Model of Formation and Development of Spring Thermal Bar

A mathematical model simulating the thermo- and hydrodynamic processes near the thermal bar in the period of lake warming in spring is considered. A closed system of Reynolds type equations is constructed based on the Navier–Stokes nonlinear system of equations using the Boussinesq approximation and a special technique for isolating large-scale structures in turbulent medium. The turbulent viscosity coefficient is evaluated in the course of problem solution. The results of calculations are shown to agree well with field observation data.     

Low-latitude variations in the geomagnetic field caused by solar wind disturbances

In view of the actual question regarding the effect of a solar-wind pressure jump on disturbances in the Earth’s magnetosphere, events with high velocity and density gradients are of special interest. In this work, we consider the response of the current at the dayside magnetopause to these events and the corresponding strengthening of the geomagnetic field in the low-latitude magnetosphere. A transient process is studied that accompanies reconfiguration of the magnetosphere under the effect of disturbances of solar wind parameters. An analytical equation is received for estimation of an increase in the northern component of low-latitude magnetic field of the magnetosphere in a transient current system (transient ring current) versus initial values of the solar-wind velocity and density and their disturbances.     

A numerical model of spring thermal bar development and energy exchange between a water body and the atmosphere at night

A mathematical model is used to assess the effect of temperature and relative air humidity on variations of long-wave radiation flux and the fluxes of sensible and latent heat at the water body-atmosphere interface at night in the period of spring thermal bar development. The effect of those fluxes on variations of the heat storage of the water body, the position of the thermal bar, and the velocity of its motion at night is evaluated.     

Projected Changes in Surface Air Temperature and Surface Wind in the Gulf of St. Lawrence

Abstract

The impacts of climate change on surface air temperature (SAT) and winds in the Gulf of St. Lawrence (GSL) are investigated by performing simulations from 1970 to 2099 with the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM), driven by a five-member ensemble. Three members are from Canadian Global Climate Model (CGCM3) simulations following scenario A1B from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC); one member is from the Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3) simulation, also following the A1B scenario; and one member is from the CCSM4 (version 4) simulation following the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5) scenario. Compared with North America Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data, it is shown that CRCM can reproduce the observed SAT spatial patterns; for example, both CRCM simulations and NARR data show a warm SAT tongue along the eastern Gulf; CRCM simulations also capture the dominant northwesterly winds in January and the southwesterly winds in July. In terms of future climate scenarios, the spatial patterns of SAT show plausible seasonal variations. In January, the warming is 3°–3.5°C in the northern Gulf and 2.5°–3°C near Cabot Strait during 2040–2069, whereas the warming is more uniform during 2070–2099, with SAT increases of 4°–5°C. In summer, the warming gradually decreases from the western side of the GSL to the eastern side because of the different heat capacities between land and water. Moreover, the January winds increase by 0.2–0.4?m?s^?1 during 2040–2069, related to weakening stability in the atmospheric planetary boundary layer. However, during 2070–2099, the winds decrease by 0.2–0.4?m?s^?1 over the western Gulf, reflecting the northeastward shift in northwest Atlantic storm tracks. In July, enhanced baroclinicity along the east coast of North America dominates the wind changes, with increases of 0.2–0.4?m?s^?1. On average, the variance for the SAT changes is about 10% of the SAT increase, and the variance for projected wind changes is the same magnitude as the projected changes, suggesting uncertainty in the latter.     

Laboratory investigation of the influence of wind forcing on the thermal bar’s evolution

The experiments carried out in laboratory conditions allowed us for the first time to investigate the dynamics of the thermal’s bar development taking into account the wind forcing at the water’s surface in a laboratory tank. The influence of winds of different strengths and directions on the lifetime and motion of the thermal bar has been evaluated. The results were compared with numerical modeling.     

Polar cap response to the solar wind density jump under constant southward IMF

Sharp changes of the solar wind parameters determining the dynamic pressure jump lead to strong magnetosphere-ionosphere disturbances. Here the effect on the Earth’s ionospheric high latitudes of the solar wind dynamic pressure pulse caused only by the increase of the interplanetary plasma density under southward constant IMF is considered. We investigate reaction of the cross-polar cap potential on the increase of AL index and/or jump of the solar wind density. It is found that for the case of 10 January 1997 the main contribution to the polar cap potential drop increase gave the growth of AL index relative to the input of the solar wind density jump. We also study the influence of the solar wind density increase on the crosspolar cap potential for the quiet magnetospheric conditions. It occurred that the polar cap potential difference decreases with the great increase of the interplanetary plasma density. For the disturbed magnetosphere the main role in the polar cap potential drop increase plays increase of AL. Thus, we found the change of the cross-polar cap potential due to the AL index variations and/or the solar wind density drop even in a case when the interplanetary electric field is constant.