A cellular model of Holocene upland river basin and alluvial fan evolution

The CAESAR (Cellular Automaton Evolutionary Slope And River) model is used to simulate the Holocene development of a small upland catchment (4·2 km²) and the alluvial fan at its base. The model operates at a 3 m grid scale and simulates every flood over the last 9200 years, using a rainfall record reconstructed from peat bog wetness indices and land cover history derived from palynological sources. Model results show that the simulated catchment sediment discharge above the alluvial fan closely follows the climate signal, but with an increase in the amplitude of response after deforestation. The important effects of sediment storage and remobilization are shown, and findings suggest that soil creep rates may be an important control on long term (>1000 years) temperate catchment sediment yield. The simulated alluvial fan shows a complex and episodic behaviour, with frequent avulsions across the fan surface. However, there appears to be no clear link between fan response and climate or land use changes suggesting that Holocene alluvial fan dynamics may be the result of phases of sediment storage and remobilization, or instabilities and thresholds within the fan itself. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Deducing the spatial variability of exchange within a longitudinal channel water balance

Developing an appropriate data collection scheme to infer stream–subsurface interactions is not trivial due to the spatial and temporal variability of exchange flowpaths. Within the context of a case study, this paper presents the results from a number of common data collection techniques ranging from point to reach scales used in combination to better understand the spatial complexity of subsurface exchanges, infer the hydrologic conditions where individual influences of hyporheic and groundwater exchange components on stream water can be characterized, and determine where gaps in information arise. We start with a tracer‐based, longitudinal channel water balance to quantify hydrologic gains and losses at a sub‐reach scale nested within two consecutive reaches. Next, we look at groundwater and stream water surface levels, shallow streambed vertical head gradients, streambed and aquifer hydraulic conductivities, water chemistry, and vertical flux rates estimated from streambed temperatures to provide more spatially explicit information. As a result, a clearer spatial understanding of gains and losses was provided, but some limitations in interpreting results were identified even when combining information collected over various scales. Due to spatial variability of exchanges and areas of mixing, each technique frequently captured a combination of groundwater and hyporheic exchange components. Ultimately, this study provides information regarding technique selection, emphasizes that care must be taken when interpreting results, and identifies the need to apply or develop more advanced methods for understanding subsurface exchanges. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A framework for testing dynamic classification of vulnerable scenarios in ensemble water supply projections

Climatic Change - Recent water resources planning studies have proposed climate adaptation strategies in which infrastructure and policy actions are triggered by observed thresholds or...     

Embedding reach-scale fluvial dynamics within the CAESAR cellular automaton landscape evolution model

We introduce a new computational model designed to simulate and investigate reach-scale alluvial dynamics within a landscape evolution model. The model is based on the cellular automaton concept, whereby the continued iteration of a series of local process ‘rules’ governs the behaviour of the entire system. The model is a modified version of the CAESAR landscape evolution model, which applies a suite of physically based rules to simulate the entrainment, transport and deposition of sediments. The CAESAR model has been altered to improve the representation of hydraulic and geomorphic processes in an alluvial environment. In-channel and overbank flow, sediment entrainment and deposition, suspended load and bed load transport, lateral erosion and bank failure have all been represented as local cellular automaton rules. Although these rules are relatively simple and straightforward, their combined and repeatedly iterated effect is such that complex, non-linear geomorphological response can be simulated within the model. Examples of such larger-scale, emergent responses include channel incision and aggradation, terrace formation, channel migration and river meandering, formation of meander cutoffs, and transitions between braided and single-thread channel patterns. In the current study, the model is illustrated on a reach of the River Teifi, near Lampeter, Wales, UK.     

Sedimentary pigments as indicators of cyanobacterial dynamics in a hypereutrophic lake

Lac Saint-Augustin is an urban lake located on the outskirts of Quebec City, one of North America’s oldest cities. Anthropogenic inputs from land clearing, agriculture, highway development and urbanization in the surrounding catchment have resulted in strong impacts on the limnology of the lake throughout the past three centuries. In recent years, this lake has experienced severe eutrophication, including persistent cyanobacterial blooms. In winter 2011, a sediment core was extracted from the deepest area of the lake. A detailed paleopigment analysis was used to assess eutrophication processes in the lake and to determine the timing and appearance of cyanobacterial blooms and their subsequent variability. Extracted chlorophyll a, its degradation products and 11 carotenoid pigments were identified and quantified via reverse-phase high performance liquid chromatography to examine relative changes in the phytoplankton. The results revealed large variations in the phytoplankton community structure of Lac Saint-Augustin over the past 356 years. Chlorophyll a concentrations per unit organic matter (OM) increased significantly from the base of the core to present day, rising more than 15-fold from 18.4 µg (g OM)^?1 at the base of the core to 287 µg (g OM)^?1 in the most recent strata. Biostratigraphical analysis revealed three major periods of enrichment, with episodes of cyanobacterial abundance from the 1890s onwards. The greatest changes occurred in the most recent period (from the 1960s to the present) relative to earlier periods, with pigment increases for all phytoplankton groups. The cyanobacterial pigments canthaxanthin, echinenone and zeaxanthin (also a marker for green algae) showed concentrations in the surface sediments that were significantly above values at the bottom of the core, and these differences were large, even giving consideration to the lesser pigment degradation near the surface. Overall, the results indicate that cyanobacterial blooms are not a recent feature of Lac Saint-Augustin but began to occur soon after catchment modification 150 years ago. The pigment records also imply that cyanobacterial and associated algal populations have risen to unprecedented levels over the last few decades of ongoing development of the Lac Saint-Augustin catchment. This study highlights the utility of multiple pigment analysis of lake sediments for identifying the timing and magnitude of anthropogenic impacts.     

Revised marine reservoir offset (ΔR) values for molluscs and marine mammals from Arctic North America

Appropriate marine–terrestrial reservoir offset (ΔR) values are essential for accurate calibration of marine radiocarbon dates. However, ΔR values are only valid for the specific calibration curve that their calculation is based on. Here, we present revised ΔR values for the Marine20 calibration curve from Arctic North America, based on previously published ¹⁴C dates on pre-bomb live-collected marine molluscs (n = 124) and cetaceans (beluga whales; tooth dentine; n = 12), and bowhead whale–driftwood age comparisons from the same glacio-isostatically uplifted shorelines (n = 18). Molluscan-based ΔR are: Chukchi/Beaufort sea coasts, 265±116 ¹⁴C years; NW Canadian Arctic Archipelago, 188±91 ¹⁴C years; NE Baffin Island, 81±18 ¹⁴C years; SE Baffin Island, 14±58 ¹⁴C years; Hudson Strait, −73±64 ¹⁴C years; Ungava Bay, 0±86 ¹⁴C years; Foxe Basin, 175±89 ¹⁴C years; Hudson Bay, −21±72 ¹⁴C years; James Bay, 209±114 ¹⁴C years; West Greenland, −93±111 ¹⁴C years. Species-specific marine mammal ΔR terms are 107±59 ¹⁴C years for beluga and 24±58 ¹⁴C years for bowheads. Our revised ΔR values are applicable for as long as the same broad oceanographic conditions (circulation, ventilation) have persisted, i.e. through the Holocene. While molluscan values are applicable to other marine carbonate (e.g. foraminifera), cetacean ΔR are valid only for the species they were calculated for and should not be applied to other marine mammals. Importantly, the ΔR terms calculated here are only valid for Marine20 and should not be used with earlier or later calibration curves.     

Detecting subtle hydrochemical anomalies with multivariate statistics: an example from ‘homogeneous’ groundwaters in the Great Artesian Basin,Australia

The major ion composition of Great Artesian Basin groundwater in the lower Namoi River valley is relatively homogeneous in chemical composition. Traditional graphical techniques have been combined with multivariate statistical methods to determine whether subtle differences in the chemical composition of these waters can be delineated. Hierarchical cluster analysis and principal components analysis were successful in delineating minor variations within the groundwaters of the study area that were not visually identified in the graphical techniques applied. Hydrochemical interpretation allowed geochemical processes to be identified in each statistically defined water type and illustrated how these groundwaters differ from one another. Three main geochemical processes were identified in the groundwaters: ion exchange, precipitation, and mixing between waters from different sources. Both statistical methods delineated an anomalous sample suspected of being influenced by magmatic CO₂ input. The use of statistical methods to complement traditional graphical techniques for waters appearing homogeneous is emphasized for all investigations of this type. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessing the hydrological and geomorphic behaviour of a landscape evolution model within a limits-of-acceptability uncertainty analysis framework

Landscape evolution models (LEMs) have the capability to characterize key aspects of geomorphological and hydrological processes. However, their usefulness is hindered by model equifinality and paucity of available calibration data. Estimating uncertainty in the parameter space and resultant model predictions is rarely achieved as this is computationally intensive and the uncertainties inherent in the observed data are large. Therefore, a limits-of-acceptability (LoA) uncertainty analysis approach was adopted in this study to assess the value of uncertain hydrological and geomorphic data. These were used to constrain simulations of catchment responses and to explore the parameter uncertainty in model predictions. We applied this approach to the River Derwent and Cocker catchments in the UK using a LEM CAESAR-Lisflood. Results show that the model was generally able to produce behavioural simulations within the uncertainty limits of the streamflow. Reliability metrics ranged from 24.4% to 41.2% and captured the high-magnitude low-frequency sediment events. Since different sets of behavioural simulations were found across different parts of the catchment, evaluating LEM performance, in quantifying and assessing both at-a-point behaviour and spatial catchment response, remains a challenge. Our results show that evaluating LEMs within uncertainty analyses framework while taking into account the varying quality of different observations constrains behavioural simulations and parameter distributions and is a step towards a full-ensemble uncertainty evaluation of such models. We believe that this approach will have benefits for reflecting uncertainties in flooding events where channel morphological changes are occurring and various diverse (and yet often sparse) data have been collected over such events.     

Meltwater discharge during the Holocene from the Wilkes subglacial basin revealed by beryllium isotope analysis of marine sediments

Understanding Antarctic Ice Sheet dynamics related to global climate change is of scientific and societal interest as the future behaviour of the ice sheet under the currently changing climate is unknown. We present beryllium‐10 (¹⁰Be) analysis of a high‐resolution marine sediment core from the Adélie Basin near the eastern Wilkes Land margin, which is susceptible to marine ice sheet instability due to the low‐lying nature and down‐sloping trough of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin. Combined with a newly constructed age model using compound specific radiocarbon dates, the data reveal three events associated with high meteoric ¹⁰Be at ca. ~10 ka, ca. ~6.5 ka and from ca. ~4 ka. We interpret these high meteoric ¹⁰Be events to be derived from the deposition of ¹⁰Be released from the ice sheet during meltwater discharge. In particular, the shift to higher meteoric ¹⁰Be concentration at~4 ka may correspond to changes in climate patterns at this time. Copyright © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.