Predicting quantiles of water quality from catchment characteristics

Water quality is often highly variable both in space and time, which poses challenges for modelling the more extreme concentrations. This study developed an alternative approach to predicting water quality quantiles at individual locations. We focused on river water quality data that were collected over 25 years, at 102 catchments across the State of Victoria, Australia. We analysed and modelled spatial patterns of the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 90th percentiles of the concentrations of sediments, nutrients and salt, with six common constituents: total suspended solids (TSS), total phosphorus (TP), filterable reactive phosphorus (FRP), total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN), nitrate-nitrite (NO_x), and electrical conductivity (EC). To predict the spatial variation of each quantile for each constituent, we developed statistical regression models and exhaustively searched through 50 catchment characteristics to identify the best set of predictors for that quantile. The models predict the spatial variation in individual quantiles of TSS, TKN and EC well (66%–96% spatial variation explained), while those for TP, FRP and NO_x have lower performance (37%–73% spatial variation explained). The most common factors that influence the spatial variations of the different constituents and quantiles are: annual temperature, percentage of cropping land area in catchment and channel slope. The statistical models developed can be used to predict how low- and high-concentration quantiles change with landscape characteristics, and thus provide a useful tool for catchment managers to inform planning and policy making with changing climate and land use conditions.     

GDJ人卫目视观测数据采集和处理系统的研制

本文介绍了ＧＤＪ跟踪打印经纬仪在人造卫星的观测中如何应用计算机对多圈卫星的目视观测资料进行实时采集、处理等工作过程的原理和方法。     

Preliminary investigation of mercury in bone tissues of skua and penguin in Antarctica using AFS and Synchrotron Radiation X-ray Fluorescence （SR-XRF）

Mercury （Hg） was investigated in bone tissues of skua （ Catharacta maccormick） and penguin （Pygoscelis adeliae） collected in the maritime Antarctic using atomic fluorescence spectrometry （AFS） and synchrotron radiation X-ray fluorescence （SR-XRF） method. The total levels of mercury in bone tissues of penguin and skua are much lower than those in other organs （e. g. , kidney, liver）. The toxic effects of mercury in bone tissues of seabirds in polar region are not known. We have used SR- XRF method to map the distribution of trace levels of mercury in bones. The levels of mercury are found to be enriched somewhere near the periosteal surface and/or endosteal surface. The distribution of mercury shows strongly correlation with that of some essential elements and probably poses negative effect on the bone metabolism inferring from the relationship of mercury with the other elements. These studies represent a first step toward understanding the toxic effects of mercury on bone of polar animals by suggesting the possible microscopic investigation.     

中国古生教授学会微体古生物学分会举行代表大会和学术年会

中国古生教授学会微体古生物学分会举行代表大会和学术年会中国古竽物学会微体古物学分会第五次会员代表大分暨第六次不术年会于１９９６年１月２４日到３０日在福州市召开。来自全国地质、石油、煤炭的和产、科研和大学的１００多位代表参加了这次大会和学术研讨。大会共...     

地壳对海洋潮汐的响应

应用三维动态有限元方法研究了中国北部地区的地壳对邻近的渤海与黄海海平面变化的响应。虽然此应力场过于微弱不足以引发地震，但发现应力集中的位置及应力场变化较大的位置恰好与某些现代地震的震中一致。这一结果表明研究地壳对广泛分布的载荷的响应对研究区域地震构造是有帮助的。     

The Relation between the Amplitude and the Period of Solar Cycles

The maximum amplitudes of solar activity cycles are found to be well anti-correlated (r = -0.72) with the newly defined solar cycle lengths three cycles before (at lag -3) in 13-month running mean sunspot numbers during the past 190 years. This result could be used for predicting the maximum sunspot numbers. The amplitudes of Cycles 24 and 25 are estimated to be 149.5±27.6 and 144.3±27.6, respectively.     

Finding KBO Flyby Targets for New Horizons

Development of the New Horizons mission to Pluto and the Kuiper Belt is now fully funded by NASA (Stern and Spencer, this volume). If all goes well, New Horizons will be launched in January 2006, followed by a Jupiter gravity assist in 2007, with Pluto arrival expected in either 2015 or 2016, depending on the launch vehicle chosen. A backup launch date of early 2007, without a Jupiter flyby, would give a Pluto arrival in 2019 or 2020. In either case, a flyby of at least one Kuiper Belt object (KBO) is planned following the Pluto encounter, sometime before the spacecraft reaches a heliocentric distance of 50 AU, in 2021 or 2023 for the 2006 launch, and 2027 or 2029 for the 2007 launch. However, none of the almost 1000 currently-known KBOs will pass close enough to the spacecraft trajectory to be targeted by New Horizons, so the KBO flyby depends on finding a suitable target among the estimated 500,000 KBOs larger than 40 km in diameter. This paper discusses the issues involved in finding one or more KBO targets for New Horizons. The New Horizons team plans its own searches for mission KBOs but will welcome other U.S, or international team who wish to become involved in exchange for mission participation at the KBO.     

A multi‐level parallelized substructuring‐frontal solution for coupled thermo/hydro/mechanical problems in unsaturated soil

This paper proposes a multi‐level parallelized substructuring–frontal combined algorithm for the analysis of the problem of thermo/hydraulic/mechanical behaviour of unsaturated soil. Temperature, displacement, pore water pressure and pore air pressure are treated as the primary variables in a non‐linear analysis. Details are given firstly of the substructuring–frontal combined approach. The incorporation of the algorithm in a multi‐level parallel strategy is then discussed. The parallel processing can thus be carried out at different substructural levels. The method thus developed impacts, in a positive way, on both computer storage requirement and execution time. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Three Super Active Regions in the Descending Phase of Solar Cycle 23

We analyze the magnetic configurations of three super active regions, NOAA 10484, 10486 and 10488, observed by the Huairou Multi-Channel Solar Telescope (MCST) from 2003 October 18 to November 4. Many energetic phenomena, such as flares (including a X-28 flare) and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), occurred during this period. We think that strong shear and fast emergence of magnetic flux are the main causes of these events. The question is also of great interest why these dramatic eruptions occurred so close together in the descending phase of the solar cycle.