基于PSR-WSVM模型的边坡位移预测

为建立高精度的边坡位移预测模型，采用相空间重构（PSR）将边坡位移时间序列数据转换为多维数据，同时构造小波核函数改进的支持向量机模型，建立PSR-WSVM模型并应用于边坡位移预测。将PSR-WSVM模型预测结果与传统支持向量机（SVM）模型、小波支持向量机（WSVM）模型和基于相空间重构的支持向量机（PSR-SVM）模型预测结果进行对比，通过平均绝对误差（MAE）、平均绝对误差百分比（MAPE）和均方根误差（RMSE）3个精度评价指标验证PSR-WSVM模型的可行性。工程实例结果表明，PSR-WSVM模型预测结果的3个精度评价指标都优于另外3种模型，边坡位移预测的精度明显提升。     

PRELIMINARY STUDY ON THE FLOODING AND DROUGHT CLAMITY DURING PAST 1500 YEARS IN THE HAI′AN REGION，JIANGSU PROVINCE

Collection and arrangement of the historical records of climatic changes and environment evolution,espectial-lyin the aspect of calamities,are made on the history documents of past 1500 years about Haiˊan region,Jiangsu Province.There existed two obvious flooding-drought frequently-occurring periods:one was from 1550 AD to 1850 AD and another was 100 AD to 1200AD.The period of 1550 AD to1850 AD is interrupted by two relatively arid and cold climatic periods:one was from 1630 AD to 1700 AD and another was 1750 AD to 1820 AD.The main characteristic of the calamity periods is that they occurred by turns,and sometimes,both drought and flooding occurred in the same year.The instability of the climatic changes in the Little Ice Age may be the main reason of the frequently-occurring flooding and drought in Haiˊan region.Research results also show that the frequently-occurring periods of flooding and drought is in close relationship with the solar activity,and therefore,occurrence of the flooding and drought may be in relation with the intensity of the solar activity.This hypothesis may need further study in the future.     

Variability of Soft X—ray Spectral Shape in Blazars Observed by ROSAT

1 INTRODUCTION Blazars, including BL Lac objects, highly polarized and optically violently variable quasars,and flat-spectrum radio quasars (FSRQs), are characterized by highly variable non-thermalemission which dominates their characteristics from radio to y-ray bands. The mechanismbelieved to be responsible for their broadband emission is synchrotron radiation followed by in-verse Compton (IC) scattering at higher energies (e.g. Blandford & Konigl 1979). Relativisticbeaming of a jet…     

Preliminary investigation of mercury in bone tissues of skua and penguin in Antarctica using AFS and Synchrotron Radiation X-ray Fluorescence （SR-XRF）

Mercury （Hg） was investigated in bone tissues of skua （ Catharacta maccormick） and penguin （Pygoscelis adeliae） collected in the maritime Antarctic using atomic fluorescence spectrometry （AFS） and synchrotron radiation X-ray fluorescence （SR-XRF） method. The total levels of mercury in bone tissues of penguin and skua are much lower than those in other organs （e. g. , kidney, liver）. The toxic effects of mercury in bone tissues of seabirds in polar region are not known. We have used SR- XRF method to map the distribution of trace levels of mercury in bones. The levels of mercury are found to be enriched somewhere near the periosteal surface and/or endosteal surface. The distribution of mercury shows strongly correlation with that of some essential elements and probably poses negative effect on the bone metabolism inferring from the relationship of mercury with the other elements. These studies represent a first step toward understanding the toxic effects of mercury on bone of polar animals by suggesting the possible microscopic investigation.     

Multi-wavelength Diagnostics of Bombardment by Non-thermal Particles in Solar Flares

Chromospheric lines, including Ha, Lyα, Lyβand CaⅡK, CaⅡ8542, are systemically and quantitatively investigated with respect to the non-thermal excitation and ionization due to particle beam bombardment for a series of solar semi-empirical atmospheric models. As a result we propose to use the contrast in the integrated intensity of hydrogen lines to estimate the total energy flux of the bombarding beam during the solar flare impulsive phase. Partial frequency redistribution is considered in the Lyαline calculation and a smaller intensity enhancement in the Ha line-centers is found than in the previous results of Fang et al.     

中国1∶100万景观生态制图设计

中国1∶100万景观生态图系借鉴国内外传统景观制图方法和制图规范,在遥感、地理信息系统先进技术的支持下,设计研制其制图方法、制图内容、样图和技术流程,同时提出初步的景观分类系统,为今后编制中国1∶100万景观生态图奠定基础。     

莱州湾南岸潍河下游地区咸水入侵灾害成因及特征

通过对莱州湾南岸咸水入侵较严重地潍河下游地区晚更新世以来沉积特征及现代自然环境条件变化的分析，探讨了沉积相对咸水入侵产生及空间范围特征的环境机理。晚更新世以来的三次海平面升降变化造成了潍河下游地区海陆沉积环境交替，形成了巨厚的海陆交互相沉积层。海进时期，大面积的滨海平原被淹没，在近海平原洼地滞留的海水经过蒸发、浓缩变为卤水，成为咸水入侵的物源；海退后陆源碎屑在滨海地区沉积形成了巨厚的古河道砂层。20世纪70年代末期以来，随着对地下淡水的过度开采，淡咸水水头压力差减小．卤水通过古河道砂层快速南侵。通过对潍河下游地区100余个地质钻孔水化学连续监测资料分析，阐明了咸水入侵的特征，有针对性地提出了咸水入侵的防治措施。     

用C#.Net实现软件系统的动态更新

为了便于大型软件系统的后续开发和用户软件系统的升级，介绍了软件系统在Internet/Intranet上更新功能或数据的原理和方法，并用C#．Net进行了编程实现。     

西秦岭温泉花岗岩体岩石学特征及岩浆混合标志

温泉花岗岩体由酸性端元的寄主岩石和暗色微细粒镁铁质包体群及基性岩墙群组成。无岩浆混合作用或岩浆混合作用较弱区段，寄主岩石以似斑状二长花岗岩为主．显示正常的花岗岩结构构造岩浆混合作用强烈区段。岩石的异常结构构造十分发育．矿物之间自形程度差异显著．常见包晶反应、包含结构、交代边、熔蚀边、交代蚕食的港湾状结构构造及交代缝合线、矿物镶边、斜长石异常环带和矿物残留等，多见指示岩浆混合的标志性矿物针状磷灰石。暗色微粒包体中多见寄主二长花岗岩中的捕掳晶。包体的形态、结构构造以及与寄主岩石强烈地成分交换等均是岩浆混合作用的标志。     

地壳对海洋潮汐的响应

应用三维动态有限元方法研究了中国北部地区的地壳对邻近的渤海与黄海海平面变化的响应。虽然此应力场过于微弱不足以引发地震，但发现应力集中的位置及应力场变化较大的位置恰好与某些现代地震的震中一致。这一结果表明研究地壳对广泛分布的载荷的响应对研究区域地震构造是有帮助的。