Multi-proxy summer and winter precipitation reconstruction for southern Africa over the last 200 years

This study presents the first consolidation of palaeoclimate proxy records from multiple archives to develop statistical rainfall reconstructions for southern Africa covering the last two centuries. State-of-the-art ensemble reconstructions reveal multi-decadal rainfall variability in the summer and winter rainfall zones. A decrease in precipitation amount over time is identified in the summer rainfall zone. No significant change in precipitation amount occurred in the winter rainfall zone, but rainfall variability has increased over time. Generally synchronous rainfall fluctuations between the two zones are identified on decadal scales, with common wet (dry) periods reconstructed around 1890 (1930). A strong relationship between seasonal rainfall and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the surrounding oceans is confirmed. Coherence among decadal-scale fluctuations of southern African rainfall, regional SST, SSTs in the Pacific Ocean and rainfall in south-eastern Australia suggest SST-rainfall teleconnections across the southern hemisphere. Temporal breakdowns of the SST-rainfall relationship in the southern African regions and the connection between the two rainfall zones are observed, for example during the 1950s. Our results confirm the complex interplay between large-scale teleconnections, regional SSTs and local effects in modulating multi-decadal southern African rainfall variability over long timescales.     

An evaluation of the CORDEX regional climate models in simulating future rainfall and extreme events over Mzingwane catchment,Zimbabwe

The study evaluated CORDEX RCMs’ ability to project future rainfall and extreme events in the Mzingwane catchment using an ensemble average of three RCMs (RCA4, REMO2009 and CRCM5). Model validation employed the statistical mean and Pearson correlation, while trends in projected rainfall and number of rainy days were computed using the Mann-Kendall trend test and the magnitudes of trends were determined by Sen’s slope estimator. Temporal and spatial distribution of future extreme dryness and wetness was established by using the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI). The results show that RCMs adequately represented annual and inter-annual rainfall variability and the ensemble average outperformed individual models. Trend results for the projected rainfall suggest a significant decreasing trend in future rainfall (2016–2100) for all stations at p < 0.05. In addition, a general decreasing trend in the number of rainy days is projected for future climate, although the significance and magnitude varied with station location. Model results suggest an increased occurrence of future extreme events, particularly towards the end of the century. The findings are important for developing proactive sustainable strategies for future climate change adaption and mitigation.     

Twentieth century precipitation trends in the upper Mzingwane sub-catchment of the northern Limpopo basin,Zimbabwe

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - This study evaluates precipitation trends in the upper Mzingwane sub-catchment (UMS) of Zimbabwe using ten World Meteorological Organization (WMO)’s...     

“A sky of brass and burning winds”: documentary evidence of rainfall variability in the Kingdom of Lesotho, Southern Africa, 1824–1900

Forecasting austral summer rainfall in southern Africa is hampered by a lack of long-term instrumental data. This paper extends the historical record for the subcontinent by presenting the first extensive 19th century climate history for Lesotho derived from documentary evidence. The data sources included unpublished English-, French- and Sesotho-language materials archived in Lesotho, South Africa and the UK. These included letters, journals and reports written by missionaries and colonial authorities, which were supplemented by newspapers, diaries, travelogues and other historical sources. Each source was read in chronological order, with any climate information recorded verbatim. Observations were classified into five categories (Very Wet, Relatively Wet, ‘Normal’, Relatively Dry, and Very Dry) based upon the predominant documented climate during each ‘rain-year’ (July to June). The latter portion of the chronology was then compared for accuracy against available instrumental precipitation records from Maseru (1886–1900). The results yield a semi-continuous record of climate information from 1824 to 1900. Data are restricted to lowland areas, but reveal drought episodes in 1833–34, 1841–42, 1845–47, 1848–51, 1858–63, 1865–69, 1876–80, 1882–85 and 1895–99 (the most severe drought years being 1850–51 and 1862–63) and wet periods or floods in 1835–36, 1838–41, 1847–48, 1854–56, 1863–65, 1873–75, 1880–81, 1885–86 and 1890–94. The rainfall chronology is compared with similar records for South Africa, Botswana and Zimbabwe. Linkages to possible forcing mechanisms, including ENSO teleconnections and historical coral-derived southwest Indian Ocean sea surface temperature variations are also explored.     

Annually re-forming miniature sorted patterned ground in the high Drakensberg,southern Africa

An analysis of miniature sorted circles and polygons provides the first detailed assessment of sorted patterned ground from a southern African alpine region. Pattern dimensions and particle sorting were determined from two sites in the high Drakensberg. Although the sorted patterns in the high Drakensberg are somewhat polygenetic in developmental origin, they are primarily frost-induced. Miniature sorted patterned ground below 3200 m a.s.l. on the Drakensberg plateau develops annually during the winter months and disintegrates towards summer. The development of miniature sorted patterns within five to six weeks demonstrates the effect of regular freeze–thaw cycles at higher altitudes in the Drakensberg. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Southern Hemisphere continental temperature responses to major volcanic eruptions since 1883 in CMIP5 models

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Although global and Northern Hemisphere temperature responses to volcanic forcing have been extensively investigated, knowledge of such responses over Southern...     

Surface texture analysis of southern Tuli Basin sediments: Implications for Limpopo Valley geoarchaeological contexts

The Hackthorne 1 site (southern Tuli Basin, South Africa) is situated on a sand-covered plateau adjacent to the Limpopo River Valley. Although the site is well known for its Stone Age archaeology, the past environmental contexts (particularly sedimentological/geomorphological) are not well known. We examine the Hackthorne sand grain surface textures, so as to provide some insight on the site specific and regional depositional history. Quartz sands at Hackthorne were collected from surface sands and from underlying weathered calcrete. SEM analysis was performed on sand grains, through which several mechanical and chemical microtextures were identified. Microtextures typical of fluvial environments were found only on grains derived from the plateau calcrete host sediment, whilst the surface sands exhibited only textures associated with aeolian environments. The results indicate that the calcrete host sediment is composed of alluvium, and that the surface sands mantling the Hackthorne Plateau are not deflated from the alluvial deposits in the Limpopo Valley, but may rather be derived from distant aeolian sources. The deposition of aeolian sands is consistent with OSL dates which place sand deposition, or remobilization, at 23 and 15 kya, periods in southern Africa associated with increased aridity.     

Documentary evidence of climate variability during cold seasons in Lesotho, southern Africa, 1833–1900

This study presents the first 19th century cold season climate chronology for the Kingdom of Lesotho in southern Africa. The chronology is constructed using a variety of documentary sources including letters, diaries, reports, monographs and newspaper articles obtained from southern African and British archives. Information relating to cold season weather phenomena during the austral autumn, winter and early spring months were recorded verbatim. Each of the cold seasons from 1833 to 1900 was then classified as “very severe”, “severe” or “normal/mild”, with a confidence rating ranging from low (1) to high (3) awarded against each annual classification. The accuracy of the document-derived chronology was verified against temperature data for Maseru for the period 1893–1900. Excellent correspondence of the document-derived chronology with the Maseru instrumental data and also with other global proxy temperature records for the 19th century is achieved. The results indicate 12 (18% of the total) very severe, 16 (23%) severe and 40 (59%) normal/mild cold seasons between 1833 and 1900. The overall trend is for more severe and snow-rich cold seasons during the early part of the study period (1833–1854) compared with the latter half of the 19th century (with the exception of the 1880s). A reduction in the duration of the frost season by over 20 days during the 19th century is also tentatively identified. Several severe to very severe cold seasons in Lesotho follow after major tropical and SH volcanic eruptions; such years are usually characterized by early frosts, and frequent and heavy snowfalls. The blocking of solar radiation and the enhanced northward displacement of polar fronts that are directly or indirectly associated with volcanic events, may account for many of the most severe Lesotho winters during the 19th century.     

Controls on basalt terrace formation in the eastern Lesotho highlands

The objective of this study is to ascertain the relative importance of lithological controls and geomorphological processes in the development of Drakensberg basalt terraces. Various hypotheses for terrace formation are considered, including geological controls, macroscale geomorphology, and climatic–geomorphological controls. The variations in strength and relative age differences for scarp surface exposures on two slopes of varying aspect are determined, so that a comparison can be made between various scarp outcrops and relative rates of weathering. Scarp outcrops were measured for their rock mass strength, rock surface roughness, and percentage lichen cover. The ethylene glycol test was performed on prepared rock samples to determine susceptibility to tensional breakup. A satellite image depicting the distribution of late-lying contemporary snow was used to assist in the construction of topo-climatic linkages with scarp terrace localities. Findings show that terraces are most common on southeast-facing aspects, and coincide with the major joint strike direction. Lithological factors are thus considered the primary control to such terrace development. It is suggested that a different set of geomorphological processes operates on various slope-altitudinal and slope-orientational positions at any given time.