基于PSR-WSVM模型的边坡位移预测

为建立高精度的边坡位移预测模型，采用相空间重构（PSR）将边坡位移时间序列数据转换为多维数据，同时构造小波核函数改进的支持向量机模型，建立PSR-WSVM模型并应用于边坡位移预测。将PSR-WSVM模型预测结果与传统支持向量机（SVM）模型、小波支持向量机（WSVM）模型和基于相空间重构的支持向量机（PSR-SVM）模型预测结果进行对比，通过平均绝对误差（MAE）、平均绝对误差百分比（MAPE）和均方根误差（RMSE）3个精度评价指标验证PSR-WSVM模型的可行性。工程实例结果表明，PSR-WSVM模型预测结果的3个精度评价指标都优于另外3种模型，边坡位移预测的精度明显提升。     

Implementation of a coupled plastic damage distinct lattice spring model for dynamic crack propagation in geomaterials

This paper studies dynamic crack propagation by employing the distinct lattice spring model (DLSM) and 3‐dimensional (3D) printing technique. A damage‐plasticity model was developed and implemented in a 2D DLSM. Applicability of the damage‐plasticity DLSM was verified against analytical elastic solutions and experimental results for crack propagation. As a physical analogy, dynamic fracturing tests were conducted on 3D printed specimens using the split Hopkinson pressure bar. The dynamic stress intensity factors were recorded, and crack paths were captured by a high‐speed camera. A parametric study was conducted to find the influences of the parameters on cracking behaviors, including initial and peak fracture toughness, crack speed, and crack patterns. Finally, selection of parameters for the damage‐plasticity model was determined through the comparison of numerical predictions and the experimentally observed cracking features.     

关于高速滑坡的几个问题

高速滑坡问题是当前工程地质和环境地质学界极为关注的问题。本文对诸如滑体高速滑动所对应的时空界限、滑体滑动过程所产生的热效应以及空气浮托力等高速滑坡产生机制问题进行了初步探讨。     

流星暴的航天定义

定义ZHR^*以每小时穿过1000平方公里天顶截面的，能在铝质表面打出直径不小于1厘米的弹坑的流星体数，作为流星群对航天安全威胁强度的定量标志，给出了从ZHR到ZHR^*的换算公式．用ZHR^*取代ZHR来评价20世纪90年代以来的一些强流星雨，发现1998年的贾可比尼(天龙座)流星雨对航天安全来说，是比公认的1999、2001、2002年3次狮子座流星暴强数倍的更强流星暴．     

Prediction Test for the Two Extremely Strong Solar Storms in October 2003

In late October and early November 2003, a series of space weather hazard events erupted in solar-terrestrial space. Aiming at two intense storm (shock) events on 28 and 29 October, this paper presents a Two-Step method, which combines synoptic analysis of space weather–`observing’ and quantitative prediction – ‘palpating’, and uses it to test predictions. In the first step, ‘observing’, on the basis of observations of the source surface magnetic field, interplanetary scintillation (IPS) and ACE spacecraft, we find that the propagation of the shock waves is asymmetric and northward relative to the normal direction of their solar sources due to the large-scale configuration of the coronal magnetic fields, and the Earth is located near the direction of the fastest speed and greatest energy of the shocks. Being two fast ejection shock events, the fast explosion of extremely high temperature and strong magnetic field, and background solar wind velocity as high as 600 and 1000 km s⁻¹, are also helpful to their rapid propagation. According to the synoptic analysis, the shock travel times can be estimated as 21 and 20 h, which are close to the observational results of 19.97 and 19.63 h, respectively. In the second step, ‘palpating’, we adopt a new membership function of the fast shock events for the ISF method. The predicted results here show that for the onset time of the geomagnetic disturbance, the relative errors between the observational and the predicted results are 1.8 and 6.7%, which are consistent with the estimated results of the first step; and for the magnetic disturbance magnitude, the relative errors between the observational and the predicted results are 4.1 and 3.1%, respectively. Furthermore, the comparison among the predicted results of our Two-Step method with those of five other prevailing methods shows that the Two-Step method is advantageous in predicting such strong shock event. It can predict not only shock arrival time, but also the magnitude of magnetic disturbance. The results of the present paper tell us that understanding the physical features of shock propagation thoroughly is of great importance in improving the prediction efficiency.     

Application of Grain Size Analysis to Study Sedimentary Environment of Sand Dune in the Vicinity of Tumen River

The dunes in estuary of Tumen River in China lie to the area between the Jiushaping and Fangchuan in the left bank of Tumen River (Fig.1). The dis-tance is about 15～20 km between the dunes and the coast. It ranges from China to D. P. R. Korea and Russia. The range of the height of dunes is about 15～20 m and the width is 100～200 m. By the re-connaissance, we protracted 9 section planes of the dunes and collected 40 sand samples of the dunes, and identified the sedimentary environment …     

分组密码的安全性与强化设计

分组密码是数据通讯中最常用的数据加密方式，以DES为例分析现有分组加密算法的安全隐患，并提出了可变密钥加密和变长密文输出两个新思路，可应用于所有现有分组加密算法以提高安全性，并就该方法的安全性、效率、具体应用做出了分析。     

Paleoproterozoic Extensional Structure and Its Controlling on Mineralization in the East of Liaoning Province

IntroductionThe area of eastern Liaoning is an importantmetal and nonmetal metallogenetic district in China,and the Liaohe group is one of the most importantstrata that hosts Pb, Zn, Au, B and Mg etcstratabound deposits. Up to now many geo1ogistssuch as Z…     

第一代恒星的观测和研究进展

第一代恒星（星族Ⅲ恒星）标志着宇宙从暗物质时代到现在已知的宇宙的转折点。目前对第一代恒星（星族Ⅲ恒星）的观测结果表明，在银河系中还没有发现零金属丰度的恒星，金属丰度[Fe/H]≤-2.5的恒星极少。由于近几年的BPS巡天，银河系中已知的极端贫金属丰度的恒星数目大大增多。目前，可探测到的极端贫金属星的金属丰度[Fe/H]最低约为－4．1。金属丰度在－4到－3之间的恒星大约有100多颗，这些恒星的运动学特性非常类似于其它晕星。然而还没有发现第一代恒星，或金属丰度[Fe/H]≤-5的恒星。关于第一代恒星的形成过程、初始质量函数以及存在于银河系的什么地方，都还没有任何直接的证据。但第一代恒星确实存在。第一代恒星这个谜一般的实体，向观测和理论天文学家提出了巨大挑战。为探测和预言银河系中的第一代恒星，天文学家提出了许多观测方案和理论模型。对有关第一代恒星在观测和理论研究上的进展进行了综述。     

黄土斜坡稳定性的模糊信息分析法

本文基于黄土斜坡稳定性的实际资料,利用信息分配、模糊一二级近似推论及信息集中等原因建立了一套黄土斜坡稳定性的评价方法。用这套方法对一些黄土斜坡(非母体)稳定性进行了验证,其结果与实际情况一致。本方法已应用于兰州市滑坡防灾规划和皋兰山三台阁北侧几个滑坡及斜坡稳定性的研究中,效果良好。