A computational approach to Quaternary lake-level reconstruction applied in the central Rocky Mountains,Wyoming, USA

Sediment-based reconstructions of late-Quaternary lake levels provide direct evidence of hydrologic responses to climate change, but many studies only provide approximate lake-elevation curves. Here, we demonstrate a new method for producing quantitative time series of lake elevation based on the facies and elevations of multiple cores collected from a lake's margin. The approach determines the facies represented in each core using diagnostic data, such as sand content, and then compares the results across cores to determine the elevation of the littoral zone over time. By applying the approach computationally, decisions are made systematically and iteratively using different facies classification schemes to evaluate the associated uncertainty. After evaluating our assumptions using ground-penetrating radar (GPR), we quantify past lake-elevation changes, precipitation minus evapotranspiration (Δ_P−ET), and uncertainty in both at Lake of the Woods and Little Windy Hill Pond, Wyoming. The well-correlated (r = 0.802 ± 0.002) reconstructions indicate that water levels at both lakes fell at > 11,300, 8000–5500, and 4700–1600 cal yr BP when Δ_P − ET decreased to − 50 to − 250 mm/yr. Differences between the reconstructions are typically small (10 ± 24 mm/yr since 7000 cal yr BP), and the similarity indicates that our reconstruction method can produce statistically comparable paleohydrologic datasets across networks of sites.     

Narratives of nineteenth century drought in southern Africa in different historical source types

Climatic Change - Single- to multiple-year drought episodes posed significant challenges for agrarian communities across southern Africa during the nineteenth century and hence are widely recorded...     

Reconstructing medieval April-July mean temperatures in East Anglia, 1256–1431

This paper presents the first annually resolved temperature reconstruction for England in the Middle Ages. To effect this reconstruction the starting date of the grain harvest in Norfolk has been employed as a temperature proxy. Using c. 1,000 manorial accounts from Norfolk, 616 dates indicating the onset of the grain harvest were extracted for the period 1256 to 1431 and a composite Norfolk series was constructed. These data were then converted into a temperature series by calibrating a newly constructed comparison series of grain harvest dates in Norfolk from 1768 to 1816 with the Central England Temperature series. These results were verified over the period 1818?C1867. For the British Isles no other annually resolved proxy data are available and the onset of the grain harvest remains the only proxy for assessing April-July mean temperatures. In addition, this is the first time-series regarding the onset of grain harvests in medieval Europe known so far. The long-term trend in the reconstructed medieval temperature series suggests that there was a cooling in the mean April-July temperatures over the period 1256 to 1431. Average temperatures dropped from 13°C to 12.4°C, which possibly indicates the onset of the Little Ice Age. The decline in values was not steady, however, and the reconstruction period contains decades of warmer spring-early summer temperatures (for example the 1320s to the early 1330s and the 1360s) as well as colder conditions (for example the late 1330s, 1340s and the 1380s). The decline in grain-growing-season average temperatures would not have been a major problem for medieval agriculture, rather the phases of very high interannual variability partly found in the medieval time-series, such as 1315?C1335 and 1360?C1375, would have proved disruptive.     

The year-long unprecedented European heat and drought of 1540 – a worst case

The heat waves of 2003 in Western Europe and 2010 in Russia, commonly labelled as rare climatic anomalies outside of previous experience, are often taken as harbingers of more frequent extremes in the global warming-influenced future. However, a recent reconstruction of spring–summer temperatures for WE resulted in the likelihood of significantly higher temperatures in 1540. In order to check the plausibility of this result we investigated the severity of the 1540 drought by putting forward the argument of the known soil desiccation-temperature feedback. Based on more than 300 first-hand documentary weather report sources originating from an area of 2 to 3 million km², we show that Europe was affected by an unprecedented 11-month-long Megadrought. The estimated number of precipitation days and precipitation amount for Central and Western Europe in 1540 is significantly lower than the 100-year minima of the instrumental measurement period for spring, summer and autumn. This result is supported by independent documentary evidence about extremely low river flows and Europe-wide wild-, forest- and settlement fires. We found that an event of this severity cannot be simulated by state-of-the-art climate models.