The Effect of Atmospheric Drag on Satellite Orbits During the Bastille Day Event

Geomagnetic storms driven by solar eruptions are known to have significant effects on the total density of the upper atmosphere in the altitude range 250–1000 km. This in turn causes a measurable effect on the orbits of resident space objects in this altitude range. We analyzed a sample of these orbits, both from sensor data and from orbital element sets, during the period surrounding the 14 July 2000 solar activity. We present information concerning the effects of this event on the orbits of resident space objects and how well accepted atmospheric models were able to represent it. As part of this analysis, we describe a technique for extracting atmospheric density information from orbital element sets. On daily time scales, the effect of geomagnetic activity appears to be more important than that of prompt radiation. However, the limitations in time and amplitude quantization of the accepted solar indices are evident. A limited comparison is also made with previous solar storm events.     

Benchmarking the thermomechanical behaviour of clays — a progress report — the CEC interclay project

In 1989 a small-scale exercise conducted by the CEC as part of its research programme into the underground storage of radioactive waste highlighted the difficulty of making accurate predictions a priori, of the geomechanical behaviour of clay. Given source data about the Boom clay from the underground research facility at Mol, three organisations independently performed f.e. analyses of two somewhat hypothetical problems. While the results were very broadly in agreement, they were shown to be sensitive to both the type of constitutive model used and the way data was fitted to the model.

Subsequently, the CEC sponsored a more comprehensive benchmark exercise called INTERCLAY II. This involves eleven organisations from various member states of the EC in a project encompassing the three aspects of software development for predictive modelling: verification, validation on the laboratory scale and the treatment of in-situ tests. The paper briefly describes the exercise currently in progress and presents the main results achieved to date concentrating on validation aspects.     

Deducing the spatial variability of exchange within a longitudinal channel water balance

Developing an appropriate data collection scheme to infer stream–subsurface interactions is not trivial due to the spatial and temporal variability of exchange flowpaths. Within the context of a case study, this paper presents the results from a number of common data collection techniques ranging from point to reach scales used in combination to better understand the spatial complexity of subsurface exchanges, infer the hydrologic conditions where individual influences of hyporheic and groundwater exchange components on stream water can be characterized, and determine where gaps in information arise. We start with a tracer‐based, longitudinal channel water balance to quantify hydrologic gains and losses at a sub‐reach scale nested within two consecutive reaches. Next, we look at groundwater and stream water surface levels, shallow streambed vertical head gradients, streambed and aquifer hydraulic conductivities, water chemistry, and vertical flux rates estimated from streambed temperatures to provide more spatially explicit information. As a result, a clearer spatial understanding of gains and losses was provided, but some limitations in interpreting results were identified even when combining information collected over various scales. Due to spatial variability of exchanges and areas of mixing, each technique frequently captured a combination of groundwater and hyporheic exchange components. Ultimately, this study provides information regarding technique selection, emphasizes that care must be taken when interpreting results, and identifies the need to apply or develop more advanced methods for understanding subsurface exchanges. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

What is the source of baseflow in agriculturally fragmented catchments? Complex groundwater/surface‐water interactions in three tributary catchments of the Wabash River,Indiana, USA

Some conceptual models suggest that baseflow in agriculturally fragmented watersheds may contain little, if any, groundwater. This has critical implications for stream quality and ecosystem functioning. Here, we (a) identify the sources and flowpaths contributing to baseflow using ²²²Rn and ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and (b) quantify mean apparent ages of groundwater and baseflow using multiple isotopic tracers (CFC, SF₆, ³⁶Cl, and ³H) in 4 small (0.08 to 0.64 km²) tributary catchments to the Wabash River in Indiana, USA. ²²²Rn activities and ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios indicate that baseflow in 3 catchments is sourced primarily from groundwater; baseflow in the fourth is dominated by a source similar to agricultural run‐off. CFC‐12 data indicate that springs in 1 catchment are discharging significant proportions of water that recharged between 1974 (42 ± 2 years) and 1961 (55 ± 2 years). Those same springs have ³⁶Cl/Cl ratios between 1,381.08 ± 29.37 (×10^?15) and 1,530.64 ± 27.65 (×10^?15) indicating that a substantial proportion of the discharge likely recharged between 1975 (41 years) and 1950 (66 years). Groundwater samples collected from streambed mini‐piezometers in a separate catchment have CFC‐12 concentrations indicating that a large proportion of the recharge occurred between 1948 (68 ± 2 years) and 1950 (66 ± 2 years). Repeat sampling conducted in September 2015 after above‐average summer rainfall did not show significant decreases in mean apparent age. The relatively old ages observed in 3 of the catchments can be explained by geological complexities that are likely present in all 4 catchments, but overwhelmed by flow from the shallow phreatic aquifer in the fourth catchment.     

The impact of biofuel-induced food-price inflation on dietary energy demand and dietary greenhouse gas emissions

Dramatic increases in liquid biofuel production have led to concerns about associated impacts on food prices, with many modeling studies showing significant biofuel-related price inflation. In turn, by changing patterns of food demand, biofuel production may indirectly influence greenhouse gas emissions. We estimated changes to dietary energy (calorie) demand and greenhouse gas emissions embodied in average diets under different biofuel-related food-price scenarios for Brazil, China and the United States, using food-price projections and food-price elasticities. Average energy demand decreased in all countries, from about 40 kcal per person per day in Brazil under a moderate price inflation scenario – a reduction of 1% relative to the (2009) reference scenario – to nearly 300 per day in the United States with high price inflation – almost 8% of reference levels. However, emissions per calorie increased slightly in all three countries. In terms of total greenhouse gas emissions, the results are suggestive of overall reductions only in the United States, where average reductions ranged from about 40 to 110 kg of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions per person per year. In China, the direction of impact is unclear, but the net change is likely to be small. Brazilian results were sensitive to parameter values and the direction and magnitude of impact is therefore uncertain. Despite the uncertainty, even small changes (positive or negative) in individual dietary emissions can produce large changes at the population level, arguing for the inclusion of the dietary pathway in greenhouse gas accounting of liquid biofuels.     

Community‐Derived Standards for LA‐ICP‐MS U‐(Th‐)Pb Geochronology – Uncertainty Propagation,Age Interpretation and Data Reporting

The LA‐ICP‐MS U‐(Th‐)Pb geochronology international community has defined new standards for the determination of U‐(Th‐)Pb ages. A new workflow defines the appropriate propagation of uncertainties for these data, identifying random and systematic components. Only data with uncertainties relating to random error should be used in weighted mean calculations of population ages; uncertainty components for systematic errors are propagated after this stage, preventing their erroneous reduction. Following this improved uncertainty propagation protocol, data can be compared at different uncertainty levels to better resolve age differences. New reference values for commonly used zircon, monazite and titanite reference materials are defined (based on ID‐TIMS) after removing corrections for common lead and the effects of excess ²³⁰Th. These values more accurately reflect the material sampled during the determination of calibration factors by LA‐ICP‐MS analysis. Recommendations are made to graphically represent data only with uncertainty ellipses at 2s and to submit or cite validation data with sample data when submitting data for publication. New data‐reporting standards are defined to help improve the peer‐review process. With these improvements, LA‐ICP‐MS U‐(Th‐)Pb data can be considered more robust, accurate, better documented and quantified, directly contributing to their improved scientific interpretation.     

Evaluating the Geographic in GIS

Despite several decades of discussion and debate around the role of GIS in the discipline of Geography, it would be a stretch to argue that GIS has not irreversibly altered the discipline, both in the scope of research and teaching as well as in the wider imagination of a general public. However, it remains a challenge to incorporate the range of geographic knowledge, born of a diversity of modalities, into operational insights and analytical pre‐conditions in a GIS. To be certain, some irreconcilability between GIS and geographical inquiry is to be expected, epistemologically speaking. In what follows, we consider what might be meant by a shift to geographic analysis as scholars from disciplines in the humanities and social sciences turn to GIS as a method of observation, interpretation, analysis, and representation. In this context, we engage in a thought experiment and offer some commentary, fixing the notion of information system, while opening the geographic in GIS to more variable understanding. The point is to pursue greater development of GIS theory and method, encompassing, while not reducing, scientific, social scientific, and humanities research.     

All-sky ultraviolet surveys: the needs and the means

This is a crucial time in the history of astronomy with major all-sky surveying work being carried out in all spectral bands, as well as in astrometry. The results of this activity are advancing all fields of astrophysical research, from the investigation of exo-planetary systems to the study of the chemical evolution of the Universe. Full sky surveys are available from the radio domain to X-ray wavelengths but not in the ultraviolet range (UV). While large UV missions are currently under discussion within the astrophysical community and at the major Space Agencies, the efficient use of resources requires preparatory work that can fill the UV surveying gap. This article summarizes the research and on-going activities in this field.     

Inverse groundwater modelling in the Willunga Basin,South Australia

A new inverse technique for modelling groundwater flow, based on a functional minimization technique, has been used to calibrate a groundwater flow model of a subregion of the Port Willunga aquifer within the Willunga Basin in South Australia. The Willunga Basin is the location of extensive viticulture, irrigated primarily by groundwater, the levels and quality of which have declined significantly over the last 40 years. The new method is able to generate estimates of transmissivity, storativity and groundwater recharge over the whole subregion as a time-varying continuous surface; previous methods estimate local discrete parameter values at specific times. The new method has also been shown to produce accurate head values for the subregion and very good estimates of groundwater recharge. Its ultimate goal will be to provide a new and invaluable tool for significantly improved groundwater resource management. Supported in part by US National Science Foundation grants, DMS-0107492 and DMS-0079478.