Influence of convective parameterization on the systematic errors of Climate Forecast System (CFS) model over the Indian monsoon region from an extended range forecast perspective

This study investigates the influence of Simplified Arakawa Schubert (SAS) and Relax Arakawa Schubert (RAS) cumulus parameterization schemes on coupled Climate Forecast System version.1 (CFS-1, T62L64) retrospective forecasts over Indian monsoon region from an extended range forecast perspective. The forecast data sets comprise 45 days of model integrations based on 31 different initial conditions at pentad intervals starting from 1 May to 28 September for the years 2001 to 2007. It is found that mean climatological features of Indian summer monsoon months (JJAS) are reasonably simulated by both the versions (i.e. SAS and RAS) of the model; however strong cross equatorial flow and excess stratiform rainfall are noted in RAS compared to SAS. Both the versions of the model overestimated apparent heat source and moisture sink compared to NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. The prognosis evaluation of daily forecast climatology reveals robust systematic warming (moistening) in RAS and cooling (drying) biases in SAS particularly at the middle and upper troposphere of the model respectively. Using error energy/variance and root mean square error methodology it is also established that major contribution to the model total error is coming from the systematic component of the model error. It is also found that the forecast error growth of temperature in RAS is less than that of SAS; however, the scenario is reversed for moisture errors, although the difference of moisture errors between these two forecasts is not very large compared to that of temperature errors. Broadly, it is found that both the versions of the model are underestimating (overestimating) the rainfall area and amount over the Indian land region (and neighborhood oceanic region). The rainfall forecast results at pentad interval exhibited that, SAS and RAS have good prediction skills over the Indian monsoon core zone and Arabian Sea. There is less excess rainfall particularly over oceanic region in RAS up to 30 days of forecast duration compared to SAS. It is also evident that systematic errors in the coverage area of excess rainfall over the eastern foothills of the Himalayas remains unchanged irrespective of cumulus parameterization and initial conditions. It is revealed that due to stronger moisture transport in RAS there is a robust amplification of moist static energy facilitating intense convective instability within the model and boosting the moisture supply from surface to the upper levels through convergence. Concurrently, moisture detrainment from cloud to environment at multiple levels from the spectrum of clouds in the RAS, leads to a large accumulation of moisture in the middle and upper troposphere of the model. This abundant moisture leads to large scale condensational heating through a simple cloud microphysics scheme. This intense upper level heating contributes to the warm bias and considerably increases in stratiform rainfall in RAS compared to SAS. In a nutshell, concerted and sustained support of moisture supply from the bottom as well as from the top in RAS is the crucial factor for having a warm temperature bias in RAS.     

Role of initial error growth in the extended range prediction skill of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - In the seamless forecast paradigm, it is hypothesized that the reduction in initial error in the dynamical model forecast would help to reduce forecast error...     

On the relationship of cosmic ray intensity with solar,interplanetary, and geophysical parameters

The flux rate of cosmic rays incident on the Earth’s upper atmosphere is modulated by the solar wind and the Earth’s magnetic field. The amount of solar wind is not constant due to changes in solar activity in each solar cycle, and hence the level of cosmic ray modulation varies with solar activity. In this context, we have investigated the variability and the relationship of cosmic ray intensity with solar, interplanetary, and geophysical parameters from January 1982 through December 2008. Simultaneous observations have been made to quantify the exact relationship between the cosmic ray intensity and those parameters during the solar maxima and minima, respectively. It is found that the stronger the interplanetary magnetic field, solar wind plasma velocity, and solar wind plasma temperature, the weaker the cosmic ray intensity. Hence, the lowest cosmic ray intensity has good correlations with simultaneous solar parameters, while the highest cosmic ray intensity does not. Our results show that higher solar activity is responsible for a higher geomagnetic effect and vice versa.     

Radar Observations of Leonid Meteor Shower 2003

Observations carried out during Leonid meteor shower 2003, by using Indian MST radar (13.46^N, 79.18^E; dip 12.5^N) are used to determine the number density of meteoroids through the cross section of the meteor streams. Cross sections are calculated for a number of classes of echo duration (particle size). They are also used to determine the relative flux of the shower in particle size ranges producing radar meteor echoes having durations <0.4 s, 0.4–1 s and >1 s. Mean activity profiles along the Earth's passage through the stream show a systematic change of the peak activity and the width of the stream depending on the distribution of echo durations across the stream. The patterns of mass distribution index s are presented and discussed.     

Low latitude E-region irregularities studied using Gadanki radar,ionosonde and in situ measured electron density

In this paper, we attempt to identify the driving forces responsible for the generation of low-latitude E-region field-aligned irregularities (FAIs). It is evident that the low-latitude E-region FAIs occur both during the day and night with preferential occurrence being most during local sunrise period. Simultaneous measurements are made with Gadanki radar and nearby located Ionosonde for understanding the low-latitude Es–FAIs relationship. The observations suggest that the occurrence and SNR of FAIs have a close relationship with f _t E _s −−f _b E _s . Finally, using the past electron density profiles and reasonable values of electric field, we have shown that it is generally difficult with the gradient drift instability to explain low-latitude E-region FAIs when electric field alone is considered as driving agency. We hypothesize that neutral winds play important role for the generation of irregularities at low latitudes outside the electrojet belt either by forming sharp Es layers or by enhancing the differential drift of electrons and ions or by both.     

Geminid Meteor shower activity 2003–2005 as observed by Gadanki radar

The distribution of meteor signals reflected from a backscatter radar is considered according to their duration. This duration time (T) is used to classify the meteor echoes and to calculate the mass index (S) of different meteoroids of shower plus sporadic background. Observational data on particle size distribution of the Geminid meteor shower are very scarce, particularly at low latitudes. In this paper the observational data from Gadanki radar (13.46°N, 79.18°E) have been used to determine the particle size distribution and the number density of meteoroids inside the stream of the Geminid meteor shower. The mean variation of meteor number density across the stream has been determined for three echo duration classes, T<0.4, T=0.4–1 and T>1 s. We are more interested in the appearance of echoes of various durations and therefore meteors of various masses in order to understand more on the filamentary structure of the stream. It is observed that the faint particle flux peaks earlier than the larger particles. We found a decreasing trend in the mass index values from the day of peak activity to the next observation days. The mass index profile was found to be U-shaped with a minimum value near the time of peak activity. The observed minimum s values are 1.64±0.05 and 1.65±0.04 in the years 2003 and 2005, respectively. The activity of the shower indicates the mass segregation of meteoroids inside the stream. Our results are best comparable with the “scissors” structure model of the meteoroid stream formation of Ryabova [2007. Mathematical modeling of the Geminid meteoroid stream. Mon. Not. R. Astron. Soc. 375, 1371–1380] by considering the asteroid 3200 Phaethon as an extinct comet.     

Heavy metal pollution assessment through comparison of different indices in sewage-fed fishery pond sediments at East Kolkata Wetland,India

The sediments of the raw sewage-fed fishpond system at East Kolkata Wetland (EKW) were analyzed for heavy metal content in a comprehensive way. Various indices of contamination like enrichment factor (EF), geo-chemical index (I _geo), modified degree of contamination (mD_C), and pollution load index (PLI) were assessed. In all cases, instead of literature values, the metal concentrations of less contaminated sites, separated by the statistical approach of the hierarchical cluster analysis, were used as baseline values. In the present study, about 70% of the pond sediments are found uncontaminated, 5% display low degree of contamination and 25% are designated as moderate degree of contamination. Both the EF and I _geo indices highlighted that the metals lead (Pb), cadmium (Cd), and chromium (Cr) are responsible for the contamination while there is little anthropogenic input in cases of Cu, Zn, and Ni. Most of the ponds situated near the main sewage flowing canals as well as the main traffic highway and close to the solid waste dumping areas recorded higher degree of metal contamination as evident from spatial variation of mD_C and PLI indices in the study area. Indices comparison study clearly indicates that although these are calculated using different methods, these may or may not produce the same indices values and hence the values should neither be compared nor be averaged. But all the above indices are directly related to a common term contamination factor (CF). Classification of contamination levels based on these CF values is found to be similar and this classification is only valid up to the level of high degree of contamination. Thus, the use of any one of these indices is sufficient to classify the degree of contamination of an area. However, to evaluate the contamination per metal, both I _geo and EF are effective while, to assess the composite effect of all the metals, PLI is preferable to mD_C.