Comparison of results from several AOGCMs for global and regional sea-level change 1900–2100

 Sea-level rise is an important aspect of climate change because of its impact on society and ecosystems. Here we present an intercomparison of results from ten coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) for sea-level changes simulated for the twentieth century and projected to occur during the twenty first century in experiments following scenario IS92a for greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. The model results suggest that the rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion of sea water has increased during the twentieth century, but the small set of tide gauges with long records might not be adequate to detect this acceleration. The rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion continues to increase throughout the twenty first century, and the projected total is consequently larger than in the twentieth century; for 1990–2090 it amounts to 0.20–0.37 m. This wide range results from systematic uncertainty in modelling of climate change and of heat uptake by the ocean. The AOGCMs agree that sea-level rise is expected to be geographically non-uniform, with some regions experiencing as much as twice the global average, and others practically zero, but they do not agree about the geographical pattern. The lack of agreement indicates that we cannot currently have confidence in projections of local sea-level changes, and reveals a need for detailed analysis and intercomparison in order to understand and reduce the disagreements. Received: 1 September 2000 / Accepted: 20 April 2001     

Stratigraphic signatures of translation of thrust-sheet top basins over low-angle detachment faults

Abstract Low‐angle detachment faults and thrust‐sheet top basins are common features in foreland basins. However, in stratigraphic analysis their influence on sequence architecture is commonly neglected. Usually, only eustatic sea level and changing flexural subsidence are accounted for, and when deformation is considered, the emphasis is on the generation of local thrust‐flank unconformities. This study analyses the effects of detachment angle and repetitive detachment activation on stratigraphic stacking patterns in a large thrust‐sheet top basin by applying a three‐dimensional numerical model. Model experiments show that displacement over low‐angle faults (2–6°) at moderate rates (～5.0 m kyr^?1) results in a vertical uplift component sufficient to counteract the background flexural subsidence rate. Consequently, the basin‐wide accommodation space is reduced, fluvio‐deltaic systems carried by the thrust‐sheet prograde and part of the sediment supply is spilled over towards adjacent basins. The intensity of the forced regression and the interconnectedness of fluvial sheet sandstones increases with the dip angle of the detachment fault or rate of displacement. In addition, the delta plain is susceptible to the formation of incised valleys during eustatic falls because these events are less compensated by regional flexural subsidence, than they would be in the absence of fault displacement.     

Effects of spatially structured vegetation patterns on hillslope erosion in a semiarid Mediterranean environment: a simulation study

A general trend of decreasing soil loss rates with increasing vegetation cover fraction is widely accepted. Field observations and experimental work, however, show that the form of the cover‐erosion function can vary considerably, in particular for low cover conditions that prevail on arid and semiarid hillslopes. In this paper the structured spatial distribution of the vegetation cover and associated soil attributes is proposed as one of the possible causes of variation in cover–erosion relationships, in particular in dryland environments where patchy vegetation covers are common. A simulation approach was used to test the hypothesis that hillslope discharge and soil loss could be affected by variation in the spatial correlation structure of coupled vegetation cover and soil patterns alone. The Limburg Soil Erosion Model (LISEM) was parameterized and verified for a small catchment with discontinuous vegetation cover at Rambla Honda, SE Spain. Using the same parameter sets LISEM was subsequently used to simulate water and sediment fluxes on 1 ha hypothetical hillslopes with simulated spatial distributions of vegetation and soil parameters. Storms of constant rainfall intensity in the range of 30–70 mm h^?1 and 10–30 min duration were applied. To quantify the effect of the spatial correlation structure of the vegetation and soil patterns, predicted discharge and soil loss rates from hillslopes with spatially structured distributions of vegetation and soil parameters were compared with those from hillslopes with spatially uniform distributions. The results showed that the spatial organization of bare and vegetated surfaces alone can have a substantial impact on predicted storm discharge and erosion. In general, water and sediment yields from hillslopes with spatially structured distributions of vegetation and soil parameters were greater than from identical hillslopes with spatially uniform distributions. Within a storm the effect of spatially structured vegetation and soil patterns was observed to be highly dynamic, and to depend on rainfall intensity and slope gradient. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Andesite and dacite genesis via contrasting processes: the geology and geochemistry of El Valle Volcano,Panama

The easternmost stratovolcano along the Central American arc is El Valle volcano, Panama. Several andesitic and dacitic lava flows, which range in age 5–10 Ma, are termed the old group. After a long period of quiescence (approximately 3.4 Ma), volcanic activity resumed approximately 1.55 Ma with the emplacement of dacitic domes and the deposition of dacitic pyroclastic flows 0.9–0.2 Ma. These are referred to as the young group. All of the samples analyzed are calc-alkaline andesites and dacites. The mineralogy of the two groups is distinct; two pyroxenes occur in the old-group rocks but are commonly absent in the young group. In contrast, amphibole has been found only in the young-group samples. Several disequilibrium features have been observed in the minerals (e.g., oscillatory zoning within clinopyroxenes). These disequilibrium textures appear to be more prevalent among the old- as compared with the young-group samples and are most likely the result of magma-mixing, assimilation, and/or polybaric crystallization. Mass-balance fractionation models for major and trace elements were successful in relating samples from the old group but failed to show a relationship among the young-group rocks or between the old- and young-group volcanics. We believe that the old-group volcanics were derived through differentiation processes from basaltic magmas generated within the mantlewedge. The young group, however, does not appear to be related to more primitive magmas by differentiation. The young-group samples cannot be related by fractionation including realistic amounts of amphibole. Distinctive geochemical features of the young group, including La/Yb ratios〉15, Yb〈1, Sr/Y〉150, and Y〈6, suggest that these rocks were derived from the partial melting of the subducted lithosphere. These characteristics can be explained by the partial melting of a source with residual garnet and amphibole. Dacitic material with the geochemical characteristics of subducted-lithosphere melting is generated apparently only where relatively hot crust is subducted, based on recent work. The young dacite-genesis at El Valle volcano is related to the subduction of relatively hot lithosphere.     

A study of objective methods for water mass analysis,applied to the Iceland Basin

Ocean Dynamics - Cluster analysis and principal component analysis have been applied to multi-parameter hydrographic data from the Iceland Basin. The results indicate that both objective methods...     

On the cumulative frequency distributions ofk-day period amounts of precipitation for any station in The Netherlands,while k≧30

Summary A simple method of representing cumulative frequency distributions ofk-day period amounts of precipitation (30k1800), deduced from observations at Hoofddorp during 87 years and from observations at Winterswijk during 73 years, by means of cumulative Poisson distributions, had been developed. Poisson's constant appeared to depend linearly onk only, while the Poisson unitq appeared to be only proportional to the annual variation.In this paper it is shown that the representation of observed cumulative frequency distributions with the aid of Poisson distributions is true for any station in The Netherlands in the interval 30k1800. A map with isopleths of -values fork=360 presents a simple picture, so that for any station an -value fork=360 can be estimated. For the process of representation the meank-day period amount of precipitation is also necessary. This value may be obtained from a map for each of the 12 months, each map covered with isohyetal lines, which give a distribution of the monthly precipitation.

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Zusammenfassung Es wurde eine Methode entwickelt, um in einfacher Weise Summenfunktionen vonk-tägigen Niederschlagsmengen (30k1800), welche aus Beobachtungen in Hoofddorp während 87 Jahren und in Winterswijk während 73 Jahren angestellt worden sind, durch kumulative Poissonsche Häufigkeitsverteilungen darzustellen. Dabei ergab sich, daß die Poissonsche Konstante nur linear vonk abhängig ist, während die Poissonsche Einheitq sich als proportional zum Jahresgang erwies.In der vorliegenden Untersuchung wird nun gezeigt, daß die Darstellung der beobachteten kumulativen Häufigkeitsverteilungen mit Hilfe von Poisson-Verteilungen für irgendeine Station in den Niederlanden im Bereich von 30k1800 gültig ist. Eine Karte mit Isoplethen der -Werte fürk=360 ergibt ein einfaches Bild, aus dem für jede beliebige Station ein -Wert fürk=360 abgelesen werden kann. Für eine solche Darstellung muß auch die Niederschlagsmenge derk-tägigen Perioden bekannt sein; diese Werte erhält man aus monatlichen Isohyeten-Karten, die die monatliche Niederschlagsverteilung wiedergeben.

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Résumé On avait développé une méthode pour représenter d'une façon simple les distributions des sommes cumulées dek jours (30k1800) des quantités de précipitations déduites des observations faites à Hoofddorp pendant 87 ans et à Winterswijk pendant 73 ans. On avait démontré que la constante de Poisson ne dépend dek que linéairement et que l'unité de Poissonq est proportionnelle à la variation annuelle.De la présente étude ressort que, dans l'intervalle de 30k1800, la représentation des distributions des fréquences cumulées observées au moyen des formules de Poisson est valable pour une station quelconque aux Pays-Bas. Une carte d'isoplèthes de la valeur pourk=360 donne une image suffisamment simple pour que la valeur d'une station quelconque aux Pays-Bas puisse être déterminée sans difficulté. Pour une telle représentation il faut connaître également les moyennes des quantités des périodes dek jours de la précipitation. Ces valeurs peuvent se déduire de cartes mensuelles des isohyètes moyennes.

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Dedicated to Dr.Anders K. Ångström on the occasion of his 70th birthday.     

Influence of the vertical motion field on ozone concentration in the stratosphere

Computations of the mean meridional motion field in the stratosphere are applied to ozone distributions to evaluate the associated ozone concentration changes. These changes are compared with those produced by photochemical and quasi-horizontal eddy processes. For the period January–April 1964 there is a cooperative action between the mean and eddy motions with mean subsidence in middle latitudes supplying ozone to be carried polawards and equatorwards by quasi-horizontal eddy processes. At low latitudes mean horizontal motions offset the eddy transport while at high latitudes mean rising motion is the offsetting term. The mean ozone flux through 50 mb, 3.5×10²⁹ molecules sec^–1, is comparable with the fluxes evaluated by other techniques.The spring maximum is thought to be due to a modulation of the energy supply to the stratospheric eddies which, in turn, force the mean motions. Longer-term changes are to be expected; for example during Ice Ages when increased tropospheric eddy activity is anticipated there should be higher total ozone.     

Quantifying anthropogenic influence on recent near-surface temperature change

We assess the extent to which observed large-scale changes in near-surface temperatures over the latter half of the twentieth century can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change as simulated by a range of climate models. The hypothesis that observed changes are entirely due to internal climate variability is rejected at a high confidence level independent of the climate model used to simulate either the anthropogenic signal or the internal variability. Where the relevant simulations are available, we also consider the alternative hypothesis that observed changes are due entirely to natural external influences, including solar variability and explosive volcanic activity. We allow for the possibility that feedback processes, other than those simulated by the models considered, may be amplifying the observed response to these natural influences by an unknown amount. Even allowing for this possibility, the hypothesis of no anthropogenic influence can be rejected at the 5% level in almost all cases. The influence of anthropogenic greenhouse gases emerges as a substantial contributor to recent observed climate change, with the estimated trend attributable to greenhouse forcing similar in magnitude to the total observed warming over the 20th century. Much greater uncertainty remains in the response to other external influences on climate, particularly the response to anthropogenic sulphate aerosols and to solar and volcanic forcing. Our results remain dependent on model-simulated signal patterns and internal variability, and would benefit considerably from a wider range of simulations, particularly of the responses to natural external forcing.     

The Bataan orogene: Eastward subduction, tectonic rotations, and volcanism in the western Pacific (Philippines)

The Philippine mobile belt represents a crustal fragment, wedged between two subduction systems exhibiting opposite polarity. The eastern (Philippine—Quezon) system probably originated in the Eocene during northwest—southeast spreading of the west Philippine basin. Westward subduction is continued, probably as a result of northward motion of the Philippine basin crust. The western (Manila—Bataan) system originated in the Oligocene by spreading and formation of the South China Sea basin. Eastward subduction dominates the tectonics in the northern part of the archipelago and resulted in the formation of the Bataan orogene, a sequence of three parallel volcanic arcs emplaced in obducted oceanic crust. Geochemical and radiometric data indicate that the arcs migrated eastward with time (Miocene to Present) while changing composition from tholeiitic via calc-alkaline to shoshonitic. Centers of the latter two types are presently active. Depocenters behind the arcs also migrated eastward with time, suggesting correction of the isostatic disequilibrium caused by geanticlinal uplift of the orogene. Paleomagnetic evidence suggests that central Luzon is rotating counterclockwise probably due to differential spreading in the South China Sea basin. The west Philippine basin rotates clockwise. This results in significant “Einengung” in the southern part of the archipelago.