The effects of hazard zone information on judgements about earthquake damage

This study investigates the extent to which people's views on the causes and preventability of earthquake damage might be influenced by their degree of exposure to hazard as well as what information they have been given about the hazard. The results show that the provision of hazard zoning information influences judgements on preventability and causes of damage, but this effect depends on the degree of hazard faced by residents. In low hazard zones, information leads to the view that causes are manageable, whereas in high hazard zones information may induce a degree of fatalism. The use of public information in risk management needs to take into account the degree of risk faced by the recipients.     

Some observations and characteristics of lightning ground discharges in southern Ontario

Abstract

Lightning ground flash and stroke observations were made with a single‐station gated, wideband magnetic direction‐finding system with a nominal range of 180 km located in Southern Ontario during the May‐September lightning‐active seasons of 1982 and 1983. Information was recorded on the azimuth of arrival, time, amplitude, stroke multiplicity and order, and polarity. The local climatology and seasonal statistics of lightning are analysed and summarized, and compared with standard observations of thunderstorm days and hours. Regional daily flashing rates and extremes for periods of 5 to 60 min were found to have a good empirical relationship. About 15% of the flashes had multiple strokes, generally less than 10 but with as many as 14 strokes. About 8% of the flashes were positive discharges; 3% of these were multistroke with no more than 2 strokes.

The lightning activity exhibits well defined diurnal peaks in the afternoon and at night 1–3 h before sunrise. The time interval between strokes was found to have a lognormal distribution with modal and median values of 60 and 75 ms, respectively, and no significant dependence on the order of stroke. The stroke‐to‐stroke amplitude changes within the same flash show that subsequent stroke amplitudes are often greater than the first. Subsequent strokes follow many patterns of change, the most common being an amplitude oscillating with ascending stroke order. The multistroke flash duration median values rose from about 80 ms for 2‐stroke flashes to about 650 ms for 8‐stroke flashes.

Under certain assumptions of system detection efficiency and range limits a regional ground flash density of 1.62 and 2.44 km^?2 a^?1 was estimated for the two years.     

Back to the future: reflections and directions of South African marine bioinvasion research

Biological invasions continue to increase around the world, with impacts on many coastal marine systems. Here we review the South African marine invasion literature which, despite the field being relatively new, has grown to have significant presence in both the local and international arenas. Of the 79 papers reviewed, 70% focused on the establishment and spread of alien species, with modes of transport and introduction largely overlooked. An emphasis was also apparent towards field studies, in particular survey work, with few experimental studies. The overwhelming majority of papers focused on a single species, the Mediterranean mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis, reflecting the scale of this invasion and the tractable nature of rocky shores as study systems. With the exception of this one species, the impacts of marine alien species have rarely been quantified. We suggest that future research extends the taxonomic coverage of present work and develops a better understanding of the mechanisms of introduction, establishment and spread of marine alien species. Through an experimental approach, the drivers of altered ecological patterns and processes resulting from invasions should be addressed, providing insight into associated impacts. This approach will maintain the local applicability and international relevance of South African marine invasion research.     

Impacts of alien ‘ecosystem engineers’ overwhelm interannual and seasonal shifts in rocky-shore community composition on Marcus Island,South Africa

The South African coastline has been invaded by numerous alien species. Rare pre-invasion (1980) and post-invasion datasets (2001 and 2012) exist for Marcus Island, a small land-tied island in Saldanha Bay, South Africa. These snapshot datasets of the island’s intertidal invertebrate community were complemented with monitoring across seasons, from 2014 to 2016. Invertebrate communities were compared among the summers of 1980, 2001, 2012, 2014, 2015 and 2016 to assess interannual differences, while invertebrates and algae were monitored quarter-annually to assess seasonal changes. In addition, the population dynamics of the alien mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis were monitored. Differences in invertebrate communities between consecutive summers were significant but much smaller than changes induced by the arrival of alien species. Invertebrate and seaweed communities differed among years and shore zones but not among seasons, whereas species diversity differed among years, seasons and shore zones, with zones having the strongest influence. The invasion by M. galloprovincialis, and ensuing spatial and temporal variability in its recruitment, emerged as the most important factor influencing community composition, overshadowing interannual and seasonal changes. This work highlights that the impacts of alien species can be distinguished from natural variability by combining long-term monitoring with surveys at finer temporal scales. This is an important step in extending our understanding of the impacts of marine alien species.     

Boulders of MIS 5 age deposited by a tsunami on the coast of Otago, New Zealand

A series of elevated imbricated boulders were investigated on the Otago coastline, southeast New Zealand, through field surveying and optical luminescence dating. By using established hydrodynamic relationships of sediment transport the energy required to move the clasts was calculated and compared to the historic record of marine inundations of that coast. The boulders are platy in shape and are over 2 m long in some cases, and are sourced from a locally outcropping conglomerate unit which appears to be the only lithology on this section of coast that erodes to produce clasts of this size. It is estimated that the boulders were deposited by a tsunami between 2 and 3 m high during the latter part of Marine Isotope Stage 5. They therefore represent the first pre-Holocene tsunami deposit and one composed of large boulders described on the New Zealand coastline.     

赣南营前岩体的年代学、地球化学、Sr-Nd-Hf同位素组成及其地质意义

赣南营前岩体由早期似斑状花岗闪长岩和晚期细粒黑云母花岗岩组成,在前者中普遍发育暗色基性包体。SHRIMP锆石U-Pb测年显示似斑状花岗闪长岩为172.2±3.1Ma,细粒黑云母花岗岩为168±3Ma,包体为167.6±3.3Ma。所有的岩石均为钙碱性系列,稀土元素显示LREE富集,HREE亏损,Eu负异常并不明显的特征,Nb-Ta负异常显示壳源物质的特征。晚期细粒黑云母花岗岩、早期似斑状花岗闪长岩、暗色包体的(87Sr/86Sr)i和εNd(t)值分别为0.70885～0.70965、0.71058～1.46393、0.70788～0.70923和-6.38～-5.31、-6.51～-5.17、-5.47～-4.31;锆石εHf(t)值分别为-12.4～-5.7、-9.2～-4.2、-9.4～+0.1。结合岩相学、地球化学研究,初步认为营前岩体的两期花岗质岩石源于地壳重熔,地幔底侵导致地壳熔融形成营前岩体,基性岩浆加入到未冷却的酸性岩浆中形成了目前所见到的暗色包体。结合区域上的研究资料,认为中侏罗世期间,沿"十杭"断裂带及与其相平行的一些深断裂发生了板块的撕裂,这些缝合带是岩石圈相对薄弱的地带,有利于幔源物质底侵上升以及壳幔相互作用。     

A review of the assessments of the major fisheries resources in South Africa

The waters off South Africa's coastline boast a rich mix of commercially fished species. Quantitative assessments of these marine resources have developed from simple methods first applied in the 1970s, to models that encompass a wide range of methodologies. The more valuable resources have undergone regular assessments in recent decades, with frequencies closely related to the management approach employed for each fishery. Many of these assessments form the operating models used to simulation-test candidate management procedures. This paper provides a comprehensive review of the assessments of 11 of the most important fisheries resources in South Africa. Some assessments use simple biomass dynamics models, whereas others are a hybrid of age- and length-based models, each designed to model the specific characteristics of the resource and fishery concerned. Many of the assessments have been disaggregated by species/stock and/or area as related multispecies/stock/ distribution hypotheses have arisen. This paper explores the similarities and differences in the data available and the methods applied. The review indicates that, whereas the status of three of these resources cannot be estimated reliably at present, the status of six resources is considered to be reasonable to good, whereas that of abalone Haliotis midae and West Coast rock lobster Jasus lalandii remains poor.     

Recent progress in the operational forecasting of summer severe weather

Abstract

Summer severe weather (SSW) can strike suddenly and unexpectedly with disastrous consequences for human activity. Considerable progress has been made in the past ten years in the operational forecasting of SSW. Traditionally, SSW was defined to consist of tornadoes, strong winds, hail, lightning and heavy rain. Hazardous types of strong winds have recently been expanded to include microbursts, macrobursts and surfacing rear inflow jet damage behind mesoscale convective systems. Doppler radar was used to relate surface damage to the appropriate atmospheric phenomena, first diagnostically and then prognostically. This improvement in classification has fedback to and improved the forecast process. Concurrent progress has been made in the use of synoptic observations. The concept of helical wind profiles and improved knowledge of the role of dry mid‐level air has improved the forecasting of tornadoes and strong gusty winds. Moisture flux convergence, derived from surface measurements, shows great promise in identifying areas of storm initiation. Satellite imagery has been used to identify dynamical atmospheric boundaries. Numerical modelling of the interaction of environmental wind profiles and individual thunderstorms has greatly contributed to the understanding of SSW. Studies of spatial and temporal patterns of lightning, both specific cases and climatology, contribute to the forecasting of severe storms. Polarization radar results have shown progress in separating the signals of hail from those of rain and in the improved measurement of heavy rainfalls. Radar observation of clear air boundaries and their interactions show potential for the forecasting of thunderstorm initiation. Though not traditionally considered part of SSW, hurricanes that evolve into extra‐tropical storms share many of the same hazardous features. The progress in computing, communications and display technologies has also made substantial contributions to operational forecasting and to the dissemination of weather warnings.     

DIRECT LOCATION OF OIL AND GAS BY THE SEISMIC REFLECTION METHOD*

The seismic velocity of sedimentary rocks is determined by the porosity, the velocity in the matrix and that in the fluid. The last two are known experimentally. The velocity can be measured from the surface. By applying the time average equation we can find the porosity. If the only difference at two points is the nature of the fluid in one layer, the ratio of the reflectivities of the layer at these points determines the nature of the fluid; this ratio is equal to the ratio of the amplitudes at these points. The size of the reservoir can then be found. The method can be applied to both oil exploration and production. It is more accurate in the latter case because more information is available than in the former case. The method is also more effective in developing discovered fields than the conventional method of relying only on the geological structural configurations.