The GGOS as the backbone for global observing and local monitoring: A user driven perspective

A key geodetic contribution to both the three Global Observing Systems and initiatives like the European Global Monitoring for Environment and Security is an accurate, long-term stable, and easily accessible reference frame as the backbone. Many emerging scientific as well as non-scientific high-accuracy applications require access to an unique, technique-independent reference frame decontaminated for short-term fluctuations due to global Earth system processes. Such a reference frame can only be maintained and made available through an observing system such as the Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS), which is currently implemented and expected to provide sufficient information on changes in the Earth figure, its rotation and its gravity field. Based on a number of examples from monitoring of infrastructure, point positioning, maintenance of national references frames to global changes studies, likely future accuracy requirements for a global terrestrial reference frame are set up as function of time scales. Expected accuracy requirements for a large range of high-accuracy applications are less than 5 mm for diurnal and sub-diurnal time scales, 2–3 mm on monthly to seasonal time scales, better than 1 mm/year on decadal to 50 years time scales. Based on these requirements, specifications for a geodetic observing system meeting the accuracy requirements can be derived.     

GPS for real-time earthquake source determination and tsunami warning systems

We identify the key design aspects of a GPS-based system (and in the future, GNSS-based systems) that could contribute to real-time earthquake source determination and tsunami warning systems. Our approach is based on models of both transient and permanent displacement of GPS stations caused by large earthquakes, while considering the effect of GPS errors on inverted earthquake source parameters. Our main conclusions are that (1) the spatial pattern, magnitude, and timing of permanent displacement of GPS stations can be inverted for the earthquake source and so predict the 3D displacement field of the ocean bottom, thus providing the initial conditions for tsunami models, and (2) there are no inherently limiting factors arising from real-time orbit and positioning errors, provided sufficient near-field GPS stations are deployed. This signal could be readily exploited by GPS networks currently in place, and will be facilitated by the IGS Real-Time Project as it comes to fruition.     

大陆深俯冲过程中的流体及变质化学地球动力学

俯冲带发生的化学作用导致了广泛的脱气作用和岩浆活动,控制着全球物质循环和大陆地壳的生长,是地球演化的基础.实际上,俯冲带化学作用是板块俯冲过程中流体形成、运移和流体-岩石(矿物)相互作用的结果.     

Exploring high-end scenarios for local sea level rise to develop flood protection strategies for a low-lying delta—the Netherlands as an example

Sea level rise, especially combined with possible changes in storm surges and increased river discharge resulting from climate change, poses a major threat in low-lying river deltas. In this study we focus on a specific example of such a delta: the Netherlands. To evaluate whether the country’s flood protection strategy is capable of coping with future climate conditions, an assessment of low-probability/high-impact scenarios is conducted, focusing mainly on sea level rise. We develop a plausible high-end scenario of 0.55 to 1.15 m global mean sea level rise, and 0.40 to 1.05 m rise on the coast of the Netherlands by 2100 (excluding land subsidence), and more than three times these local values by 2200. Together with projections for changes in storm surge height and peak river discharge, these scenarios depict a complex, enhanced flood risk for the Dutch delta.     

Late Quaternary relative sea-level changes and the role of glaciation upon continental shelves

Sea levels of the past 20 kyr are largely determined by the response of the Earth to the last ice age. Consequently, sea-level indicators are an important source of information about the interaction between cryosphere and hydrosphere and the solid Earth. Based on the material presented at a recent European Science Foundation conference, the present paper pin-points some of the topics currently under discussion with respect to sea-level evidence found on continental shelves. These topics include possible effects of erosion and changes in palaeotidal ranges on indicators of former relative sea levels as well as the problems involved in the determination of palaeo-water depth in addition to former sea levels. More evidence is being gathered for substantial small-scale patterns in the sea-level changes at or nearby to the former ice margins. These patterns are not reproduced by the available geophysical models, which reconcile on first-order level only the large-scale pattern.     

Post-glacial rebound and present-day three-dimensional deformations

The WEGENER^† activities related to the study of post-glacial rebound are presented together with a review of the present state-of-the-art in this study field. Post-glacial rebound research is an unique tool for studying the viscoelastic behaviour of the Earth's mantle on time scales of thousands of years. The viscosity structure of the Earth's mantle determined from an inversion of observations of glacially induced deformations is a basic requirement for modelling long-term phenomena such as the convection in the Earth's mantle, and for better understanding unsolved questions such as the nature of the mantle discontinuities or the vertical scale of convection.First, an introduction to the scientific background is given, and the three principal ingredients for post-glacial rebound studies, namely the ice model, the Earth model, and the observations are briefly considered. For the ice model, the uncertainties due to a trade-off between ice model and Earth rheology are outlined. The different approaches used to model the Earth and its deformations in post-glacial rebound studies are discussed emphasising the preliminary nature of the derived rheologies and depth dependencies. The observations, in particular the relative sea-level changes and three-dimensional surface deformations, are described with special emphasis on observational gaps. Based on the discussion of the ingredients, an outline of the future developments in post-glacial rebound research is attempted with particular emphasis on the Earth model and the theory of deformations.For several decades extreme efforts have been made to precisely monitor the land uplift in Scandinavia. However, for the height component the existing data still are associated with large uncertainties while reliable data on the horizontal component are practically nil. The ongoing long-term (longer than ten years) spacegeodetic measurements are likely to provide the three-dimensional deformations with the spatial resolution and accuracy required in order to substantially contribute to post-glacial rebound studies. Thus, present-day three-dimensional deformations of the Earth's surface beneath and around the former ice sheets as a constraint for the mantle rheology and viscosity structure will increasingly become important as they become known from space-geodetic measurements with high spatial resolution and an accuracy approaching the mm/a-level.