Late Holocene climates of the Near East deduced from Dead Sea level variations and modern regional winter rainfall

The Dead Sea is a terminal lake of one of the largest hydrological systems in the Levant and may thus be viewed as a large rain gauge for the region. Variations of its level are indicative of the climate variations in the region. Here, we present the decadal- to centennial-resolution Holocene lake-level curve of the Dead Sea. Then we determine the regional hydroclimatology that affected level variations. To achieve this goal we compare modern natural lake-level variations and instrumental rainfall records and quantify the hydrology relative to lake-level rise, fall, or stability. To quantify that relationship under natural conditions, rainfall data pre-dating the artificial Dead Sea level drop since the 1960s are used. In this respect, Jerusalem station offers the longest uninterrupted pre-1960s rainfall record and Jerusalem rains serve as an adequate proxy for the Dead Sea headwaters rainfall. Principal component analysis indicates that temporal variations of annual precipitation in all stations in Israel north of the current 200 mm yr⁻¹ average isohyet during 1940–1990 are largely synchronous and in phase (70% of the total variance explained by PC1). This station also represents well northern Jordan and the area all the way to Beirut, Lebanon, especially during extreme drought and wet spells. We (a) determine the modern, and propose the past regional hydrology and Eastern Mediterranean (EM) climatology that affected the severity and length of droughts/wet spells associated with multiyear episodes of Dead Sea level falls/rises and (b) determine that EM cyclone tracks were different in average number and latitude in wet and dry years in Jerusalem. The mean composite sea level pressure and 500-mb height anomalies indicate that the potential causes for wet and dry episodes span the entire EM and are rooted in the larger-scale northern hemisphere atmospheric circulation. We also identified remarkably close association (within radiocarbon resolution) between climatic changes in the Levant, reflected by level changes, and culture shifts in this region.     

Conservation tillage and input use

 There continues to be a question as to the overall effectiveness of conservation tillage practices in reducing the impact of agricultural production on the environment. While it is generally recognized that water runoff and soil erosion will decline further, as tillage and mulch tillage systems are not used more extensively on cropland, what will happen to pesticide and fertilizer use remains uncertain. To gain some insight into this, the conservation tillage adoption decision is modelled. On the assumption that the decision to adopt conservation tillage is a two-step procedure, the first decision is whether or not to adopt a conservation tillage production system and the second concerns the extent to which conservation tillage should be used – appropriate models of the Cragg and Heckman (dominance) type are estimated. Based on farm-level data on corn production in the United States for 1987, the profile of a farm on which conservation tillage was adopted is that the cropland had above-average slope and experienced above-average rainfall, the farm was a cash grain enterprise, and it had an above-average expenditure on pesticides and a below-average expenditure on fuel and custom pesticide applications. Additionally, for a farm adopting a no-tillage production practice, an above-average expenditure was made on fertilizer. Received: 18 September 1995 · Accepted: 6 December 1995     

Electron depletion in the wake of ionospheric spacecraft—A comparison between results from Langmuir probes and antennas

In situ observations of the electron depletion in the wakes of satellites and rockets in the ionosphere using Langmuir type probes and antennas are analyzed and compared. The quantitative degree of agreement between the results is demonstrated and discussed. One consequence is an improved interpretation of results previously presented for the OGO II Satellite wake.     

The impact of the nitrogen carryover effect on economic activity and the environment

 The economic and environmental consequences of soil nitrogen tests can have significant impacts on agricultural production. Some of these are explored here. The pre-side-dress soil N-test is evaluated for a hypothetical farmer growing corn at the ARS Sustainable Agriculture Demonstration Farm site in southern Maryland. For a farmer not currently using a soil N-test, adoption of this technology can lead to the enhancement of net farm income and the reduction in nitrogen loss to the environment. This will transpire only if the farmer is currently underestimating nitrogen carryover by more than 25% or applying nitrogen fertilizer based solely on an expected plateau-yield goal. Received: 13 February 1997 · Accepted: 13 May 1997     

Comparison of theory and in situ observations for electron and ion distributions in the near wake of the explorer 31 and AE-C satellites

Measurements of electron density, plasma potential, and mean ion mass from the Explorer 31 satellite and measurements of ion current, plasma potential, and ion composition from the Atmosphere Explorer C (AE-C) satellite were used in a comparative study with theory regarding the charged particle distribution in the near wake of an ionospheric satellite. The theoretical wake model of Parker (1976) has been used in the study. It is shown that theory and experiment agree fairly well in the angle-of-attack range between 90 and 135°. In that angular range even the neutral approximation (which treats ions as if they were neutral particles thus ignoring the influence of the electric field) gives fair agreement with the measurements. In the maximum rarefaction zone (145 < θ < 180°), however, the theoretical model overestimates the measured ion depletion (AE-C measurements) by several orders of magnitude. A similar conclusion is drawn from the comparison between theory and the Explorer 31 electron measurements where the theory also significantly overestimates the electron depletion. The study indicates that the discrepancies are mainly due to the use of a steady-state theory and of a single ion equation (using a mean ion mass). It is recommended that improved agreement between theory and experiment be obtained by the use of the timedependent Vlasov-Poisson equations with separate equations for the various ion species.     

The origin and mechanisms of salinization of the lower Jordan river

The chemical and isotopic (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr, δ¹¹B, δ³⁴S_sulfate, δ¹⁸O_water, δ¹⁵N_nitrate) compositions of water from the Lower Jordan River and its major tributaries between the Sea of Galilee and the Dead Sea were determined in order to reveal the origin of the salinity of the Jordan River. We identified three separate hydrological zones along the flow of the river:

(1)

A northern section (20 km downstream of its source) where the base flow composed of diverted saline and wastewaters is modified due to discharge of shallow sulfate-rich groundwater, characterized by low ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr (0.7072), δ³⁴S_sulfate (−2‰), high δ¹¹B (∼36‰), δ¹⁵N_nitrate (∼15‰) and high δ¹⁸O_water (−2 to-3‰) values. The shallow groundwater is derived from agricultural drainage water mixed with natural saline groundwater and discharges to both the Jordan and Yarmouk rivers. The contribution of the groundwater component in the Jordan River flow, deduced from mixing relationships of solutes and strontium isotopes, varies from 20 to 50% of the total flow.

(2)

A central zone (20-50 km downstream from its source) where salt variations are minimal and the rise of ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and SO₄/Cl ratios reflects predominance of eastern surface water flows.

(3)

A southern section (50-100 km downstream of its source) where the total dissolved solids of the Jordan River increase, particularly during the spring (70-80 km) and summer (80-100 km) to values as high as 11.1 g/L. Variations in the chemical and isotopic compositions of river water along the southern section suggest that the Zarqa River (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr∼0.70865; δ¹¹B∼25‰) has a negligible affect on the Jordan River. Instead, the river quality is influenced primarily by groundwater discharge composed of sulfate-rich saline groundwater (Cl^-=31-180 mM; SO₄/Cl∼0.2-0.5; Br/Cl∼2-3×10^-3; ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr∼0.70805; δ¹¹B∼30‰; δ¹⁵N_nitrate ∼17‰, δ³⁴S_sulfate=4-10‰), and Ca-chloride Rift valley brines (Cl^-=846-1500 mM; Br/Cl∼6-8×10^-3; ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr∼0.7080; δ¹¹B>40‰; δ³⁴S_sulfate=4-10‰). Mixing calculations indicate that the groundwater discharged to the river is composed of varying proportions of brines and sulfate-rich saline groundwater. Solute mass balance calculations point to a ∼10% contribution of saline groundwater (Cl⁻=282 to 564 mM) to the river. A high nitrate level (up to 2.5 mM) in the groundwater suggests that drainage of wastewater derived irrigation water is an important source for the groundwater. This irrigation water appears to leach Pleistocene sediments of the Jordan Valley resulting in elevated sulfate contents and altered strontium and boron isotopic compositions of the groundwater that in turn impacts the water quality of the lower Jordan River.

     

The impact of incorrectly estimating factor productivity in agriculture on the environment and human health

 This paper explores the implications of a misspecification of the production function on the use of factor inputs in the context of the adoption of an alternative production practice (a technological innovation) designed to mitigate the impact of agricultural production on human health and the environment. It is demonstrated that if the level of the use of some inputs is considered rather than their consumptive use (i.e., the actual amount used by a plant), the productivity of the input is inaccurately measured. It is also demonstrated that an aggregate production function approach can lead to overestimation of the value of the marginal product of an input due to the frequently implicit assumptions that the output supply, output demand, and fertilizer demand are infinitely price elastic. The implications of the results are important for determining the optimal use of inputs such as fertilizer and pesticides which have known adverse impacts on the environment and human health. Received: 22 November 1996 · Accepted: 4 May 1998     

Low Visibility Formation and Forecasting on the Northern Coast of Brazil

Visibility analysis and forecast at the Maceio International Airport in the Brazilian Northeast (NEB) was the principal goal of this investigation. Surface meteorological data of the Maceio International Airport were used for low visibility frequency study. Low visibility in NEB was provoked more frequently by light fog (LF) formation (1,098 or 92 h month^?1 on average). Haze and fog were very rare (81 h and one event per year, respectively on average). Light fog with a visibility less than 2 km usually was detected together with rain or drizzle. Low visibility was observed more frequently at night and during the rainy season. Applications of the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model for light fog forecast were tested. Thermodynamic processes were studied by vertical profile, elaborated by: (1) National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data for Maceio (because of some radiosonde absence) and (2) forecast vertical temperature and humidity profiles were produced, using Air Parcels Trajectories of the HYSPLIT model at the pattern levels. The synoptic situations before and during low visibility phenomena were analyzed using different products of NCEP reanalysis, the high resolution (10 km) ETA model and infrared satellite images. Wave disturbance in the trade winds field, localized on the northwest periphery of the South Atlantic subtropical High, usually accompanied the phenomena. A humidity advection, weak ascendant movement and thermal inversion absence at the low levels were created by these waves. The middle level’s descendent movement provoked the humidity accumulation at levels below. Satisfactory results of the HYSPLIT model applications for light fog forecast were obtained with 12 h antecedence. In particular, stable level forecast by the ETA model was forecast satisfactorily with 12 h antecedence; vertical movements were predicted better with up to 48 h antecedence. The PSU/NCAR mesoscale model (MM5) and PAFOG models were tested for analysis and forecast of an intensive fog event. Intensive fog provoked a fatal accident of a small airplane near the Maceio Airport in 2007. These fog formation processes were studied by NCEP reanalysis data, the high resolution regional model MM5, and satellite and radar data. Fog formation was simulated by PAFOG model and satisfactory results were obtained with 10 h antecedence.     

Estimating the surface wind speed over drifting pack ice from surface weather charts

Routine surface wind speed data, vital for the study of drifting pack ice, are not available for the polar oceans. Over sea, it has been demonstrated by Hasse that estimates of surface wind speed may be obtained from the geostrophic wind speed using linear formulae. Comparing estimated with observed data for six sites in Canada, it is found that the formulae may also be applied to obtain estimates of surface wind speed over pack ice.