanalysis of the Rena oil spill using open-source modelling tools

ABSTRACT

Oil spill forecast modelling is typically used immediately after a spill to predict oil dispersal and promote mobilisation of more effective response operations. The aim of this work was to map oil dispersal after the grounding of the MV Rena on Astrolabe Reef and to verify the results against observations. Model predictions were broadly consistent with observed distribution of oil contamination. However, some hot spots of oil accumulation, likely due to surf-zone and rip current circulation, were not well represented. Additionally, the model was run with 81 differing wind conditions to show that the events occurring during the grounding represented the typical likely behaviour of an oil spill on Astrolabe Reef. Oil dispersal was highly dependent on prevailing wind patterns; more accurate prediction would require better observations of local wind patterns. However, comparison of predictions with observations indicated that the GNOME model was an effective low-cost approach.     

Penetration of bomb radiocarbon in the tropical Indian Ocean measured by means of accelerator mass spectrometry

Radiocarbon measurements performed on seawater samples by means of accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) enable to reduce by a factor of 2000 the water sample size needed for the¹⁴C measurements. Therefore no chemical treatment on board the oceanographic vessel is required. Seventy-four AMS¹⁴C determinations on samples collected in the tropical-equatorial Indian Ocean during the second leg of the INDIGO program (1986) are presented and compared with the β-counting results obtained during the same campaign and the GEOSECS program (1978). A pronounced reduction of the equatorial¹⁴C deficit suggests that substantial amounts of bomb-¹⁴C are associated with the westward flowing Pacific water which enters the Indian Ocean via passages through the Indonesia archipelago and/or to meridional mixing with¹⁴C-rich water of the southern subtropical gyre.     

Late Pleistocene paleo-oceanography of the Norwegian-Greenland Sea: Benthic foraminiferal evidence

Fluctuations in benthic foraminiferal faunas over the last 130,000 yr in four piston cores from the Norwegian Sea are correlated with the standard worldwide oxygen-isotope stratigraphy. One species, Cibicides wuellerstorfi, dominates in the Holocene section of each core, but alternates downcore with Oridorsalis tener, a species dominant today only in the deepest part of the basin. O. tener is the most abundant species throughout the entire basin during periods of particularly cold climate when the Norwegian Sea presumably was ice covered year round and surface productivity lowered. Portions of isotope Stages 6, 3, and 2 are barren of benthic foraminifera; this is probably due to lowered benthic productivity, perhaps combined with dilution by ice-rafted sediment; there is no evidence that the Norwegian Sea became azoic. The Holocene and Substage 5e (the last interglacial) are similar faunally. This similarity, combined with other evidence, supports the presumption that the Norwegian Sea was a source of dense overflows into the North Atlantic during Substage 5e as it is today. Oxygen-isotope analyses of benthic foraminifera indicate that Norwegian Sea bottom waters warmer than they are today from Substage 5d to Stage 2, with the possible exception of Substage 5a. These data show that the glacial Norwegian Sea was not a sink for dense surface water, as it is now, and thus it was not a source of deep-water overflows. The benthic foraminiferal populations of the deep Norwegian Sea seem at least as responsive to near-surface conditions, such as sea-ice cover, as they are to fluctuations in the hydrography of the deep water. Benthic foraminiferal evidence from the Norwegian Sea is insufficient in itself to establish whether or not the basin was a source of overflows into the North Atlantic at any time between the Substage 5e/5d boundary at 115,000 yr B.P. and the Holocene.     

In vitro screening for endocrine disruptive activity in selected South African harbours and river mouths

Various waterborne anthropogenic contaminants disrupt the endocrine systems of wildlife and humans, targeting reproductive pathways, among others. Very little is known, however, regarding the occurrence of endocrine disruptive activity in South African freshwater ecosystems, and coastal ecosystems have not been studied in this regard. In a first attempt to investigate endocrine disruptive activity in South African coastal waters, surface water samples collected from harbours, river mouths and estuaries in three metropolitan municipalities, eThekwini (which includes Durban), Nelson Mandela (specifically Port Elizabeth Harbour) and City of Cape Town, were screened for (anti) oestrogenicity and (anti)androgenicity using recombinant yeast bioassays. Moreover, levels of the female hormone 17β-(o)estradiol (E2) were determined in all samples, as well as a selection of hydrocarbons in the eThekwini samples. A high proportion of samples collected from eThekwini were oestrogenic, whereas none from Port Elizabeth Harbour and only a single river mouth sampled in the City of Cape Town were oestrogenic. E2 was detected in all the samples tested, but at higher concentrations at the eThekwini and City of Cape Town localities than Port Elizabeth Harbour. In addition, the recombinant yeast assays revealed that anti-androgenicity was widespread, being detected in the majority of samples screened apart from those representing Port Elizabeth Harbour. Conversely, no anti-oestrogenic or androgenic activity was detected. Anti-androgenicity did not associate with hydrocarbon loads, providing evidence that other anti-androgens were responsible for the observed activity. The present data suggest potential reproductive disruption in marine and estuarine fauna inhabiting the eThekwini and City of Cape Town regions.     

Post-injection trapping of mobile CO<Subscript><Emphasis Type="Bold">2</Emphasis></Subscript> in deep aquifers: Assessing the importance of model and parameter uncertainties

Predicting the fate of the injected CO₂ is crucial for the safety of carbon storage operations in deep saline aquifers: especially the evolution of the position, the spreading and the quantity of the mobile CO₂ plume during and after the injection has to be understood to prevent any loss of containment. Fluid flow modelling is challenging not only given the uncertainties on subsurface formation intrinsic properties (parameter uncertainty) but also on the modelling choices/assumptions for representing and numerically implementing the processes occurring when CO₂ displaces the native brine (model uncertainty). Sensitivity analysis is needed to identify the group of factors which contributes the most to the uncertainties in the predictions. In this paper, we present an approach for assessing the importance of model and parameter uncertainties regarding post-injection trapping of mobile CO₂. This approach includes the representation of input parameters, the choice of relevant simulation outputs, the assessment of the mobile plume evolution with a flow simulator and the importance ranking for input parameters. A variance-based sensitivity analysis is proposed, associated with the ACOSSO-like meta-modelling technique to tackle the issues linked with the computational burden posed by the use of long-running simulations and with the different types of uncertainties to be accounted for (model and parameter). The approach is tested on a potential site for CO₂ storage in the Paris basin (France) representative of a project in preliminary stage of development. The approach provides physically sound outcomes despite the challenging context of the case study. In addition, these outcomes appear very helpful for prioritizing the future characterisation efforts and monitoring requirements, and for simplifying the modelling exercise.     

Facies system of the Eastern Barents Sea since the last glaciation to present

Twenty-two sediment cores raised from the central and eastern parts of the Barents Sea have been studied to reconstruct the evolution of the facies system since the Late Weichselian glaciation. Multiproxy records reveal four lithostratigraphic units, which reflect major development stages of paleoenvironments. Age control is provided by 23 AMS ¹⁴C dates for Holocene sections of four cores. Continental moraine deposits of the last glaciation are overlain by proximal glaciomarine facies of the initial deglaciation phase. During this phase, the Barents Sea ice sheet detached from the ground resulting in seawater penetration into troughs, iceberg calving, deposition of IRD and fine-grained glacier meltwater load in newly formed marine basins. The main deglaciation phase is characterized by pulsed sedimentation from various gravity flows resulting in accumulation of distal glaciomarine facies comprising laminated clay and sand sequences with minor IRD. Redistribution of fine-grained suspended matter by bottom currents and brine-induced nepheloid flows combined with biogenic processes and minor ice rafting caused facies diversity of the Holocene marine sediments. The Holocene facies of shelf depressions reflect rather high, but variable productivity responding to climate changes and variations of Atlantic water inflow into the Barents Sea.     

The dust distribution within the inner coma of comet P/Halley 1982i: encounter by Giotto's impact detectors

Analysis of the data from Giotto's Dust Impact Detection System experiment (DIDSY) is presented. These data represent measurement of the size of dust grains incident on the Giotto dust shield along its trajectory through the coma of comet P/Halley on 1986 March 13/14. First detection occurred at some 287000 km distance from the nucleus on the inbound leg; the majority of the DIDSY subsystems remained operational after closest approach (604 km) yielding the last detection at about 202000 km from the nucleus. In order to improve the data coverage (and especially for the smallest grains, to approximately 10(-19) kg particle mass), data from the PIA instrument has been combined with DIDSY data. Flux profiles are presented for the various mass channels showing, to a first approximation, a 1/R2 flux dependence, where R is the distance of the detection point from the cometary nucleus, although significant differences are noted. Deviations from this dependence are observed, particularly close to the nucleus. From the flux profiles, mass and geometrical area distributions for the dust grains are derived for the trajectory through the coma. Groundbased CCD imaging of the dust continuum in the inner coma at the time of encounter is also used to derive the area of grains intercepted by Giotto. The results are consistent with the area functions derived by Giotto data and the low albedo of the grains deduced from infrared emission. For the close encounter period (-5 min to +5 min), the cumulative mass distribution function has been investigated, initially in 20 second periods; there is strong evidence from the data for a steepening of the index of the mass distribution for masses greater than 10(-13) kg during passage through dust jets which is not within the error limits of statistical uncertainty. The fluences for dust grains along the entire trajectory is calculated; it is found that extrapolation of the spectrum determined at intermediate masses (cumulative mass index alpha = 0.85) is not able to account for the spacecraft deceleration as observed by the Giotto Radio Science Experiment and by ESOC tracking operations. Data at large masses (>10(-8) kg) recently analysed from the DIDSY data set show clear evidence of a decrease in the mass distribution index at these masses within the coma, and it is shown that such a value of the mass index can provide sufficient mass for consistency with the observed deceleration. The total particulate mass output from the nucleus of comet P/Halley at the time of encounter would be dependent on the maximum mass emitted if this change in slope observed in the coma were also applicable to the emission from the nucleus; this matter is discussed in the text. The flux time profiles have been converted through a simple approach to modeling of the particle trajectories to yield an indication of nucleus surface activity. There is indication of an enhancement in flux at t approximately -29 s corresponding to crossing of the dawn terminator, but the flux detected prior to crossing of the dawn terminator is shown to be higher than predicted by simple modelling. Further enhancements corresponding to jet activity are detected around +190 s and +270 s.     

The last interglacial ocean

The final effort of the CLIMAP project was a study of the last interglaciation, a time of minimum ice volume some 122,000 yr ago coincident with the Substage 5e oxygen isotopic minimum. Based on detailed oxygen isotope analyses and biotic census counts in 52 cores across the world ocean, last interglacial sea-surface temperatures (SST) were compared with those today. There are small SST departures in the mid-latitude North Atlantic (warmer) and the Gulf of Mexico (cooler). The eastern boundary currents of the South Atlantic and Pacific oceans are marked by large SST anomalies in individual cores, but their interpretations are precluded by no-analog problems and by discordancies among estimates from different biotic groups. In general, the last interglacial ocean was not significantly different from the modern ocean. The relative sequencing of ice decay versus oceanic warming on the Stage 6/5 oxygen isotopic transition and of ice growth versus oceanic cooling on the Stage 5e/5d transition was also studied. In most of the Southern Hemisphere, the oceanic response marked by the biotic census counts preceded (led) the global ice-volume response marked by the oxygen-isotope signal by several thousand years. The reverse pattern is evident in the North Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico, where the oceanic response lagged that of global ice volume by several thousand years. As a result, the very warm temperatures associated with the last interglaciation were regionally diachronous by several thousand years. These regional lead-lag relationships agree with those observed on other transitions and in long-term phase relationships; they cannot be explained simply as artifacts of bioturbational translations of the original signals.     

Holocene Sedimentation History in the Southern Novaya Zemlya Trench

It is shown that sediments accumulated in the Southern Novaya Zemlya Trench at both deglaciation and marine stages. Permanent sea ice sheet existed during the deglaciation, and glacier meltwater was intensely delivered to the bottom layer. Along with the dominant sediment supply from the Southern Island of Novaya Zemlya, southern continental sources also played a noticeable role at that stage. Seasonal sea ice freezing led to the formation of cold brines at the marine stage. Like paleoproductivity, these processes were irregular. Dissolution of calcareous benthic foraminiferal tests considerably intensified after about 7 ka BP owing to a stronger Atlantic water advection into the Western Arctic and consequent increase in paleoproductivity, whereas the relative role of southern sedimentary provenances decreased. Sedimentation rates were constant (45 cm/ka) during the entire marine stage.