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第16届亚运会帆船赛区强风概率推算 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
利用广东省汕尾甲子屿海岛测风站2008年11月逐时风速资料,分析了第11届亚运会帆船赛区11月份的风况特征,并根据汕尾气象站同时期的风速资料,通过相关性检验建立了大风样本的比值关系。根据汕尾气象站1966~2009年的历年11月份测风资料,构建了最大风速极值序列。利用极值I型概率分布函数推算了汕尾气象站11月份的各等级强风出现概率,再利用相关比值法和风速随高度变化幂指数律将结果推算至帆船赛区10 m高度。结果表明:帆船赛区11月份的主导风向为ENE,其次为NNE,静风频率为0;海面10 m高度出现帆船比赛中断风速的概率约为0.033(30年一遇)。 相似文献
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风电场风资源测量与计算的精度控制 总被引:3,自引:1,他引:2
根据多个复杂地形风电场观测操作实践和大量观测数据的计算分析,提出了对观测数据和计算质量精度控制的主要措施,包括:复杂地形测风站布设的5个原则,仪器的合理选型和设置;对由于测风仪固有的系统误差和缺测数据的插补订正可能引起的计算误差进行了定量估算,通过对大量实测数据的对比计算显示:①目前普遍采用的进口风速计的相对偏差在1.6%~5.25%之间,由此可导致轮毂高度附近的年平均风功率密度误差在5%以上,最大达13.8%;②在季风气候区、复杂地形和风的年变率较大的地区,进行缺测数据插补订正时,应选取同季或同一主导风向的数据作为插补订正的基础数据,否则可能导致其平均风功率密度相对误差达20%~50%. 相似文献
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Using the composite field observational data collected in the area south of the Nanling Mts. and numerical modeling, the seasonal features of dense fog and visibility, fog drop spectrum and physical concept of fog forming have been analyzed. The occurring frequency of low visibility(≤200 m) is very high with a mean of 24.7%, a maximum of 41.8% from the end of autumn to winter and next spring. The fog processes that occur in the area south of the Nanling Mts. in spring and winter result from the interactions of complicated micro-physical processes, the local terrain, water vapor transportation and the influencing weather system. The fog processes are arisen from advection or windward slope, which is much different from the radiation fog. Cooling condensation due to the air lifted by the local mountain plays an important role in fog formation. Windward slope of the mountain is favorable to the fog formation. Dense fog can occur at lower altitudes in the windward slope of mountain, resulting in the lower visibility. The fog is mainly of small-drop spectrum with smaller number-density than that of urban fog, and its drop spectrum has descending trend in the section of smaller diameter. The inverse relationship between fog water content and visibility is the best among several relationships of micro-variables. In addition to micro-physical processes of fog body itself, the motion of irregular climbing and crossing over hillside while the fog body is being transported by the wind are also important reasons for the fluctuation of micro-physical parameters such as fog water content. 相似文献
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登陆台风近地层湍流特征观测分析 总被引:15,自引:1,他引:15
在对多个登陆台风实地观测的基础上,选取出较有代表性的实验观测个例:“黄蜂”、“杜鹃”和“黑格比”3个登陆台风,分析探讨在登陆台风的中心、靠近中心位置的强烈影响区域和台风外围环流影响地区近地层湍流特征,以期对登陆台风的边界层湍流过程有所认识。观测资料分析显示,在登陆台风的中心及其强烈影响的区域:(1)风速和湍流强度均有强烈的变化;(2)水平湍流积分尺度明显增大,越靠近中心位置,增大越明显,而垂直方向没有明显变化;(3)在湍流谱的低频和高频区,湍能均可增大1~2个量级,其中垂直方向湍能增大的幅度略小于水平方向;(4)湍谱在惯性子区u,v,w3个方向的分布均不满足-5/3次方律,存在较大偏移,而在台风外围环流影响区和无台风影响时,则无上述的4个特征。 相似文献