The palaeolimnology of Lake Fidler, a meromictic lake in south-west Tasmania and the significance of recent human impact

Three meromictic lakes in the World Heritage Area of south-west Tasmania possess unusual microbiological communities. Their meromixis is maintained by periodic incursions of brackish water from the nearby Gordon River which, in its lower reaches, is a salt-wedge estuary. In 1977 the construction of a dam in the middle reaches of the river restricted penetration of the salt-wedge and meromixis rapidly declined in all three lakes. A palaeolimnological study was carried out on one of the lakes, Lake Fidler, firstly to determine the history of meromixis and its associated microbiological communities, and secondly to assess whether the recent and rapid decline of meromixis is inconsistent with natural rates of development of the Gordon River meromictic lakes. One part of this study included the analysis of the stratigraphy of fossil diatoms from a 17-metre sediment core dating back 8000 yrs. Detrended Correspondence Analysis and Analog Matching were used to compare diatom species assemblages in core samples with diatom samples from a reference dataset consisting of a selection of lake and river sites in the lower Gordon River valley. Five distinct stratigraphic zones were identified in the core. These zones indicated specific stages in the development of the Gordon River lakes from river backwaters to ectogenically-maintained meromictic lakes which will, finally, become terrestrialised by encroaching rainforest. The onset of a stratified water column was identified by the emergence of a dominant freshwater algal flora which suggested that the lake had developed a mixolimnion and become meromictic ca. 2070 ± 50 ¹⁴C yrs ago. In the context of this long history of meromixis, the rapid demise in meromictic stability following construction of the dam is judged to be inconsistent with natural rates of development. The palaeolimnological studies, of which this paper is one part, prompt recommendations for a management strategy to prevent the further decay of these meromictic lakes in the World Heritage Area.     

Structural variations in derivatives of the bacteriochlorophylls of Chlorobiaceae: impact of stratigraphic resolution on depth profiles as revealed by methanolysis

Bacteriochlorophylls c and d, recovered from two sedimentary sequences, were converted to bacteriophaeophorbide methyl esters by methanolysis and analysed by atmospheric pressure chemical ionisation liquid chromatography-multistage mass spectrometry (APCI LC-MSⁿ). The distributions in both settings, a moderately consolidated sediment from Kirisjes Pond, Antarctica, and in a finely laminated microbial mat from Les Salines de la Trinitat, Spain, show significant variations within a narrow depth interval. The overall bacteriophaeophorbide c to d ratios in the two sediments are different, as are the ratios of particular C-3¹ diastereoisomers, indicating distinct differences between the bacterial communities that contributed to each sediment. Furthermore, a shift towards more extensive alkylation in homologues within each sediment is consistent either with changing environmental conditions in the depositional environments, or development-related changes in the structure of the bacterial community, leading to increased competition for light or nutrients.     

Automated threshold selection methods for extreme wave analysis

The study of the extreme values of a variable such as wave height is very important in flood risk assessment and coastal design. Often values above a sufficiently large threshold can be modelled using the Generalized Pareto Distribution, the parameters of which are estimated using maximum likelihood. There are several popular empirical techniques for choosing a suitable threshold, but these require the subjective interpretation of plots by the user.In this paper we present a pragmatic automated, simple and computationally inexpensive threshold selection method based on the distribution of the difference of parameter estimates when the threshold is changed, and apply it to a published rainfall and a new wave height data set. We assess the effect of the uncertainty associated with our threshold selection technique on return level estimation by using the bootstrap procedure. We illustrate the effectiveness of our methodology by a simulation study and compare it with the approach used in the JOINSEA software. In addition, we present an extension that allows the threshold selected to depend on the value of a covariate such as the cosine of wave direction.     

Multi-scale variability of beach profiles at Duck: A wavelet analysis

Beach profiles have been observed to change over a range of spatial and temporal scales; however techniques for quantifying this variability have not been fully established. In this paper, a wavelet technique is introduced as a method to study the multi-scale variability of beach profiles. The beach profile data comprising a 22-year time series surveyed at the US Army Corps of Civil Engineers Field Research Facility (FRF) at Duck are analysed using the adapted maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform (AMODWT). The analysis successfully identifies strong local features in the variability of beach profiles in time and space separately that cannot be isolated by traditional statistical methods. The analysis of spatial wavelet variances provides a new means of investigating the depth of closure. Analysis of variances by temporal scales shows that the combined effects of several temporal scales with one or two dominant scales can be seen at particular points across profiles whilst the dominant temporal scales are different at different portions of the profiles. The method allows for the extremely nonstationary behaviour of beach profile to be analysed into separate frequency bands that can facilitate the interpretation of morphological changes in terms of physical processes.     

A morphological classification of e and SO galaxies in terms of equilibrium isopleths

A theory of galactic morphology results from the consideration of isoplethic surfaces in states of geometric equilibrium within the theory of general relativity. In the linearized case, one solves ?²ψ+ρ²ψ=0 on the surface of an oblate spheroid with unit semimajor axis and eccentricity ε. The surface defined by $$x^2 + y^2 + z^2 /(1 - \varepsilon ^2 ) = {\text{exp (}}\psi {\text{)}}$$ are then equilibrium isopleths. The resulting morphological system contains two continuous parameters (ε and the norm of ψ) and an integer-valued parametern. The system includes the ellipticals as special cases, and the various available profiles are given for a variety of values of the parameters. The forms are sufficiently varied as to represent NGC 3115, 128, 7332, and IC 3973. These forms cease to be enigmatic for they fit into an orderly sequence progressing out of the ellipticals and have equilibrium interpretations as previously obtained only for the ellipticals.     

Future wave climate over the west-European shelf seas

In this paper, we investigate changes in the wave climate of the west-European shelf seas under global warming scenarios. In particular, climate change wind fields corresponding to the present (control) time-slice 1961–2000 and the future (scenario) time-slice 2061–2100 are used to drive a wave generation model to produce equivalent control and scenario wave climate. Yearly and seasonal statistics of the scenario wave climates are compared individually to the corresponding control wave climate to identify relative changes of statistical significance between present and future extreme and prevailing wave heights. Using global, regional and linked global–regional wind forcing over a set of nested computational domains, this paper further demonstrates the sensitivity of the results to the resolution and coverage of the forcing. It suggests that the use of combined forcing from linked global and regional climate models of typical resolution and coverage is a good option for the investigation of relative wave changes in the region of interest of this study. Coarse resolution global forcing alone leads to very similar results over regions that are highly exposed to the Atlantic Ocean. In contrast, fine resolution regional forcing alone is shown to be insufficient for exploring wave climate changes over the western European waters because of its limited coverage. Results obtained with the combined global–regional wind forcing showed some consistency between scenarios. In general, it was shown that mean and extreme wave heights will increase in the future only in winter and only in the southwest of UK and west of France, north of about 44–45° N. Otherwise, wave heights are projected to decrease, especially in summer. Nevertheless, this decrease is dominated by local wind waves whilst swell is found to increase. Only in spring do both swell and local wind waves decrease in average height.     

Tuning a physically-based model of the air–sea gas transfer velocity

Air–sea gas transfer velocities are estimated for one year using a 1-D upper-ocean model (GOTM) and a modified version of the NOAA–COARE transfer velocity parameterization. Tuning parameters are evaluated with the aim of bringing the physically based NOAA–COARE parameterization in line with current estimates, based on simple wind-speed dependent models derived from bomb-radiocarbon inventories and deliberate tracer release experiments. We suggest that A = 1.3 and B = 1.0, for the sub-layer scaling parameter and the bubble mediated exchange, respectively, are consistent with the global average CO₂ transfer velocity k. Using these parameters and a simple 2nd order polynomial approximation, with respect to wind speed, we estimate a global annual average k for CO₂ of 16.4 ± 5.6 cm h^?1 when using global mean winds of 6.89 m s^?1 from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1 1954–2000. The tuned model can be used to predict the transfer velocity of any gas, with appropriate treatment of the dependence on molecular properties including the strong solubility dependence of bubble-mediated transfer. For example, an initial estimate of the global average transfer velocity of DMS (a relatively soluble gas) is only 11.9 cm h^?1 whilst for less soluble methane the estimate is 18.0 cm h^?1.     

Probabilistic modelling of long-term beach evolution near segmented shore-parallel breakwaters

This paper presents a new framework for probabilistic modelling of long-term beach evolution in the vicinity of detached breakwaters. The study focuses on the key physical processes contributing to beach variability over a range of spatial and temporal scales. Based on a one-line model, the framework is enhanced with sophisticated solutions for beach-wave-structure interaction, diffraction together with a treatment of varying tide level. The sediment transport rate is calibrated at regional and local levels using data from bespoke field campaigns and site-specific coefficients are proposed. Monte Carlo simulation is conducted for long-term shoreline simulation under a sequence of time varying sequence of waves, currents and tidal levels. The results of the Monte Carlo simulation give an insight into the statistical characteristics of beach behaviour within the defence system. In particular, regions within the scheme that are relatively stable and those that exhibit greater natural fluctuations are identified.     

Radial velocity variations of the pulsating subdwarf B star PG 1605+072

We present an analysis of high-speed spectroscopy of the pulsating subdwarf B star PG 1605+072. Periodic radial motions are detected at frequencies similar to those reported for photometric variations in the star, with amplitudes of up to 6 km s⁻¹. Differences between relative strengths for given frequency peaks for our velocity data and previously measured photometry are probably a result of shifting of power between modes over time. Small differences in the detected frequencies may also indicate mode-shifting. We report the detection of line-shape variations using the moments of the cross-correlation function profiles. It may be possible to use the moments to identify the pulsation modes of the star.