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1.
VOLKER GREWE MARTIN DAMERIS RALF HEIN ROBERT SAUSEN BENEDIKT STEIL 《Tellus. Series B, Chemical and physical meteorology》2001,53(2):103-121
The development of the future atmospheric chemical composition is investigated with respect to NO y and O3 by means of the off‐line coupled dynamic‐chemical general circulation model ECHAM3/CHEM. Two time slice experiments have been performed for the years 1992 and 2015, which include changes in sea surface temperatures, greenhouse gas concentrations, emissions of CFCs, NO x and other species, i.e., the 2015 simulation accounts for changes in chemically relevant emissions and for a climate change and its impact on air chemistry. The 2015 simulation clearly shows a global increase in ozone except for large areas of the lower stratosphere, where no significant changes or even decreases in the ozone concentration are found. For a better understanding of the importance of (A) emissions like NO x and CFCs, (B) future changes of air temperature and water vapour concentration, and (C) other dynamical parameters, like precipitation and changes in the circulation, diabatic circulation, stratosphere‐troposphere‐exchange, the simulation of the future atmosphere has been performed stepwise. This method requires a climate‐chemistry model without interactive coupling of chemical species. Model results show that the direct effect of emissions (A) plays a major rôle for the composition of the future atmosphere, but they also clearly show that climate change (B and C) has a significant impact and strongly reduces the NO y and ozone concentration in the lower stratosphere. 相似文献
2.
KEVIN ROBERT GURNEY RACHEL M. LAW A. SCOTT DENNING PETER J. RAYNER DAVID BAKER PHILIPPE BOUSQUET LORI BRUHWILER YU-HAN CHEN PHILIPPE CIAIS SONGMIAO FAN INEZ Y. FUNG MANUEL GLOOR MARTIN HEIMANN KAZ HIGUCHI JASMIN JOHN EVA KOWALCZYK TAKASHI MAKI SHAMIL MAKSYUTOV PHILIPPE PEYLIN MICHAEL PRATHER BERNARD C. PAK JORGE SARMIENTO SHOICHI TAGUCHI TARO TAKAHASHI CHIU-WAI YUEN 《Tellus. Series B, Chemical and physical meteorology》2003,55(2):555-579
3.
VARIATIONS OF SNOW DEPTH AND DURATION IN THE SWISS ALPS OVER THE LAST 50 YEARS: LINKS TO CHANGES IN LARGE-SCALE CLIMATIC FORCINGS 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:2
MARTIN BENISTON 《Climatic change》1997,36(3-4):281-300
A study of snow statistics over the past 50 years at several climatological stations in the Swiss Alps has highlighted periods in which snow was either abundant or not. Periods with relative low snow amounts and duration are closely linked to the presence of persistent high surface pressure fields over the Alpine region during late Fall and in Winter. These high pressure episodes are accompanied by large positive temperature anomalies and low precipitation, both of which are unfavorable for snow accumulation during the Winter. The fluctuations of seasonal to annual pressure in the Alpine region is strongly correlated with anomalies of the North Atlantic Oscillation index, which is a measure of the strength of the westerly flow over the Atlantic. This implies that large-scale forcing, and not local or regional factors, plays a dominant role in controling the timing and amount of snow in the Alps, as evidenced by the abundance or dearth of snow over several consecutive years. Furthermore, since the mid-1980s, the length of the snow season and snow amount have substantially decreased, as a result of pressure fields over the Alps which have been far higher and more persistent than at any other time this century. A detailed analysis of a number of additional Alpine stations for the last 15 years shows that the sensitivity of the snow-pack to climatic fluctuations diminishes above 1750 m. In the current debate on anthropogenically-induced climatic change, this altitude is consistent with other studies and estimates of snow-pack sensitivity to past and projected future global warming. 相似文献
4.
The existence of a large subglacial lake beneath the antarctic Ice Sheet at Terre Adélie indicates the presence of basal ice at its pressure-melting temperature. A numerical model of the ice-sheet thermal regime is employed using the balance velocity of the ice sheet as an initial model input in order to calculate ice-sheet basal temperatures. However, the results from this model show the Terre Adélie area to be characterised by basal freezing. Heat in addition to that accounted for in the model is thus required at the ice-sheet base in order for pressure melting temperatures to be attained. The sources for such heat are (1) an enhanced geothermal heat flux and (2) an increase in frictional heating caused by the flow of ice. In this paper the latter possibility is expanded by hypothesising that subglacial topography induces convergent ice flow around Terre Adélie, causing enhanced basal ice velocities. Model experiments indicate that an increase in ice velocity (from 7 to at least 42 m yr−1 ) is required to raise the temperature of the basal ice to the pressure melting value. Increased ice velocity, and consequent frictional heat production due to convergent ice flow, may therefore be important in explaining the location of the subglacial lake in this region. These results allow the process of convergent ice flow within a contemporary ice sheet to be quantified. A verification (or otherwise) of the model results may be possible if ice surface velocity measurements from modem GPS methods are made. 相似文献
5.
MARTIN J. PASQUALETTI 《Geographical review》1997,87(1):73-91
ABSTRACT. From the perspective of a human lifetime, the hazards of some nuclear wastes are permanent, so the warnings we place at contaminated nuclear sites must be permanent too. I address questions of how best to provide one hundred centuries of public warning at the first facility for permanent disposal, the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant in New Mexico. Scenarios of intrusion developed to guide the design of warning markers predicted that most of the changes in the area will be social and cultural. Because blatant and permanent markers will increase, not reduce, the probability of inadvertent intrusion, the most appropriate warning is a “landscape of illusion.” Such a landscape needs not permanent surface markers but underground warning devices beneath a soft surface marker. No warning can guarantee deterrence for 10,000 years, however. 相似文献
6.
KONZETT JURGEN; MILLER CHRISTINE; ARMSTRONG RICHARD; THONI MARTIN 《Journal of Petrology》2005,46(4):717-747
Olivine-rich rocks containing olivine + orthopyroxene + spinel+ Ca-amphibole ± clinopyroxene ± garnet are presentin the central ÖtztalStubai crystalline basementassociated with eclogites of tholeiitic affinity. These rockscontain centimetre-sized garnet layers and lenses with garnet+ clinopyroxene ± corundum. Protoliths of the olivine-richrocks are thought to be olivine + orthopyroxene + spinel dominatedcumulates generated from an already differentiated Fe-rich () tholeiitic magma that was emplaced into shallowcontinental crust. Protoliths of the garnet-rich rocks are interpretedas layers enriched in plagioclase and spinel intercalated ina cumulate rock sequence that is devoid of, or poor in, plagioclase.UPb sensitive high-resolution ion microprobe dating ofzircons from a garnet layer indicates that emplacement of thecumulates took place no later than 517 ± 7 Myr ago. Aftertheir emplacement, the cumulates were subjected to progressivemetamorphism, reaching eclogite-facies conditions around 800°Cand >2 GPa during a Variscan metamorphic event between 350and 360 Ma. Progressive high-P metamorphism induced breakdownof spinel to form garnet in the olivine-rich rocks and of plagioclase+ spinel to form garnet + clinopyroxene ± corundum inthe garnet layers. Retrogressive metamorphism at T 650680°Cled to the formation of Ca-amphibole, chlorite and talc in theolivine-rich rocks. In the garnet layers, högbomite formedfrom corundum + spinel along with Al-rich spinel, Ca-amphibole,chlorite, aspidolitepreiswerkite, magnetite, ilmeniteand apatite at the interface between olivine-rich rocks andgarnet layers at P < 0·8 GPa. Progressive desiccationof retrogade fluids through crystallization of hydrous phasesled to a local formation of saline brines in the garnet layers.The presence of these brines resulted in a late-stage formationof Fe- and K-rich Ca-amphibole and Sr-rich apatite, both characterizedby extremely high Cl contents of up to 3·5 and 6·5wt % Cl, respectively. KEY WORDS: cumulates; Variscan metamorphism; SHRIMP dating; högbomite; saline brines 相似文献
7.
We demonstrate that there is significant skill in the GloSea5 operational seasonal forecasting system for predicting June mean rainfall in the middle/lower Yangtze River basin up to four months in advance. Much of the rainfall in this region during June is contributed by the mei-yu rain band. We find that similar skill exists for predicting the East Asian summer monsoon index(EASMI) on monthly time scales, and that the latter could be used as a proxy to predict the regional rainfall. However, th... 相似文献
8.
9.
Repeated dye tracer tests were undertaken from individual moulins at Haut Glacier d'Arolla, Switzerland, over a number of diurnal discharge cycles during the summers of 1989–1991. It was hoped to use the concepts of at-a-station hydraulic geometry to infer flow conditions in subglacial channels from the form of the velocity–discharge relationships derived from these tests. The results, however, displayed both clockwise and anticlockwise velocity–discharge hysteresis, in addition to the simple power function relationship assumed in the hydraulic geometry approach. Clockwise hysteresis seems to indicate that a moulin drains into a small tributary channel rather than directly into an arterial channel, and that discharges in the two channels vary out of phase with each other. Anticlockwise hysteresis is accompanied by strong diurnal variations in the value of dispersivity derived from the dye breakthrough curve, and is best explained by hydraulic damming of moulins or sub/englacial passageways. Despite the complex velocity–discharge relationships observed, some indication of subglacial flow conditions may be obtained if tributary channels comprise only a small fraction of the drainage path and power function velocity–discharge relationships are derived from dye injections conducted during periods when the supraglacial discharge entering the moulin and the bulk discharge vary in phase. Analyses based on this premise suggest that both open and closed channel flow occur beneath Haut Glacier d'Arolla, and that flow conditions are highly variable at and between sites. 相似文献
10.
The Perseverance Ultramafic Complex, Western Australia: The Product of a Komatiite Lava River 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
The Perseverance ultramafic complex is a body of olivine-richkomatiitic rocks spatially associated with the Agnew nickeldeposit, in the Agnew-Wiluna greenstone belt of the ArchaeanYilgarn Block in Western Australia. The complex consists ofa central lenticular body, up to 700 m thick, of olivine adcumulates,flanked by laterally extensive sheet-like bodies of olivineorthocumulates and spinifextextured komatiite flows. Rocks progressivelyfurther away from the central lens have chemical compositionsreflecting higher original proportions of komatiite liquid tocumulus olivine. Parent liquids had MgO contents between 25and 32% MgO, approximately chondritic Al/Ti ratios and HREEpatterns, and moderate depletion in LREE. Olivines within the adcumulate lens show a progressive increasein forsterite content from Fo93 at the bottom to Fo94?5, atthe top. Calculated original olivine compositions in the flankingrocks are similar to those at the base of the central lens.Original olivine nickel contents show a symmetrical variationfrom maximum values of 3500 ppm at the top of the central lens,through minimum values of 1000 ppm at the base and margins ofthe central lens to intermediate values in the distal rocks.The complex as a whole shows evidence for nickel depletion relativeto other komatiite suites. These observations are explained in terms of prolonged eruptionand flow of komatiitic lava down a major flow channel or lavariver. Adcumulates crystallized on the floor and sides of thecentral channel, which was formed at an early stage by thermalerosion of floor rocks. Episodic overflow of the central channelproduced distal flood plain rocks consisting ofolivine orthocumulates and layered flows. Lavas became moremagnesian and nickel-rich with time, giving rise to the observedspatial variation in primary olivine composition. Nickel depletionof the earliest lavas is attributed to pre-eruption segregationof large volumes of immiscible Fe-Ni-sulfide, which were concentratedto form the underlying Agnew nickel deposit. 相似文献