Preliminary results of seismic hazard assessment in the Sannio-Matese area of Southern Italy

The seismic hazard in the Sannio-Matese area has been worked out by a modification of the McGuire (1976) computing programme, taking into account the influence of nine potential seismic source zones.The method uses truncated-quadratic intensity-frequency distribution and azimuth-dependent intensity attenuation derived from isoseismal maps for each of the seismogenetic sources. A new modification has been introduced to take into account different decay of the intensity in the near (to VIII degree) and far (from VIII degree) field.Different assumptions about maximum possible intensities and truncation of intensity-frequency laws are used to evaluate the effects of the uncertainties on the computed hazard at high intensities. Intensities associated with different level of annual probability are computed for five test sites in the considered area. Maps displaying the expected intensity for a mean return period of 500 years (pa 0.002) are presented and compared with observed intensities.Presented at the XXIst General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission, Symposium on Methods of Seismic Hazard Assessment in Europe, Sofia, 23–27 August 1988.     

Assessment of seismic hazard for the Sannio-Matese area of Southern Italy — A summary

The working group on Test Regions for Evaluation of Methods for Seismic Hazard Assessment in Europe (TERESA), consisted of 15 members from 10 different European countries. Methods and experience gathered in these countries have been compared and discussed for two test areas in Europe: the Sannio-Matese region, Southern Italy, with high seismic activity, and the border region between Belgium, The Netherlands, and Federal Republic of Germany, with low activity.This paper summarizes the results for one of the test areas, Sannio-Matese. Most of the participants used statistical procedures to assess earthquake hazard, receiving results in terms of probability of occurrence for intensity as the ground-motion parameter. It was found that careful preparation of input data and parameters is the major influencing factor, therefore most of the efforts of the working group was devoted to this task.The scatter of the obtained results of the group is considerable, mainly because of the uncertainties in the data and the subjectiveness involved in the procedures. For better control of both factors, more objective methods have to be developed.     

Seismic hazard computations for regions with low earthquake activity — A case study for the Belgium,The Netherlands and NW Germany area

The algorithms to evaluate seismic hazard, used and/or developed by five teams participating in the TERESA project, applied to the low seismicity area Belgium, The Netherlands and NW Germany are compared. The main differences in the results can be explained by the majority criterion of Egozcue et al. (1989), the differences in the upper bound and zonification and, in some cases, by a higher attenuation.     

Expected loss‐based alarm threshold set for earthquake early warning systems

Earthquake early warning systems (EEWS) seem to have potential as tools for real‐time seismic risk management and mitigation. In fact, although the evacuation of buildings requires warning time not available in many urbanized areas threatened by seismic hazard, they may still be used for the real‐time protection of critical facilities using automatic systems in order to reduce the losses subsequent to a catastrophic event. This is possible due to the real‐time seismology, which consists of methods and procedures for the rapid estimation of earthquake features, as magnitude and location, based on measurements made on the first seconds of the P‐waves. An earthquake engineering application of earthquake early warning (EEW) may be intended as a system able to issue the alarm, if some recorded parameter exceeds a given threshold, to activate risk mitigation actions before the quake strikes at a site of interest. Feasibility analysis and design of such EEWS require the assessment of the expected loss reduction due to the security action and set of the alarm threshold. In this paper a procedure to carry out these tasks in the performance‐based earthquake engineering probabilistic framework is proposed. A merely illustrative example refers to a simple structure assumed to be a classroom. Structural damage and non‐structural collapses are considered; the security action is to shelter occupants below the desks. The cost due to a false alarm is assumed to be related to the interruption of didactic activities. Results show how the comparison of the expected losses, for the alarm‐issuance and non‐issuance cases, allows setting the alarm threshold on a quantitative and consistent basis, and how it may be a tool for the design of engineering applications of EEW. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluation of seismic energy demand

In this paper, a method is proposed in order to obtain a simplified representation of hysteretic and input energy spectra. The method is based on the evaluation of the equivalent number of cycles correlated to the earthquake characteristics by the proposed seismic index I_D. This procedure allows us to obtain peak values of the hysteretic and input energy that depend on the demanded ductility, on the seismic index I_D and on the peak pseudo‐velocity. The assessment of the input energy represents a first step towards the definition of a damage potential index capable of taking into account the effect of the duration of the ground motions. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatial modelling and uncertainty assessment of pyroclastic cover thickness in the Sorrento Peninsula

Assessing spatial variability of soil thickness is a critical issue for understanding and predicting slope processes. The present work was aimed at estimating the spatial scales at which the variation of pyroclastic cover thickness occurs in a sample area in the Sorrento Peninsula (Italy). Stochastic simulation was used to understand the spatial variability of pyroclastic cover thickness on Mount Pendolo and to assess its spatial uncertainty. In the study area, covering about 0.7 km², thickness measurements were collected using electrical resistivity tomography profiles, continuous core drillings and steel rod penetrometric tests. Variographic analysis revealed the occurrence of an anisotropic behaviour along the N50 and N140 directions. In the latter anisotropic direction, a nested variogram was fitted including (1) a long-range component which could be related to large-scale factors, like the curvature of the slope and contributing area and (2) a shorter scale variation which is probably associated with the occurrence of denudation processes or to the articulate cover/bedrock interface. To assess the spatial variability and uncertainty of pyroclastic cover thickness, a stochastic simulation algorithm was used and 500 equally probable images of cover thickness were yielded. The results showed that a better thickness distribution map can be drawn by simulating the data collected on the slope and at the footslope separately. The approach also allowed delineating the areas characterized by greater uncertainty, suggesting supplementary measurements to further improve the cover thickness distribution model, thus reducing the uncertainty.     

Treatment of ground-motion predictive relationships for the reference seismic hazard map of Italy

In the framework of the 2004 reference seismic hazard map of Italy the amplitude of the strong-motion (expressed in terms of Peak Horizontal Acceleration with 10% probability of non-exceedence in 50 years, referred to average hard ground conditions) was computed using different predictive relationships. Equations derived in Italy and in Europe from strong-motion data, as well as a set of weak and strong-motion based empirical predictive relationships were employed in a logic tree procedure, in order to capture the epistemic uncertainty affecting ground-motion attenuation. This article describes the adjustments and conversions required to eliminate the incompatibilities amongst the relations. Particularly significant are distance conversions and style-of-faulting adjustments, as well as the problems related to the use of regional relations, such as the selection of a reference depth, the quantification of random variability and the strong-motion prediction. Moreover, a regional attenuation relationship specific for volcanic areas was also employed, allowing a more realistic evaluation of seismic hazard, as confirmed by the attenuation of macroseismic intensities.     

Modelling the transverse behaviour of circular tunnels in structured clayey soils during earthquakes

Acta Geotechnica - The paper presents novel results from advanced numerical simulations of the transverse behaviour of shallow circular tunnels in natural clays accounting for soil structure...