Frequency analysis of climate extreme events in Zanjan, Iran

In this study, generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) and generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) were fitted to the maximum and minimum temperature, maximum wind speed, and maximum precipitation series of Zanjan. Maximum (minimum) daily and absolute annual observations of Zanjan station from 1961 to 2011 were used. The parameters of the distributions were estimated using the maximum likelihood estimation method. Quantiles corresponding to 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years return periods were calculated. It was found that both candidate distributions fitted to extreme events series, were statistically reasonable. Most of the observations from 1961 to 2011 were found to fall within 1–10 years return period. Low extremal index (θ) values were found for excess maximum and minimum temperatures over a high threshold, indicating the occurrence of consecutively high peaks. For the purpose of filtering the dependent observations to obtain a set of approximately independent threshold excesses, a declustering method was performed, which separated the excesses into clusters, then the de-clustered peaks were fitted to the GPD. In both models, values of the shape parameters of extreme precipitation and extreme wind speed were close to zero. The shape parameter was less negative in the GPD than the GEV. This leads to significantly lower return period estimates for high extremes with the GPD model.     

Coping with water scarcity in Kashafroud G-WADI Basin,Iran: climate change or growing demands?

This paper assesses the various factors contributing to climate change in the region of the Kashafroud G-WADI Basin in Iran; quantifies the local impacts of climate change, especially local water scarcity; and simulates and discusses several proposed methods to combat these impacts. Hydrologic and climatic data are statistically analyzed and VENSIM modeling is used for various simulations of water resources in the basin. Results show that the natural climate changes affecting Kashafroud Basin include increased temperature, less rainfall, more frequent droughts, and changes in rainfall patterns, all of which are local symptoms of climate change in recent years. However, the most important challenge in the basin is the overexploitation of surface and groundwater resources to meet the growing water demands, especially domestic needs. Changes in land use, reallocation of water uses, groundwater depletion, and degradation of the quality of surface waters have all contributed to significant changes in the environmental features of this basin, and are the main reason why water demands now exceed the renewal capacity of the basin. Proposed response measures include reallocation of resources among different uses, inter-basin water transfers, drawing water from six small dams on the Kashafroud River, reducing groundwater extraction, and replacing groundwater extraction for agriculture by reuse of urban wastewater. This study concludes that although changes in global climatic parameters have altered environmental features in the basin, local factors, such as water utilization beyond the renewable capacity of the basin, are more significant in worsening the impacts of climate change.     

An advanced GNSS code multipath detection and estimation algorithm

A novel maximum likelihood-based range estimation algorithm is designed to provide robustness to multipath, which is recognized as a dominant error source in DS-CDMA-based navigation systems. The detection–estimation problem is jointly solved to sequentially estimate the parameters of each individual multipath component and predict the existence of a next possible component. A comparison between contemporary maximum likelihood-based multipath estimation techniques and this new technique is provided. A selection of realistic channel simulation models is used to assess relative performance under different operating situations. A set of real GPS L1/CA data processing results are also presented to further assess the applicability of the proposed algorithm for urban navigation.     

Study on the Erodibility and Mechanical Resistance of Mulches Prepared from Micro Silica–Cement Mixtures

Geotechnical and Geological Engineering - Mulching is fastest strategy to control sand dune movement in arid and semiarid areas. In the present study the effect of micro silica- cement mixture was...     

Relative importance of acid coating on ice nuclei in the deposition and contact modes for wintertime Arctic clouds and radiation

Aerosols emitted from volcanic activities and polluted mid-latitudes regions are efficiently transported over the Arctic during winter by the large-scale atmospheric circulation. These aerosols are highly acidic. The acid coating on ice nuclei, which are present among these aerosols, alters their ability to nucleate ice crystals. In this research, the effect of acid coating on deposition and contact ice nuclei on the Arctic cloud and radiation is evaluated for January 2007 using a regional climate model. Results show that the suppression of contact freezing by acid coating on ice nuclei leads to small changes of the cloud microstructure and has no significant effect on the cloud radiative forcing (CRF) at the top of the atmosphere when compared with the effect of the alteration of deposition ice nucleation by acid coating on deposition ice nuclei. There is a negative feedback by which the suppression of contact freezing leads to an increase of the ice crystal nucleation rate by deposition ice nucleation. As a result, the suppression of contact freezing leads to an increase of the cloud ice crystal concentration. Changes in the cloud liquid and ice water contents remain small and the CRF is not significantly modified. The alteration of deposition ice nucleation by acid coating on ice nuclei is dominant over the alteration of contact freezing.     

Mechanical properties of lime-treated clay reinforced with different types of randomly distributed fibers

In this paper, a comparative experimental study was carried out to evaluate the effect of inclusion of different fiber types on strength of lime-stabilized clay. In this scope, a series of unconfined compressive strength tests were carried out on specimens including basalt and polypropylene fiber compacted under Standard Proctor effort (i.e., 35% by weight of soil). The effects of curing period (1, 7, 28, and 90 days), fiber type (basalt and polypropylene), fiber content (0, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, 1%), fiber length (6, 12, and 19 mm), and lime content (0 and 9%) on strength properties were investigated. The results revealed that both basalt and polypropylene fibers increased the strength without inclusion of lime. For specimens including lime, strength of polypropylene fiber-reinforced specimens was remarkably higher than that reinforced with basalt fiber for lime-stabilized clay. However, greatest strength improvement was obtained by use of 0.75% basalt fiber of 19 mm length with 9% lime content after 90-day curing. Additionally, results of strength tests on specimens including 3 and 6% lime and 12-mm basalt fiber after 1, 7, 28, and 90-day curing were presented. It is evident that the use of 6-mm basalt fiber and 12-mm polypropylene fiber were the best options; however, efficiency of fiber inclusion is subject to change by varying lime contents. It was also observed that the secant modulus was increased by use of lime; however, strength of the correlations among secant modulus and unconfined compressive strength values was decreased by increasing amount of lime for specimens including both basalt and polypropylene fibers.     

Seismic microzonation and earthquake damage scenarios for urban areas

A methodology for seismic microzonation and earthquake damage scenarios may be considered as composed of two stages. In the first stage, microzonation maps with respect to estimated earthquake characteristics on the ground surface are generated for an investigated urban area. The effects of local geological and geotechnical site conditions are taken into account based on site characterization with respect to representative soil profiles extending down to the engineering bedrock. 1D site response analyses are performed to calculate earthquake characteristics on the ground surface using as many as possible, hazard compatible real acceleration time histories. In the second stage, vulnerability of buildings and pipeline systems are estimated based on site-specific ground motion parameters. A pilot study is carried out to evaluate seismic damage in a district in Istanbul, Turkey. The results demonstrate the significance of site characterization and site response analysis in calculating the earthquake characteristics on the ground surface in comparison to simplified empirical procedures.     

An upscaling approach using adaptive multi-resolution upgridding and automated relative permeability adjustment

The upscaling process of a high-resolution geostatistical reservoir model to a dynamic simulation grid model plays an important role in a reservoir study. Several upscaling methods have been proposed in order to create balance between the result accuracy and computation speed. Usually, a high-resolution grid model is upscaled according to the heterogeneities assuming single phase flow. However, during injection processes, the relative permeability adjustment is required. The so-called pseudo-relative permeability curves are accepted, if their corresponding coarse model is a good representation of the fine-grid model. In this study, an upscaling method based on discrete wavelet transform (WT) is developed for single-phase upscaling based on the multi-resolution analysis (MRA) concepts. Afterwards, an automated optimization method is used in which evolutionary genetic algorithm is applied to estimate the pseudo-relative permeability curves described with B-spline formulation. In this regard, the formulation of B-spline is modified in order to describe the relative permeability curves. The proposed procedure is evaluated in the gas injection case study from the SPE 10th comparative solution project’s data set which provides a benchmark for upscaling problems [1]. The comparisons of the wavelet-based upscaled model to the high-resolution model and uniformly coarsened model show considerable speedup relative to the fine-grid model and better accuracy relative to the uniformly coarsened model. In addition, the run time of the wavelet-based coarsened model is comparable with the run time of the uniformly upscaled model. The optimized coarse models increase the speed of simulation up to 90% while presenting similar results as fine-grid models. Besides, using two different production/injection scenarios, the superiority of WT upscaling plus relative permeability adjustment over uniform upscaling and relative permeability adjustment is presented. This study demonstrates the proposed upscaling workflow as an effective tool for a reservoir simulation study to reduce the required computational time.