基于PSR-WSVM模型的边坡位移预测

为建立高精度的边坡位移预测模型，采用相空间重构（PSR）将边坡位移时间序列数据转换为多维数据，同时构造小波核函数改进的支持向量机模型，建立PSR-WSVM模型并应用于边坡位移预测。将PSR-WSVM模型预测结果与传统支持向量机（SVM）模型、小波支持向量机（WSVM）模型和基于相空间重构的支持向量机（PSR-SVM）模型预测结果进行对比，通过平均绝对误差（MAE）、平均绝对误差百分比（MAPE）和均方根误差（RMSE）3个精度评价指标验证PSR-WSVM模型的可行性。工程实例结果表明，PSR-WSVM模型预测结果的3个精度评价指标都优于另外3种模型，边坡位移预测的精度明显提升。     

The relationship between the semi-major axis, mass index and age of the Leonid meteor shower

Owing to sublimation of ice, comet nuclei eject dust particles when they are near to the sun. Those particles assume velocities and then vary their orbits to ones similar to that of the comet. The most notable difference between the orbit of the parent comet and those of the particles is their semi-major axes. This difference (Δ a ) has been widely used in modern meteor shower predictions. Observational evidence of the distribution showed that it is a function of Δ a , and the age of the dust trail. However, the relation is not well known. In this paper, a simplified relation between Δ a , the mass index ( s ) and the age of the dust trail is presented, taking the instance of a recent Leonid meteor shower.     

Optimal Filtering Algorithm for Stochastic 2-D FMM Ⅱ with Multiplicative Noise

1　Introduction　Inrecentyearstherehasbeengrowingresearchin terestinthetwo dimensional (2 D )systemtheory .The 2 Dsystemsmayfindapplicationsinareassuchasmarineseismicdataprocessingandimageprocessing .Althoughmoreandmorevaluableresultshavebeengained ,mos…     

SPECULATION ON DEVELOPING TOUR RESOURCES OF THE TOURNAMENT ATHLETICS IN HARBIN CITY

The exploitation and utilization of the tour resources of tournament athletics, including skiling, boat sail-ing, archery, ice engraving, snow engraving, has become a new trend of the development of Chinese tourism. Due tothe unique cold climate and superior geographic location, Harbin is a promising city for developing tour resources of tourna-ment athletics. Based on the analysis of the superiority and peculiarity of Harbin, the speculation on development of tour resources of tournament athletics in Harbin is proposed as follows : 1 ) Harbin should develop its special tour resources of tournament athletics associated with needs of market; 2) Harbin should take the advantages of rich resources and devel-op ice and snow entertainment in winter and travel for sight-seeing and spending summer;, 3) the adjustment of the layoutof ice and snow resources should be based on the idea of taking Harbin as the center and all-side opening at the largescale in the way of radiation; 4) tourism should be developed by the combined efforts of various departments to make feasi-ble plan, and the organizers should pay much attention to ensuring the safetv of tourists.     

黄土斜坡稳定性的模糊信息分析法

本文基于黄土斜坡稳定性的实际资料,利用信息分配、模糊一二级近似推论及信息集中等原因建立了一套黄土斜坡稳定性的评价方法。用这套方法对一些黄土斜坡(非母体)稳定性进行了验证,其结果与实际情况一致。本方法已应用于兰州市滑坡防灾规划和皋兰山三台阁北侧几个滑坡及斜坡稳定性的研究中,效果良好。     

鱼卡煤田大煤沟组高分辨率层序地层特征及聚煤规律

利用高分辨率层序地层学理论和技术方法,综合地震、测井、岩芯和煤质资料对柴达木盆地北缘鱼卡煤田中下侏罗统大煤沟组地层河湖三角洲沉积体系进行高分辨率层序地层学分析,从中识别出短期、中期、长期3个级别的基准面旋回层序,划分出向上"变深"非对称型、向上"变浅"非对称型及对称型3种短期基准面旋回基本结构类型。依据等时地层对比法则进行不同级次基准面旋回层序的联井对比,建立了大煤沟组的等时地层格架,在等时地层格架内进行了煤层对比,并在等时地层格架内分析了聚煤规律。     

火试金法测定铜精矿中金含量结果的不确定度评定

对火试金法测定铜精矿中金含量的结果进行不确定度评定。分析了铜精矿样品称量、铜精矿样品的不均匀性和配料处理,以及金粒称量等因素对金含量测量结果不确定度的影响,并得出火试金法测量铜精矿中金含量的扩展不确定度。     

冈底斯驱龙斑岩铜钼矿床的岩浆侵位中心和矿化中心:破裂裂隙和矿化强度证据

驱龙斑岩铜钼矿床是迄今为止在西藏冈底斯成矿带上发现的规模最大的铜矿床.文章根据对驱龙矿区各类岩石破裂裂隙的野外实测数据,结合矿区已有钻孔品位资料,分别绘制了矿区地表破裂裂隙等值线图、走向投影图及梅花图、钻孔5 000 m海拔标高水平切面Cu、Mo品位等值线图.研究结果表明,驱龙斑岩铜钼矿床的岩石中破裂裂隙相当发育,连成一片,没有明显的多个高值中心,空间上破裂裂隙呈放射状产出;5 000 m海拔标高水平切面显示Cu、Mo矿化较强、较均匀,矿化呈面状,为典型的由单一斑岩体侵位造成的中心式矿化特征.据破裂裂隙和Cu、Mo矿化空间分布,可确定驱龙矿区岩浆中心和矿化中心均位于钻孔405、1205、801、809所围成的矩形区域附近.     

尖吻兽（Akidolestes）的齿列和头后骨骼

尖吻兽（Akidolestes）是新近在中国辽宁省下白垩统义县组地层发现的对齿兽动物,保存了非常完整的头后骨骼。其齿列特征表明它属于鼹兽超科（Spalacotheroidea）中的鼹兽科动物（Spalacotheriidae）,该科是以臼齿齿尖呈对称三角形排列、上下臼齿反转咬合为特征的单系类群,是现生兽类（有袋类和有胎盘类）的近亲,拥有许多兽类骨骼的原始特征。尖吻兽区别于张和兽科的特征是具有更宽大的下颌冠状突和臼齿齿尖呈更小的锐角排列。对尖吻兽的骨骼解剖学和比较形态特征的研究,表明尖吻兽演化模式是一种     

塔里木西部地区古生代断裂活动的方式和机制

基于系统的地震剖面解释及其与塔中地区的对比,本文探讨了塔里木西部地区古生代断裂活动的方式和机制。玛东断裂带是一条宽阔的北东向盖层滑脱型褶皱冲断带,前展式向东南扩展,冲断作用发生在奥陶纪末。巴东断裂(吐土休克Ⅱ号断裂)为北西向基底卷入型冲断带,奥陶纪末和中二叠世末发生冲断。巴西断裂和塔参2井南断裂是海西期的正断层。塔里木古板块古生代的发育受邻侧的造山带演化制约,近东西向和北东向断裂奥陶纪末的冲断是继承基底构造发育的。塔中地区的近北西向断裂是晚寒武世的新生断裂,加里东运动可分为两幕:奥陶纪末的冲断(艾比湖运动)和晚志留-中泥盆世的冲断-走滑,后者向西明显减弱。塔里木西部的部分北西向断裂(如康西断裂)可归入塔中北西向断裂系。北东向的玛东断裂带是其西的向北(东)冲断的吐木休克断裂带与其东的向南偏东冲断的塔中8-1井——塔中5井断裂带之间的调节断层。