Effect of spatial variation characteristics on contouring of design storm depth

The ordinary kriging method, a geostatistical interpolation technique, was applied for developing contour maps of design storm depth in northern Taiwan using intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) data. Results of variogram modelling on design storm depths indicate that the design storms can be categorized into two distinct storm types: (i) storms of short duration and high spatial variation and (ii) storms of long duration and less spatial variation. For storms of the first category, the influence range of rainfall depth decreases when the recurrence interval increases, owing to the increasing degree of their spatial independence. However, for storms of the second category, the influence range of rainfall depth does not change significantly and has an average of approximately 72 km. For very extreme events, such as events of short duration and long recurrence interval, we do not recommend usage of the established design storm contours, because most of the interstation distances exceed the influence ranges. Our study concludes that the influence range of the design storm depth is dependent on the design duration and recurrence interval and is a key factor in developing design storm contours. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Validation of Landslide Susceptibility Maps; Examples and Applications from a Case Study in Northern Spain

A procedure for validating landslide susceptibility maps wasapplied in a study area in northern Spain and the results obtained compared. Validationwas used to carry out sensitivity analysis for individual variables and combinationsof variables. The validity of different map-making methods was tested, as well as theutility of different types of Favourability Functions. The results obtained show thatvalidation is essential to determine the predictive value of susceptibility maps. Italso helps to better select the most suitable function and significant variables, thus improving the efficiency of the mapping process. Validation based on a temporal strategy makes it possible to derive hazard maps from susceptibility maps.     

On the observations of Mount St Helens volcanic emissions: Research note

Abstract

The envelopes of dust clouds from the May 18, 1980 eruption of Mount St Helens in Washington State, U.S.A. were plotted as they traversed the northern United States and southern Canada. Visibility observations at many meteorological stations indicated the presence of volcanic ash and smoke and verified trajectory calculations. In addition, sulphur dioxide released by the volcano was detected as it passed over Toronto, Ontario, while satellite photographs showed dust clouds in the upper atmosphere.     

Logistic regression model for sinkhole susceptibility due to damaged sewer pipes

The occurrence of anthropogenic sinkholes in urban areas can lead to severe socioeconomic losses. A damaged underground sewer pipe is regarded as one of the primary causes of such a phenomenon. This study adopted the best subsets regression method to produce a logistic regression model that evaluates the susceptibility for sinkholes induced by damaged sewer pipes. The model was developed by analyzing the sewer pipe network as well as cases of sinkholes in Seoul, South Korea. Among numerous sewer pipe characteristics tested as explanatory variables, the length, age, elevation, burial depth, size, slope, and materials of the sewer pipe were found to influence the occurrence of sinkhole. The proposed model reasonably estimated the sinkhole susceptibility in the area studied, with an area value under the receiver-operating characteristics curve of 0.753. The proposed methodology will serve as a useful tool that can help local governments to choose a cavity inspection regime, and to prevent sinkholes induced by damaged sewer pipes.     

A large mid-channel sand bar in the macrotidal seaway of outer Asan Bay, Korea: 30 years of morphologic response to anthropogenic impacts

Over the past three decades, dike constructions along the shores and dredging activities for navigation purposes have caused significant sedimentologic/morphologic modifications of a mid-channel bar situated in the tidal seaway of outer Asan Bay, Korea, as shown by a comparison of two sediment datasets collected in the channel and over the bar in 1977 and 2008. In addition, three hydrographic charts published in 1976, 1989, and 2006 were analyzed using GIS to estimate sand volume budgets and any bar migration. The bar is currently about 15 km long and 2–5 km wide, with a relief of 15 m. It is elongated in the tidal flow direction, but asymmetric in cross section. Chart analyses reveal a dramatic reduction in size and volume over the study period. An approximate 19% net loss in total sediment volume was calculated between 1976 and 1989. Since then, a net gain of about 7% has been estimated. The surface areas between selected depth contours reveal a similar pattern, i.e., substantial shrinking until 1989, followed by slight expansion up to 2006. Comparing selected textural parameters (mean grain size, sorting) of a 2008 sediment sampling campaign with those of a 1977 survey, it was found that mean grain sizes have decreased by as much as 1-phi interval, and that the sediments have become more poorly sorted in the vicinity of the bar over the 30-year study period, probably due to a sudden decrease in tidal energy flux after completion of the adjacent dikes. A particular feature is the temporary response of the bar to man-made impacts, characterized by substantial shrinking along its southwestern flank, and slight expansion along its northeastern flank. The observed changes in bar morphology can plausibly be explained by a sudden decrease in sediment supply resulting from a reduction in tidal prism in the wake of diking. The bar initially shrunk, but since 1989 has begun to gradually recover. To compensate the deficit, the bar has lowered its base level by scouring troughs along both flanks.     

Is Prediction of Future Landslides Possible with a GIS?

This contribution explores a strategy for landslide hazard zonation inwhich layers of spatial data are used to represent typical settings inwhich given dynamic types of landslides are likely to occur. Theconcepts of assessment and prediction are defined to focus on therepresentation of future hazardous events and in particular on themyths that often provide obstacles in the application of quantitativemethods. The prediction rate curves for different applications describethe support provided by the different data layers in experiments inwhich the typical setting of hazardous events is approximated bystatistically integrating the spatial information.     

40Ar/39Ar dating of the Jiali and Gaoligong shear zones: Implications for crustal deformation around the Eastern Himalayan Syntaxis

We conducted a comprehensive ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar geochronological study of the Jiali and Gaoligong shear zones to obtain a better understanding of crustal deformation and tectonic evolution around the Eastern Himalayan Syntaxis (EHS). The new age data reveal that the main phase of deformation in the Jiali and Gaoligong shear zones occurred from 22 to 11 Ma and from 18 to 13 Ma, respectively. Structural data collected during this study indicate that the Jiali shear zone underwent a change in shear sense from sinistral to dextral during its movement history. Based on a comparison with the deformation histories of other major shear zones in the region, we argue that the initial sinistral motion recorded by the Jiali shear zone was coincident with that of the Ailao Shan–Red River shear zone, which marked the northern boundary of the southeastward extrusion of the Indochina block during the Early Miocene. From the Middle Miocene (～18 Ma), the Jiali shear zone changed to dextral displacement, becoming linked with the dextral Gaoligong shear zone that developed as a consequence of continued northward indentation of the Indian continent into Asia. Since this time, the Jiali and Gaoligong shear zones have been united, defining the southwestern boundary of the EHS during clockwise rotation of the eastward-extruding Tibetan block, as revealed by recent GPS data. The temporal change in regional deformation pattern from southeastward block extrusion to clockwise rotation of crustal fragments may have played an important role in the development of the eastern Himalayan drainage system around the EHS.     

Development and application of a GIS-based tool for earthquake-induced hazard prediction

An integrated GIS-based tool (GTIS) was constructed to estimate site effects related to the earthquake hazards in the Gyeongju area of Korea. To build the GTIS for the study area, intensive site investigations and geotechnical data collections were performed and a walk-over site survey was additionally carried out to acquire surface geo-knowledge data in accordance with the procedure developed to build the GTIS. For practical applications of the GTIS used to estimate the site effects associated with the amplification of ground motion, seismic microzoning maps of the characteristic site period and the mean shear wave velocity to a depth of 30 m were created and presented as a regional synthetic strategy addressing earthquake-induced hazards. Additionally, based on one-dimensional site response analyses, various seismic microzoning maps for short- and mid-period amplification potentials were created for the study area. Case studies of seismic microzonations in the Gyeongju area verified the usefulness of the GTIS for predicting seismic hazards in the region.