Effect of shipping activity on warming trends in the Canadian Arctic

This paper presents a detailed account of the effect of shipping activity on the increasing trends of air temperatures in the Canadian Arctic region for the period of 1980–2018. Increasing trend of temperature has gained significant attention with respect to shipping activities and sea ice area in the Canadian Arctic. Temperature, sea ice area and shipping traffic datasets were investigated, and simple linear regression analyses were conducted to predict the rate of change(per decade) of the average temperature, considering winter(January) and summer(July) seasons. The results indicate that temperature generally increased over the studied region. Significant warming trend was observed during July, with an increase of up to 1℃, for the Canadian Arctic region. Such increasing trend of temperature was observed during July from the lower to higher latitudes. The increase in temperature during July is speculated to increase the melting of ice. Results also show a decline in sea ice area has a significant positive effect on the shipping traffic, and the numbers of marine vessel continue to increase in the region. The increase in temperature causes the breaking of sea ice due to shipping activities over northern Arctic Canada.     

Real Data Assimilation Using the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) System for a Global Non-hydrostatic NWP model on the Cubed-sphere

An ensemble data assimilation system using the 4-dimensional Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter is implemented to a global non-hydrostatic Numerical Weather Prediction model on the cubed-sphere. The ensemble data assimilation system is coupled to the Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems Package for Observation Processing, for real observation data from diverse resources, including satellites. For computational efficiency in a parallel computing environment, we employ some advanced software engineering techniques in the handling of a large number of files. The ensemble data assimilation system is tested in a semi-operational mode, and its performance is verified using the Integrated Forecast System analysis from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. It is found that the system can be stabilized effectively by additive inflation to account for sampling errors, especially when radiance satellite data are additionally used.     

Development of an Operational Hybrid Data Assimilation System at KIAPS

This study introduces the operational data assimilation (DA) system at the Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems (KIAPS) to the numerical weather prediction community. Its development history and performance are addressed with experimental illustrations and the authors’ previously published studies. Milestones in skill improvements include the initial operational implementation of three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVar), the ingestion of additional satellite observations, and changing the DA scheme to a hybrid four-dimensional ensemble-variational DA using forecasts from an ensemble based on the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF). In the hybrid system, determining the relative contribution of the ensemble-based covariance to the resultant analysis is crucial, particularly for moisture variables including a variety of horizontal scale spectra. Modifications to the humidity control variable, partial rather than full recentering of the ensemble for humidity further improves moisture analysis, and the inclusion of more radiance observations with higher-level peaking channels have significant impacts on stratosphere temperature and wind performance. Recent update of the operational hybrid DA system relative to the previous 3DVar system is described for detailed improvements with interpretation.     

A preliminary study of natural environmental change and its impact on early Late Paleolithic people in the northeast central Korean Peninsula during Marine Istope Stage 3 (40–30k cal a bp)

We comprehensively analyzed sediments obtained from an archeological excavation. A trench sediment profile of Maedun Cave (MC), South Korea, was analyzed geoarchaeologically. Multi-proxy analyses (palynomorphs, grain size, magnetic susceptibility, animal bones and artifacts) reflected the vegetation, hydroclimate and lives of prehistoric people at Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3 (ca. 40–30k cal a bp ) in the early Late Paleolithic. The palynoflora consisted of pollen and non-pollen palynomorphs. Under the air-circulation system in the cave, anemophilous pollen flowed in during the day, whereas waterborne pollen and spores, and freshwater algae, were transported by flooding during the summer monsoon rainy season. Mixed conifer and deciduous broad-leaved forest with an understory of pteridophytes flourished around the north-east central Korean Peninsula during MIS 3. Freshwater algae and grass pollen records may reflect precipitation intensity. It is assumed that they had flowed in during flooding caused by high precipitation during the enhanced East Asian summer monsoon, corresponding to Dansgaard–Oeschger (D/O) events 5 and 8 of δ¹⁸O GISP2 and Hulu Cave. The prehistoric people hunted herbivorous animals in the area around MC and sheltered inside it seasonally. They also used the grains of oats growing near the dwelling as a source of food.