Simulations of a Line W-based observing system for the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

In a series of observing system simulations, we test whether the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) can be observed based on the existing Line W deep western boundary array. We simulate a Line W array, which is extended to the surface and to the east to cover the basin to the Bermuda Rise. In the analyzed ocean circulation model ORCA025, such an extended Line W array captures the main characteristics of the western boundary current. Potential trans-basin observing systems for the AMOC are tested by combining the extended Line W array with a mid-ocean transport estimate obtained from thermal wind “measurements” and Ekman transport to the total AMOC (similarly to Hirschi et al., Geophys Res Lett 30(7):1413, 2003). First, we close Line W zonally supplementing the western boundary array with several “moorings” in the basin (Line W-32°N). Second, we supplement the western boundary array with a combination of observations at Bermuda and the eastern part of the RAPID array at 26°N (Line W-B-RAPID). Both, a small number of density profiles across the basin and also only sampling the eastern and western boundary, capture the variability of the AMOC at Line W-32°N and Line W-B-RAPID. In the analyzed model, the AMOC variability at both Line W-32°N and Line W-B-RAPID is dominated by the western boundary current variability. Away from the western boundary, the mid-ocean transport (east of Bermuda) shows no significant relation between the two Line W-based sections and 26°N. Hence, a Line W-based AMOC estimate could yield an estimate of the meridional transport that is independent of the 26°N RAPID estimate. The model-based observing system simulations presented here provide support for the use of Line W as a cornerstone for a trans-basin AMOC observing system.     

Detecting potential changes in the meridional overturning circulation at 26˚N in the Atlantic

We analyze the ability of an oceanic monitoring array to detect potential changes in the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC). The observing array is ‘deployed’ into a numerical model (ECHAM5/MPI-OM), and simulates the measurements of density and wind stress at 26^°N in the Atlantic. The simulated array mimics the continuous monitoring system deployed in the framework of the UK Rapid Climate Change program. We analyze a set of three realizations of a climate change scenario (IPCC A1B), in which – within the considered time-horizon of 200 years – the MOC weakens, but does not collapse. For the detection analysis, we assume that the natural variability of the MOC is known from an independent source, the control run. Our detection approach accounts for the effects of observation errors, infrequent observations, autocorrelated internal variability, and uncertainty in the initial conditions. Continuous observation with the simulated array for approximately 60 years yields a statistically significant (p < 0.05) detection with 95 percent reliability assuming a random observation error of 1 Sv (1 Sv = 10⁶ m³ s^?1). Observing continuously with an observation error of 3 Sv yields a detection time of about 90 years (with 95 percent reliability). Repeated hydrographic transects every 5 years/ 20 years result in a detection time of about 90 years/120 years, with 95 percent reliability and an assumed observation error of 3 Sv. An observation error of 3 Sv (one standard deviation) is a plausible estimate of the observation error associated with the RAPID UK 26^°N array.     

Used Motor Oil as a Source of MTBE, TAME, and BTEX to Ground Water

Methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE), the widely used gasoline oxygenate, has been identified as a common ground water contaminant, and BTEX compounds (benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylenes) have long been associated with gasoline spills. Because not all instances of ground water contamination by MTBE and BTEX can be attributed to spills or leaking storage tanks, other potential sources need to be considered. In this study, used motor oil was investigated as a potential source of these contaminants. MTBE in oil was measured directly by methanol extraction and gas chromatography using a flame ionization detector (GC/FID). Water was equilibrated with oil samples and analyzed for MTBE, BTEX, and the oxygenate tert-amyl methyl ether (TAME) by purge- and-trap concentration followed by GC/FID analysis. Raoult's law was used to calculate oil-phase concentrations of MTBE, BTEX, and TAME from aqueous-phase concentrations. MTBE, TAME, and BTEX were not detected in any of five new motor oil samples, whereas these compounds were found at significant concentrations in all six samples of the used motor oil tested for MTBE and all four samples tested for TAME and BTEX. MTBE concentrations in used motor oil were on the order of 100 mg/L. TAME concentrations ranged from 2.2 to 87 mg/L. Concentrations of benzene were 29 to 66 mg/L, but those of other BTEX compounds were higher, typically 500 to 2000 mg/L.     

Evaluation of volatilization as a natural attenuation pathway for MTBE

Volatilization and diffusion through the unsaturated zone can be an important pathway for natural attenuation remediation of methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) at gasoline spill sites. The significance of this pathway depends primarily on the distribution of immiscible product within the unsaturated zone and the relative magnitude of aqueous-phase advection (ground water recharge) to gaseous-phase diffusion. At a gasoline spill site in Laurel Bay, South Carolina, rates of MTBE volatilization from ground water downgradient from the source are estimated by analyzing the distribution of MTBE in the unsaturated zone above a solute plume. Volatilization rates of MTBE from ground water determined by transport modeling ranged from 0.0020 to 0.0042 g m(-2)/year, depending on the assumed rate of ground water recharge. Although diffusive conditions at the Laurel Bay site are favorable for volatilization, mass loss of MTBE is insignificant over the length (230 m) of the solute plume. Based on this analysis, significant volatilization of MTBE from ground water downgradient from source areas at other sites is not likely. In contrast, model results indicate that volatilization coupled with diffusion to the atmosphere could be a significant mass loss pathway for MTBE in source areas where residual product resides above the capillary zone. Although not documented, mass loss of MTBE at the Laurel Bay site due to volatilization and diffusion to the atmosphere are predicted to be two to three times greater than mass loading of MTBE to ground water due to dissolution and recharge. This result would imply that volatilization in the source zone may be the critical natural attenuation pathway for MTBE at gasoline spill sites, especially when considering capillary zone limitations on volatilization of MTBE from ground water and the relative recalcitrance of MTBE to biodegradation.