Assessment of uncertainties in the response of the African monsoon precipitation to land use change simulated by a regional model

Land use and land cover (LULC) over Africa have changed substantially over the last 60 years and this change has been proposed to affect monsoon circulation and precipitation. This study examines the uncertainties of model simulated response in the African monsoon system and Sahel precipitation due to LULC change using a set of regional model simulations with different combinations of land surface and cumulus parameterization schemes. Although the magnitude of the response covers a broad range of values, most of the simulations show a decline in Sahel precipitation due to the expansion of pasture and croplands at the expense of trees and shrubs and an increase in surface air temperature. The relationship between the model responses to LULC change and the climatologists of the control simulations is also examined. Simulations that are climatologically too dry or too wet compared to observations and reanalyses have weak response to land use change because they are in moisture or energy limited regimes respectively. The ones that lie in between have stronger response to the LULC changes, showing a more significant role in land–atmosphere interactions. Much of the change in precipitation is related to changes in circulation, particularly to the response of the intensity and latitudinal position of the African Easterly Jet, which varies with the changes in meridional surface temperature gradients. The study highlights the need for measurements of the surface fluxes across the meridional cross-section of the Sahel to evaluate models and thereby allowing human impacts such as land use change on the monsoon to be projected more realistically.     

Impacts of enhanced CCN on the organization of convection and recent reduced counts of monsoon depressions

Monsoon depressions, that form during the Indian summer monsoon season (June to September) are known to be baroclinic disturbances (horizontal scale 2,000–3,000 km) and are driven by deep convection that carries a very large vertical slope towards cold air aloft in the upper troposphere. Deep convection is nearly always organized around the scale of these depressions. In the maintenance of the monsoon depression the generation of eddy kinetic energy on the scale of the monsoon depression is largely governed by the “in scale” covariance of heating and temperature and of vertical velocity and temperature over the region of the monsoon depression. There are normally about 6–8 monsoon depressions during a summer monsoon season. Recent years 2009, 2010 and 2011 saw very few (around 1, 0 and 1 per season respectively). The best numerical models such as those from ECMWF and US (GFS) carried many false alarms in their 3–5 day forecasts, more like 6–8 disturbances. Even in recent years with fewer observed monsoon depressions a much larger number of depressions is noted in ECMWF forecasts. These are fairly comprehensive models that carry vast data sets (surface and satellite based), detailed data assimilation, and are run at very high resolutions. The monsoon depression is well resolved by these respective horizontal resolutions in these models (at 15 and 35 km). These models carry complete and detailed physical parameterizations. The false alarms in their forecasts leads us to suggest that some additional important ingredient may be missing in these current best state of the art models. This paper addresses the effects of pollution for the enhancement of cloud condensation nuclei and the resulting disruption of the organization of convection in monsoon depressions. Our specific studies make use of a high resolution mesoscale model (WRF/CHEM) to explore the impacts of the first and second aerosol indirect effects proposed by Twomey and Albrecht. We have conducted preliminary studies including examination of the evolution of radar reflectivity (computed inversely from the model hydrometeors) for normal and enhanced CCN effects (arising from enhanced monsoon pollution). The time lapse histories show a major disruption in the organization of convection of the monsoon depressions on the time scale of a week to 10 days in these enhanced CCN scenarios.     

Regional climate model projections for the State of Washington

Global climate models do not have sufficient spatial resolution to represent the atmospheric and land surface processes that determine the unique regional climate of the State of Washington. Regional climate models explicitly simulate the interactions between the large-scale weather patterns simulated by a global model and the local terrain. We have performed two 100-year regional climate simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). One simulation is forced by the NCAR Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) and the second is forced by a simulation of the Max Plank Institute, Hamburg, global model (ECHAM5). The mesoscale simulations produce regional changes in snow cover, cloudiness, and circulation patterns associated with interactions between the large-scale climate change and the regional topography and land-water contrasts. These changes substantially alter the temperature and precipitation trends over the region relative to the global model result or statistical downscaling. To illustrate this effect, we analyze the changes from the current climate (1970–1999) to the mid twenty-first century (2030–2059). Changes in seasonal-mean temperature, precipitation, and snowpack are presented. Several climatological indices of extreme daily weather are also presented: precipitation intensity, fraction of precipitation occurring in extreme daily events, heat wave frequency, growing season length, and frequency of warm nights. Despite somewhat different changes in seasonal precipitation and temperature from the two regional simulations, consistent results for changes in snowpack and extreme precipitation are found in both simulations.     

Arsenite sequestration at the surface of nano-Fe(OH)2, ferrous-carbonate hydroxide, and green-rust after bioreduction of arsenic-sorbed lepidocrocite by Shewanella putrefaciens

X-ray Absorption Fine Structure (XAFS) spectroscopy was used in combination with high resolution transmission electron microscopy (HRTEM), electron energy loss spectroscopy (EELS), X-ray energy dispersive spectroscopy (XEDS), X-ray powder diffraction, and Mössbauer spectroscopy to obtain detailed information on arsenic and iron speciation in the products of anaerobic reduction of pure and As(V)- or As(III)-adsorbed lepidocrocite (γ-FeOOH) by Shewanella putrefaciens ATCC 12099. We found that this strain of S. putrefaciens is capable of using Fe(III) in lepidocrocite and As(V) in solution or adsorbed on lepidocrocite surfaces as electron acceptors. Bioreduction of lepidocrocite in the absence of arsenic resulted in the formation of hydroxycarbonate green rust 1 [Fe^II₄Fe^III₂(OH)₁₂CO₃: GR1(CO₃)], which completely converted into ferrous-carbonate hydroxide (Fe^II₂(OH)₂CO₃: FCH) over nine months. This study thus provides the first evidence of bacterial reduction of stoichiometric GR1(CO₃) into FCH. Bioreduction of As(III)-adsorbed lepidocrocite also led to the formation of GR1(CO₃) prior to formation of FCH, but the presence of As(III) slows down this transformation, leading to the co-occurrence of both phases after 22-month of aging. At the end of this experiment, As(III) was found to be adsorbed on the surfaces of GR1(CO₃) and FCH. After five months, bioreduction of As(V)-bearing lepidocrocite led directly to the formation of FCH in association with nanometer-sized particles of a minor As-rich Fe(OH)₂ phase, with no evidence for green rust formation. In this five-month experiment, As(V) was fully converted to As(III), which was dominantly sorbed at the surface of the Fe(OH)₂ nanoparticles as oligomers binding to the edges of Fe(OH)₆ octahedra at the edges of the octahedral layers of Fe(OH)₂. These multinuclear As(III) surface complexes are characterized by As-As pairs at a distance of 3.32 ± 0.02 Å and by As-Fe pairs at a distance of 3.50 ± 0.02 Å and represent a new type of As(III) surface complex. Chemical analyses show that the majority of As(III) produced in the experiments with As present is associated with iron-bearing hydroxycarbonate or hydroxide solids, reinforcing the idea that, at least under some circumstances, bacterial reduction can promote As(III) sequestration instead of mobilizing it into solution.     

Phosphate removal from water by naturally occurring shale,sandstone, and laterite: The role of iron oxides and of soluble species

Aqueous phosphate removal by three geomaterials from Ivory Coast was evaluated to determine their potential application as low-cost phosphate adsorbents in wastewater treatment. Batch experiments showed that phosphate uptake strongly depended on pH. Laterite and sandstone dissolution was less pronounced compared to shale. A correlation between concentrations of aqueous cation species released from shale and phosphate uptake was observed. The kinetics were well described using the pseudo-second-order model. Isotherms displayed a saturation level on shale, while phosphate uptake continuously increased for laterite and sandstone. The removal efficiency decreased in the following ranking order: laterite > sandstone > shale. Laterite was also the most efficient adsorbent in column experiments. The high phosphate removal efficiency of laterite (8.3 mg PO₄ g^?1) was attributed to the presence of superparamagnetic low grain sizes of goethite. Laterite is a particularly promising material for further investigation in wastewater treatment technology such as constructed wetlands.     

Separation of rifting and lithospheric folding signatures in the NW-Alpine foreland

The development of the Alpine mountain belt has been governed by the convergence of the African and European plates since the Late Cretaceous. During the Cenozoic, this orogeny was accompanied with two major kinds of intraplate deformation in the NW-European foreland: (1) the European Cenozoic Rift System (ECRIS), a left-lateral transtensional wrench zone striking NNE-SSW between the western Mediterranean Sea and the Bohemian Massif; (2) long-wavelength lithospheric folds striking NE and located between the Alpine front and the North Sea. The present-day geometry of the European crust comprises the signatures of these two events superimposed on all preceding ones. In order to better define the processes and causes of each event, we identify and separate their respective geometrical signatures on depth maps of the pre-Mesozoic basement and of the Moho. We derive the respective timing of rifting and folding from sedimentary accumulation curves computed for selected locations of the Upper Rhine Graben. From this geometrical and chronological separation, we infer that the ECRIS developed mostly from 37 to 17 Ma, in response to north-directed impingement of Adria into the European plate. Lithospheric folds developed between 17 and 0 Ma, after the azimuth of relative displacement between Adria and Europe turned counter-clockwise to NW–SE. The geometry of these folds (wavelength = 270 km; amplitude = 1,500 m) is consistent with the geometry, as predicted by analogue and numerical models, of buckle folds produced by horizontal shortening of the whole lithosphere. The development of the folds resulted in ca. 1,000 m of rock uplift along the hinge lines of the anticlines (Burgundy–Swabian Jura and Normandy–Vogelsberg) and ca. 500 m of rock subsidence along the hinge line of the intervening syncline (Sologne–Franconian Basin). The grabens of the ECRIS were tilted by the development of the folds, and their rift-related sedimentary infill was reduced on anticlines, while sedimentary accumulation was enhanced in synclines. We interpret the occurrence of Miocene volcanic activity and of topographic highs, and the basement and Moho configurations in the Vosges–Black Forest area and in the Rhenish Massif as interference patterns between linear lithospheric anticlines and linear grabens, rather than as signatures of asthenospheric plumes.

黄河流域未来气候-水文变化的模拟研究

将大尺度半分布式水文模型VIC应用到黄河上中游流域(花园口水文断面以上),并利用区域气候模式RegCM4.0单向嵌套全球气候模式BCC_CSM1.1,动力降尺度到黄河流域的模拟结果驱动VIC模型,开展在新的典型浓度路径下(RCP4.5和RCP8.5)黄河流域未来气候和水文变化的离线模拟。模拟结果显示,在RCP4.5和RCP8.5排放情景下,黄河流域21世纪平均地表气温相对于1971—2000年均呈显著上升趋势,2019—2048年上升1.2—1.5℃,2069—2098年上升2.19—3.9℃。未来年平均降水量有微弱的增大,2019—2048年增幅为6%左右,2069—2098年增幅为1.4%—5.6%。未来蒸发量增大明显,2069—2098年年平均蒸发量最大可增加9.6%。2019—2048年花园口水文站的年平均径流量增大3.4%—7.4%,2069—2098年年平均径流量转为减少,减幅为3.3%—5.3%。黄河上游地区未来气候和水文变化趋势与黄河流域基本一致,但未来年径流量变幅低于黄河流域,相对比较稳定。     

近年中国夏季降水变化特征分析

利用台站观测资料和卫星观测换算资料,分析了近年（2002-2004年）中国夏季日内降水量变化统计学特征,其结果是较为一致的。对于东部大部分地区,日内最强降水易出现在下午到傍晚,对于西部大部分地区易出现在夜晚到清晨。夏季降水以对流降水为主,降水大的地区对应潜热通量也大。由于受观测资料的限制,计算结果有待更多的观测资料来验证。     

ENSO anomalies over the Western United States: present and future patterns in regional climate simulations

Surface temperature, precipitation, specific humidity and wind anomalies associated with the warm and cold phases of ENSO simulated by WRF and HadRM are examined for the present and future decades. WRF is driven by ECHAM5 and CCSM3, respectively, and HadRM is driven by HadCM3. For the current decades, all simulations show some capability in resolving the observed warm-dry and cool-wet teleconnection patterns over the PNW and the Southwest U.S. for warm and cold ENSO. Differences in the regional simulations originate primarily from the respective driving fields. For the future decades, the warm-dry and cool-wet teleconnection patterns in association with ENSO are still represented in ECHAM5-WRF and HadRM. However, there are indications of changes in the ENSO teleconnection patterns for CCSM3-WRF in the future, with wet anomalies dominating in the PNW and the Southwest U.S. for both warm and cold ENSO, in contrast to the canonical patterns of precipitation anomalies. Interaction of anomalous wind flow with local terrain plays a critical role in the generation of anomalous precipitation over the western U.S. Anomalous dry conditions are always associated with anomalous airflow that runs parallel to local mountains and wet conditions with airflow that runs perpendicular to local mountains. Future changes in temperature and precipitation associated with the ENSO events in the regional simulations indicate varying responses depending on the variables examined as well as depending on the phase of ENSO.