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利用百分位阈值方法定义极端事件,从极端事件再现时间的角度,研究了极端事件发生时间间隔的长程相关性.发现若原时间序列具有长程相关性,则它的极端事件再现时间序列也具有长程相关性;计算表明两者的标度指数α相当接近,这一特性与随机产生的再现时间序列有着本质的差别,再现时间序列的长程相关性是由原序列的长程相关性决定的.具有长程相关性的时间序列再现时间的概率分布明显不同于随机序列,其小值再现时间的概率较大,反映出极端事件的群发现象.本文根据这一特征定义了再现时间的群发性指数,发现时间序列的长程相关性是导 相似文献
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ENSO事件期间热带印度洋和太平洋地区大尺度海气相互作用联系的研究 总被引:3,自引:1,他引:3
利用大气环流三维分解方法研究了1979—2008年ENSO事件期间热带印度洋和太平洋地区海气相互作用的机制。研究表明ENSO事件期间存在明显的三维"齿轮式"耦合特征;在ENSO事件盛期,与NCEP再分析资料的垂直运动相比,大气环流三维分解方法揭示的东印度洋-西太平洋地区的下沉运动更强,范围更宽。大气环流三维分解方法把垂直速度分解为纬向分量和经向分量两部分,纬向分量表现为很强的下沉运动,而经向分量表现为上升运动,垂直速度的纬向分量和经向分量相互抵消了一部分,综合的结果表现为很强的下沉运动。在热带地区,垂直速度ω*的纬向分量ωW要大于其经向分量ωH,ωW反映了ω*的主要特征;在分析垂直运动方面,与NCEP再分析资料中的垂直速度相比,大气环流三维分解方法具有一定的优点。 相似文献
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By using the low-spectral model simplified from quasi-geostrophic approximation two-levelmodel,we obtained the result that the equivalent barotropic state is an equilibrium state of theatmosphere in that model,and discussed the conditions needed for existing the Rossby wavepossessing the equivalent barotropic structure.And then we derived the oscillation equation reflectingthe phase change of Rossby wave between higher and lower levels from the basic state of equivalentbarotropic stationary Rossby wave,indicating the relations between the change of difference of phaseat higher and lower levels and the disturbance of vertical shear,the amplitude disturbance of the partof waves of stream function and thermal wind stream function on the average level (A′ and B′).It isconcluded that the inter-transformation exists between Rossby waves possessing the equivalentbarotropic and baroclinic structure. 相似文献
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分析了川渝地区夏季高温日数时间演变特征及其异常年份的环流形势.结果表明,川渝地区高温日数在20世纪50年代到70年代总体偏多,1979年是由多到少的突变年,80年代高温日数明显偏少,90年代以后又有增多趋势.川渝地区夏季高温酷暑年和凉夏年的环流形势存在着明显的差异.酷暑年,我国南海北部对流增强,使得西太平洋副热带高压偏北,乌拉尔山和鄂霍次克海地区无持续性阻塞高压,同时东亚大槽变浅,青藏高原上升运动减弱.850 hPa距平风场上.川渝地区以南被东北距平风控制,以北被正南距平风控制,这种环流形势配合有利于川渝地区夏季高温干旱的发生、发展.前期春季OLR场变化特征可为川渝地区夏季高温干旱的预测提供一定的参考依据. 相似文献
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By utilizing a 3-D atmospheric circulation resolving method, the authors studied the air-sea
interactive linkages between the tropical Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean in 1979-2008 El
Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. Their findings showed that evident 3-D gear-coupling
characteristics existed in the 1979-2008 ENSO events. Their resolving analyses also suggested that the
general circulation showed stronger and wider sinking motions over the eastern Indian Ocean-western
Pacific during the mature phase of 1979-2008 ENSO events, compared with the vertical velocities from the
U.S. National Centers for Enviornmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data. With their 3-D analysis
method, the vertical velocity was resolved by two components, i.e. zonal and meridional components. It
was found that the zonal component of the vertical velocities showed a strong sinking motion while the
meridional components showed an upward motion during the prevailing phases of the ENSO events. In the
tropics, the zonal component of the vertical velocities was found greater than the meridional component,
reflecting the dominant characteristics of the vertical velocity, and the overall outcomes showed a strong
sinking motion, although the two components also partially offset each other in the processes. Compared
with the vertical velocities from NCEP reanalysis, the vertical motions calculated with the 3-D resolving
analysis method demonstrate some advantages. 相似文献