We use high resolution Monte Carlo simulations to study the dispersive mixing in two-phase, immiscible, porous media flow that results from the interaction of the nonlinearities in the flow equations with geologic heterogeneity. Our numerical experiments show that distinct dispersive regimes occur depending on the relative strength of nonlinearity and heterogeneity. In particular, for a given degree of multiscale heterogeneity, controlled by the Hurst exponent which characterizes the underlying stochastic model for the heterogeneity, linear and nonlinear flows are essentially identical in their degree of dispersion, if the heterogeneity is strong enough. As the heterogeneity weakens, the dispersion rates cross over from those of linear heterogeneous flows to those typical of nonlinear homogeneous flows. 相似文献
The interpretation of fluvial styles from the rock record is based for a significant part on the identification of different types of fluvial bars, characterized by the geometric relationship between structures indicative of palaeocurrent and surfaces interpreted as indicative of bar form and bar accretion direction. These surfaces of bar accretion are the boundaries of flood‐related bar increment elements, which are typically less abundant in outcrops than what would be desirable, particularly in large river deposits in which each flood mobilizes large volumes of sediment, causing flood‐increment boundary surfaces to be widely spaced. Cross‐strata set boundaries, on the other hand, are abundant and indirectly reflect the process of unit bar accretion, inclined due to the combined effect of the unit bar surface inclination and the individual bedform climbing angle, in turn controlled by changes in flow structure caused by local bar‐scale morphology. This work presents a new method to deduce the geometry of unit bar surfaces from measured pairs of cross‐strata and cross‐strata set boundaries. The method can be used in the absence of abundant flood‐increment bounding surfaces; the study of real cases shows that, for both downstream and laterally accreting bars, the reconstructed planes are very similar to measured bar increment surfaces. 相似文献
The Holocene fire regime is thought to have had a key role in deforestation and shrubland expansion in Galicia (NW Spain) but the contribution of past societies to vegetation burning remains poorly understood. This may be, in part, due to the fact that detailed fire records from areas in close proximity to archaeological sites are scarce. To fill this gap, we performed charcoal analysis in five colluvial soils from an archaeological area (Campo Lameiro) and compared the results to earlier studies from this area and palaeo-ecological literature from NW Spain. This analysis allowed for the reconstruction of the vegetation and fire dynamics in the area during the last ca 11 000 yrs. In the Early Holocene, Fabaceae and Betula sp. were dominant in the charcoal record. Quercus sp. started to replace these species around 10 000 cal BP, forming a deciduous forest that prevailed during the Holocene Thermal Maximum until ~5500 cal BP. Following that, several cycles of potentially fire-induced forest regression with subsequent incomplete recovery eventually led to the formation of an open landscape dominated by shrubs (Erica sp. and Fabaceae). Major episodes of forest regression were (1) ~5500–5000 cal BP, which marks the mid-Holocene cooling after the Holocene Thermal Maximum, but also the period during which agropastoral activities in NW Spain became widespread, and (2) ~2000–1500 cal BP, which corresponds roughly to the end of the Roman Warm Period and the transition from the Roman to the Germanic period. The low degree of chronological precision, which is inherent in fire history reconstructions from colluvial soils, made it impossible to distinguish climatic from human-induced fires. Nonetheless, the abundance of synanthropic pollen indicators (e.g. Plantago lanceolata and Urtica dioica) since at least ~6000 cal BP strongly suggests that humans used fire to generate and maintain pasture. 相似文献
The town of Santa Teresa (Cusco Region, Peru) has been affected by several large debris-flow events in the recent past, which destroyed parts of the town and resulted in a resettlement of the municipality. Here, we present a risk analysis and a risk management strategy for debris-flows and glacier lake outbursts in the Sacsara catchment. Data scarcity and limited understanding of both physical and social processes impede a full quantitative risk assessment. Therefore, a bottom-up approach is chosen in order to establish an integrated risk management strategy that is robust against uncertainties in the risk analysis. With the Rapid Mass Movement Simulation (RAMMS) model, a reconstruction of a major event from 1998 in the Sacsara catchment is calculated, including a sensitivity analysis for various model parameters. Based on the simulation results, potential future debris-flows scenarios of different magnitudes, including outbursts of two glacier lakes, are modeled for assessing the hazard. For the local communities in the catchment, the hazard assessment is complemented by the analysis of high-resolution satellite imagery and fieldwork. Physical, social, economic, and institutional vulnerability are considered for the vulnerability assessment, and risk is eventually evaluated by crossing the local hazard maps with the vulnerability. Based on this risk analysis, a risk management strategy is developed, consisting of three complementing elements: (i) standardized risk sheets for the communities; (ii) activities with the local population and authorities to increase social and institutional preparedness; and (iii) a simple Early Warning System. By combining scientific, technical, and social aspects, this work is an example of a framework for an integrated risk management strategy in a data scarce, remote mountain catchment in a developing country. 相似文献
Bogotá is located in the central Andean region of Colombia, which is frequently affected by landslide processes. These processes are mostly triggered during the rainy season in the city. This fact remarks the importance of determining what rain-derived parameters (e.g. intensity, antecedent rain, daily rain) are better related with the occurrence of landslides. For this purpose, the linear discriminant analysis (LDA), a technique derived from multivariate statistics, was used. The application of this type of analysis led to obtain simple mathematical functions that represent the probability of occurrence of landslides in Bogotá. The functions also allow to identify the most relevant variables derived from records of rainfall linked to the generation of landslides. A proof of concept using the proposed methodology was done using historic rainfall data from a 9-km2 area of homogenous climatology and geomorphology in the south part of Bogotá. Landslides needed to be grouped for the LDA. Each one of these grouping categories represents landslides that occurred in similar geomorphologic conditions. Another set of events with no landslides was generated synthetically. Results of the proof of concept show that rainfall parameters such as normalized rainfall intensity IMAP, normalized daily rainfall RMAP and rainy-days normal RDN have the best statistical correlation with the landslides observed in the zone of analysis. 相似文献
Natural Hazards - Chilean geography exposes the country to high-level risks such as earthquakes and tsunamis. The disasters of 1930, 1960, 2010, and 2014 testify to the continuous link between... 相似文献
The volcanic rocks of the Colíder and Roosevelt formations are extensively exposed in the south-central portion of the Amazonian Craton where effusive and pyroclastic rocks have been mapped. Both units, topped by chemical sediments and oceanic facies as rhyolite and andesite lavas, rhyodacite, and porphyritic dacite, with frequent intercalations of pyroclastic and epiclastic deposits. Whole-rock geochemistry for 55 samples of rhyolitic to andesitic composition suggests the involvement of fertile mantle-derived components with E-MORB to OIB compositions. The analyzed rocks display calc-alkaline to shoshonitic affinity consistent with generation related to an active continental margin. The whole-rock Sm-Nd isotope data from selected felsic volcanic rocks of the Colíder and Roosevelt formations yield negative initial εNd values between –3 and –9, indicating the predominantly crustal nature of the parental magmas with early Archean to late Paleoproterozoic (ca. 2.5–2.0 Ga) depleted mantle model ages.
The irregular satellites of Jupiter are believed to be captured asteroids or planetesimals. In the present work is studied
the direction of capture of these objects as a function of their orbital inclination. We performed numerical simulations of
the restricted three-body problem, Sun-Jupiter-particle, taking into account the growth of Jupiter. The integration was made
backward in time. Initially, the particles have orbits as satellites of Jupiter, which has its present mass. Then, the system
evolved with Jupiter losing mass and the satellites escaping from the planet. The reverse of the escape direction corresponds
to the capture direction. The results show that the Lagrangian points L1 and L2 mainly guide the direction of capture. Prograde
satellites are captured through these two gates with very narrow amplitude angles. In the case of retrograde satellites, these
two gates are wider. The capture region increases as the orbital inclination increases. In the case of planar retrograde satellites
the directions of capture cover the whole 360° around Jupiter. We also verified that prograde satellites are captured earlier
in actual time than retrograde ones.
This paper was presented at the Asteriods, Comets and Meteors meeting held at Búzios, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil in August 2005
and could not be included in the special issue related to that conference. 相似文献
Recent field work and review of radiometric data obtained from Neogene lavas and plutonic rocks exposed in the Eastern Central Patagonian Cordillera (46–48ºS), which overlie subducted segments of the South Chile Ridge, suggest important Late Miocene to Pleistocene morphological changes in relation to base level variations and/or tectonic events. We present new field observations from a region south of Lago General Carrera‐Buenos Aires, between the main Cordillera and the Meseta del Lago Buenos Aires, demonstrating that normal faulting controlled valley incisions and occurred during lava emplacement at 5–4 Ma and after 3 Ma. We also show that the 12 Ma basaltic flows of the Meseta del Lago Buenos Aires (∼2000 m a.s.l.) have been subjected to deep incision, with younger lavas dated at 1.2 Ma partially filling the valleys. These incisions are thought to reflect progressive eastward tilting of the entire meseta. Our new observations, together with additional features from Central Patagonia, strongly suggest that tectonic events led to a regional widespread morphological change after 5 Ma. The coincidence in time and space between the subduction of segments of the South Chile Ridge at 6 and 3 Ma causing opening of a slab window, and strong base level variations in the studied area, suggests a cause‐and‐effect relationship. In Central Patagonia, compressional tectonics ended well before extensional events reported here. Causes of uplift and further extension are probably completely disconnected. The uplift is purely tectonic in origin and occurred prior to the subduction of the South Chile Ridge. Extension should be a consequence of this subduction. 相似文献
The troposphere delay is an important source of error for precise GNSS positioning due to its high correlation with the station height parameter. It has been demonstrated that errors in mapping functions can cause sub-annual biases as well as affect the repeatability of GNSS solutions, which is a particular concern for geophysical studies. Three-dimensional ray-tracing through numerical weather models (NWM) is an excellent approach for capturing the directional and daily variation of the tropospheric delay. Due to computational complexity, its use for positioning purposes is limited, but it is an excellent tool for evaluating current state-of-the-art mapping functions used for geodetic positioning. Many mapping functions have been recommended in the past such as the Niell Mapping Function (NMF), Vienna Mapping Function 1 (VMF1), and the Global Mapping Function (GMF), which have been adopted by most IGS analysis centers. A new Global Pressure Temperature model (GPT2) has also been developed, which has been shown to improve upon the original atmospheric model used for the GMF. Although the mapping functions mentioned above use the same functional formulation, they vary in terms of their atmospheric source and calibration approach. A homogeneous data set of three-dimensional ray-traced delays is used to evaluate all components of the mapping functions, including their underlying functional formulation, calibration, and compression method. Additionally, an alternative representation of the VMF1 is generated using the same atmospheric source as the truth data set to evaluate the differences in ray-tracing methods and their effect on the end mapping function. The results of this investigation continue to support the use of the VMF1 as the mapping function of choice when geodetic parameters are of interest. Further support for the GPT2 and GMF as reliable back-ups when the VMF1 is not available was found due to their high consistency with the NWM-derived mapping function. Additionally, a small latitude-dependent bias in station height was found in the current mapping functions. This bias was identified to be due to the assumption of a constant radius of the earth and was largest at the poles and at the equator. Finally, an alternative version of the VMF1 is introduced, namely the UNB-VMF1 which provides users with an independent NWM-derived mapping function to support geodetic positioning. 相似文献