长江中下游夏季高温灾害机理及预测

利用我国1961-2003年夏季（6—8月）高温资料，建立长江中下游地区主要城市强高温及高温过程较完整的时间序列，探讨了该地区主要城市高温气候特征。分析该地区南京、杭州、南昌等城市夏季高温灾害机理，东亚副热带高压是造成长江中下游地区城市夏季高温的主要影响系统。在此基础上用均生函数-最佳子回归集构造预测模型，预测夏季月高温出现日数，通过42a高温资料预报检验，有较好的预测效果，值得在业务中应用。     

BECAPEX科学试验城市建筑群落边界层大气环境特征及其影响

20 0 1～ 2 0 0 3年在北京实施了大气边界层动力、热力、化学综合观测试验 (BECAPEX ,BeijingCityAtmosphericPollutionObservationFieldExperiment) ,获取了北京城市大气动力和大气化学三维结构图像。综合观测试验分析研究发现 ,城市区域呈非均匀次生尺度热岛分布 ,并伴随着城市次生尺度环流 ,影响了局地空气污染物分布特征。MODIS卫星遥感 地面观测资料经过变分分析 ,可发现北京城市空气污染与周边区域影响源有密切关系 ,并影响城市群落环境气候特征 ,导致该区域日照、雾日、低云量和能见度呈显著年代际变化趋势。     

The Key Supply Source of Long-Distance Moisture Transport for the Extreme Rainfall Event on July 21, 2012 in Beijing

In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and meteorological observation data were used to research the long-distance moisture transport supply source of the extreme rainfall event that occurred on July 21, 2012 in Beijing. Recording a maximum rainfall amount of 460 mm in 24 h, this rainstorm event had two dominant moisture transport channels. In the early stage of the rainstorm, the first channel comprised southwesterly monsoonal moisture from the Bay of Bengal (BOB) that was directly transported to north China along the eastern edge of Tibetan Plateau (TP) by orographic uplift. During the rainstorm, the southwesterly moisture transport was weakened by the transfer of Typhoon Vicente. Moreover, the southeasterly moisture transport between the typhoon and western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) became another dominant moisture transport channel. The moisture in the lower troposphere was mainly associated with the southeasterly moisture transport from the South China Sea and the East China Sea, and the moisture in the middle troposphere was mainly transported from the BOB and Indian Ocean. The control experiment well reproduced the distribution and intensity of rainfall and moisture transport. By comparing the control and three sensitivity experiments, we found that the moisture transported from Typhoon Vicente and a tropical cyclone in the BOB both significantly affected this extreme rainfall event. After Typhoon Vicente was removed in a sensitivity experiment, the maximum 24-h accumulated rainfall in north China was reduced by approximately 50% compared with that of the control experiment, while the rainfall after removing the tropical cyclone was reduced by 30%. When both the typhoon and tropical cyclone were removed, the southwesterly moisture transport was enhanced. Moreover, the sensitivity experiment of removing Typhoon Vicente also weakened the tropical cyclone in the BOB. Thus, the moisture pump driven by Typhoon Vicente played an important role in maintaining and strengthening the tropical cyclone in the BOB through its westerly airflow. Typhoon Vicente was not only the moisture transfer source for the southwesterly monsoonal moisture but also affected the tropical cyclone in the BOB, which was a key supply source of long-distance moisture transport for the extreme rainfall event on July 21, 2012 in Beijing.     

近40年中国区域的气候型变化与北半球大气环流特征10年际时空变化的关系

根据１８００－１９８９年（１１０年）的资料，分析研究了新加坡地区月平均和年平均降雨量的一些特征。主要结论是：新加坡年平均降雨量存在准２－６年和１８年的周期振荡；亚洲季风以及ＥＮＳＯ对新加坡降雨量有明显的影响。新加坡年雨量的谷值出现在西南季风期而峰值在东北季风期。在Ｅｌ Ｎｉｎｏ年，新加坡降雨量多为负距平；而在反Ｅｌ Ｎｉｎｏ年，新加坡降雨量多为正距平。     

强迫二维Rossby波传播特征的数值试验

Bjerknes提出了大气对外界强迫响应的概念。大量研究已证明这一遥响应机制的存在,且大气对强迫源的遥响应及其低频活动的共同特征都表现为类似大圆路径的波列,Hoskins的理论研究揭示了这现象的实质,他把叶笃正所提出的Rossby波的频散理论推广到球面上。黄荣辉曾利用波折射指数平方与EP通量系统地研究了北半球冬夏准定常行星波的传播规律。邹晓蕾、叶笃正、吴国雄提出了中高纬的相关链、定常地形波链,并指出北美与东亚相关型的差异与两区域地形准定常波在不同纬向流中传播的差异有关。观测分析亦表明,青藏高原是大气低频振荡的强迫源,且在此区域可产生向北、向南或向东、向西传播的波列。     

关于大气环流型季节特征形成的物理因子的数值试验

本文着重研究大气环流季节特征的成因问题。模式试验中将牛顿强迫项的平衡温度斜压结构作类似冬夏气候特征的变化,且加入南北半球大地形强迫作用,研究大气环流型对冬夏全球热力结构特征以及南北半球大地形强迫效应的响应。     

暴雨过程汇合流场不同尺度系统相互影响效应的初步研究

本文研究了大范围暴雨过程不同尺度系统的相互作用,研究结果表明不同尺度系统相互作用可以导致低涡扰动的发展、非地转偏差、低层辐合与急流的加强。本文还采用诊断方法探讨了大范围暴雨过程的斜压发展,大尺度上升运动以及热力结构问题。     

河套华北地区旱涝的前期环流异常与大西洋海温的关系及其数值模拟

首先分析了河套华北地区旱涝的前期异常环流，然后探讨了这种异常环流形成的机制，最后采用了ＯＳＵ－ＡＧＣＭ作了大西洋地区热源异常强迫的数值试验。结果表明，大西洋地区海温异常强迫激发的定常波向上、下游的能量传播，造成的前期秋冬季环流异常与河套华北地区的夏季旱涝有较好的对应关系。