An iterative version of the adaptive Gaussian mixture filter

The adaptive Gaussian mixture filter (AGM) was introduced as a robust filter technique for large-scale applications and an alternative to the well-known ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). It consists of two analysis steps, one linear update and one weighting/resampling step. The bias of AGM is determined by two parameters, one adaptive weight parameter (forcing the weights to be more uniform to avoid filter collapse) and one predetermined bandwidth parameter which decides the size of the linear update. It has been shown that if the adaptive parameter approaches one and the bandwidth parameter decreases, as an increasing function of the sample size, the filter can achieve asymptotic optimality. For large-scale applications with a limited sample size, the filter solution may be far from optimal as the adaptive parameter gets close to zero depending on how well the samples from the prior distribution match the data. The bandwidth parameter must often be selected significantly different from zero in order to make large enough linear updates to match the data, at the expense of bias in the estimates. In the iterative AGM we introduce here, we take advantage of the fact that the history matching problem is usually estimation of parameters and initial conditions. If the prior distribution of initial conditions and parameters is close to the posterior distribution, it is possible to match the historical data with a small bandwidth parameter and an adaptive weight parameter that gets close to one. Hence, the bias of the filter solution is small. In order to obtain this scenario, we iteratively run the AGM throughout the data history with a very small bandwidth to create a new prior distribution from the updated samples after each iteration. After a few iterations, nearly all samples from the previous iteration match the data, and the above scenario is achieved. A simple toy problem shows that it is possible to reconstruct the true posterior distribution using the iterative version of the AGM. Then a 2D synthetic reservoir is revisited to demonstrate the potential of the new method on large-scale problems.     

On the possible role of cusp/cleft precipitation in the formation of polar-cap patches

The work describes experimental observations of enhancements in the electron density of the ionospheric F-region created by cusp/cleft particle precipitation at the dayside entry to the polar-cap convection flow. Measurements by meridian scanning photometer and all-sky camera of optical red-line emissions from aurora are used to identify latitudinally narrow bands of soft-particle precipitation responsible for structured enhancements in electron density determined from images obtained by radio tomography. Two examples are discussed in which the electron density features with size scales and magnitudes commensurate with those of patches are shown to be formed by precipitation at the entry region to the anti-sunward flow. In one case the spectrum of the incoming particles results in ionisation being created, for the most part below 250 km, so that the patch will persist only for minutes after convecting away from the auroral source region. However in a second example, at a time when the plasma density of the solar wind was particularly high, a substantial part of the particle-induced enhancement formed above 250 km. It is suggested that, with the reduced recombination loss in the upper F-region, this structure will retain form as a patch during passage in the anti-sunward flow across the polar cap.     

Tectonic,sedimentary and diagenetic controls on sediment maturity of lower Cambrian quartz arenite from southwestern Baltica

Lower Cambrian quartz arenitic deposits have a worldwide occurrence. In this study, petrographic and mineralogical analyses were carried out on samples from the quartz‐rich Ringsaker Member of the Vangsås Formation from southern Norway and the corresponding Hardeberga Formation from southern Sweden and on the Danish island of Bornholm. The quartz arenite is almost completely quartz cemented and has an average intergranular volume of 30%. The quartz cement is the dominating cause for porosity loss. Dissolution along stylolites and microstylolites is suggested to be the primary and secondary source for the quartz cement respectively. The quartzose sandstone from southern Norway was severely cemented prior to the Caledonian Orogeny, thus limiting the tectonic influence on diagenesis during thrusting. For most samples, authigenic clay minerals and detrital phyllosilicates represent ca. 5% of the present‐day composition. This, together with a low feldspar content, of on average 4%, indicates that the sediment was extremely quartz‐rich already during deposition. The low amount of feldspar prior to burial and the formation of early diagenetic kaolinite point to weathering, sediment reworking and early diagenesis act as important controls on sediment maturity. The large variation in clay‐mineral and feldspar content between the localities, as well as within the sandstone successions, can be explained by different palaeogeography on the shelf during deposition and subsequently dissimilar subjection to reworking and early diagenetic processes. Weathering in the provenance area, reworking in the depositional shallow‐marine environment and meteoric flushing during the burial stage are suggested to explain the high mineralogical maturity of the lower Cambrian sandstone from southwestern Baltica. These processes may generally account for similar quartz‐rich shallow‐marine sandstone units, deposited as a result of intensive continental denudation and during temperate to subtropical and moderately humid conditions.     

Latitudinal and longitudinal dispersion of energetic auroral protons

Using a collision by collision model from Lorentzen et al., the latitudinal and longitudinal dispersion of single auroral protons are calculated. The proton energies varies from 1 to 50 keV, and are released into the atmosphere at 700 km altitude. The dipole magnetic field has a dip-angle of 8 degrees. Results show that the main dispersion region is at high altitudes (300–350 km) and occurs during the first few charge exchange collisions. As the proton travels further down the atmosphere the mean free path becomes smaller, and as a result the spreading effect will not be as pronounced. This means that the first few charge exchange collisions fully determines the width of both the latitudinal and longitudinal dispersion. The volume emission rate was calculated for energies between 1 and 50 keV, and it was found that dayside auroral hydrogen emissions rates were approximately 10 times weaker than nightside emission rates. Simulations were also performed to obtain the dependence of the particle dispersion as a function of initial pitch-angle. It was found that the dispersion varies greatly with initial pitch-angle, and the results are summarized in two tables; a main and an extreme dispersion region.