Doline probability map using logistic regression and GIS technology in the central Ebro Basin (Spain)

In the surroundings of Zaragoza, karstification processes are especially intense in covered karst areas where fluvial terraces lie directly on Tertiary evaporites. Since the beginning of Quaternary, these processes have lead to the development of collapse and subsidence dolines with a wide range of sizes, which have significant economic impacts. To reduce economic impact and increase safety, a regional analysis of this phenomenon is needed for spatial management. Therefore, a probability map of dolines was developed using logistic regression and geographic information system (GIS) techniques. This paper covers the selection of input data, manipulation of data using the GIS technology, and the use of logistic regression to generate a doline probability map. The primary variable in the doline development in this area is geomorphology, represented by the location of endorheic areas and different terrace levels. Secondary variables are the presence of irrigation and the water table gradient.     

Suitability analysis for sand and gravel extraction site location in the context of a sustainable development in the surroundings of Zaragoza (Spain)

Zaragoza city is located in the central Ebro Basin, in the Iberian Peninsula. The fluvial terraces formed by the Ebro River present a valuable resource of sand and gravel deposits. However, taking advantage of these available resources implies conflicts with other land use interests like urban and industrial development as well as agricultural use, which has also traditionally occupied the alluvial terraces. These deposits represent a substantial groundwater resource that should be preserved for future generations. The development of spatial decision support systems (SDSS) has greatly assisted efforts for solving land-use conflicts. These systems combine the benefits of geographic information systems (GIS) and decision support methodologies and are therefore suitable to manage sustainable development of urban areas. In this contribution, an extraction suitability map taking into consideration a variety of environmental criteria is created with the help of a SDSS. The method used is the analytical hierarchy process which is integrated in ArcGIS. Areas most suitable to sand and gravel extraction are located in the high terraces, and in those terraces covered by pediments where the thickness of resource is relatively high. These areas are far from valuable natural areas, outside areas most vulnerable to groundwater contamination, and beneath soils with poor irrigation characteristics.     

Understanding the Past and Present and Predicting the Future: Farmers’ Use of Multiple Nutrient Best Management Practices in the Upper Midwest

Understanding what drives farmers’ voluntary adoption of nutrient and soil best management practices has important consequences for many environmental outcomes including water quality. We build on research revealing the need for simultaneous use of multiple nitrogen best management practices to achieve water quality improvement goals. Using social, economic and attitudinal variables we predict the use of multiple nitrogen best management practices at three time points: current use (2013), past use (before 2013), and likelihood of use on their largest field in the next three years. Our empirical analysis uses structural equation modeling with latent variables and 2014 farmer survey data from three Midwestern US states. Most farmers in our sample used at least one of the six best management practices. Our results reveal that farmers’ attitudes, use of information sources, and conservation program participation affect the number of nitrogen best management practices concurrently in use at multiple time points.     

Glyptograptus? persculptus (Salter), its tectonic deformation,and its stratigraphic significance for the Carys Mills Formation of N.E. Maine,U.S.A.

The Carys Mills Formation of NE Maine represents the SW extension of the Matapedia Group and the White Head Formation of southern Gaspé, Quebec. This formation has yielded two main collections, one hitherto considered of Middle Ordovician age (zone 13 of Berry's 1960 Marathon, Texas, zonation) with 7 species referred to 4 genera, and one of the Early Silurian age. A revision of the supposed Middle Ordovician collections reveals that the graptolites are basal Silurian and consist of only one species, Glyptograptus? persculptus. Several hundred specimens, preserved both flattened and in three dimensions, the latter in iron pyrites, allow an analysis of both the rhabdosome changes wrought by diagenetic flattening and those caused by severe tectonic deformation. It is shown that those specimens lying parallel to the bedding plane lineation caused by a high-angle main cleavage have a silhouette appearance close to Glyptograptus tamariscus (Nicholson), whilst those at right angles to this direction superficially resemble robust Amplexograptus spp., or Diplograptus s.s., or Diplograptus s.l. spp., thus explaining the stratigraphic assignment of earlier workers. An analogue video reshaper confirms the above conclusions. This determination assigns the whole Carys Mills Formation to the Lower Silurian, but the possibility that part of the formation is of Late Ordovician age cannot be excluded. This much is suggested by the Matapedia Group and the White Head Formation which are of Late Ordovician to Early Silurian age, and the Honorat Group, which has yielded graptolites of late Middle Ordovician age.     

Age and impacts of the caldera-forming Aniakchak II eruption in western Alaska

The mid-Holocene eruption of Aniakchak volcano (Aniakchak II) in southwest Alaska was among the largest eruptions globally in the last 10,000 years (VEI-6). Despite evidence for possible impacts on global climate, the precise age of the eruption is not well-constrained and little is known about regional environmental impacts. A closely spaced sequence of radiocarbon dates at a peatland site over 1000 km from the volcano show that peat accumulation was greatly reduced with a hiatus of approximately 90–120 yr following tephra deposition. During this inferred hiatus no paleoenvironmental data are available but once vegetation returned the flora changed from a Cyperaceae-dominated assemblage to a Poaceae-dominated vegetation cover, suggesting a drier and/or more nutrient-rich ecosystem. Oribatid mites are extremely abundant in the peat at the depth of the ash, and show a longer-term, increasingly wet peat surface across the tephra layer. The radiocarbon sample immediately below the tephra gave a date of 1636–1446 cal yr BC suggesting that the eruption might be younger than previously thought. Our findings suggest that the eruption may have led to a widespread reduction in peatland carbon sequestration and that the impacts on ecosystem functioning were profound and long-lasting.     

Long-term groundwater resource observatory for Southwestern Madagascar

Madagascar has one of the highest poverty rates in the world and consequently the long-term monitoring of groundwater resources is not a priority for the authorities. However, groundwater is often the only sustainable resource that has a satisfactory quality to supply the population. This is especially true in the south-west of the country, which is a semi-arid region and a global change hot spot (intense land use and climate changes). In response to the lack of data, the Groundwater Resource Observatory for Southwestern Madagascar (GROSoM) was established to monitor piezometry and meteorology over the longer term as part of a humanitarian response. The first site was setup in 2014 in a catchment located over a carbonate plateau; in 2018, a second site was installed in an alluvial setting within a crystalline basement catchment and a third site will be installed in 2020 to monitor groundwater dynamics in a coastal setting. The three sites, located between Toliara and Taolagnaro cities, are complementary and representative of various hydrogeological systems in Southwestern Madagascar. Each site includes a weather station and between 3 and 6 piezometric probes. The monitoring data indicate a strong inter-annual variability in precipitation, which induces a strong variability in aquifers recharge. One of the driest years in 2016 seems to be consistent with strong El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effects observed at the global scale, while years with higher recharge appear to be related to cyclones such as Fundi in 2015 and Eketsang in 2019. Preliminary results of cross-disciplinary studies demonstrated a link between groundwater and health issues (i.e., admissions to basic health centres). This observatory aims to produce long-term data and has two objectives: (i) strengthening the early warning system for humanitarian crises in Madagascar; (ii) contributing to a better understanding of the effects of climate change on groundwater resources in this semi-arid region.     

Sub-Gaussian model of processes with heavy-tailed distributions applied to air permeabilities of fractured tuff

Earth and environmental variables are commonly taken to have multivariate Gaussian or heavy-tailed distributions in space and/or time. This is based on the observation that univariate frequency distributions of corresponding samples appear to be Gaussian or heavy-tailed. Of particular interest to us is the well-documented but heretofore little noticed and unexplained phenomenon that whereas the frequency distribution of log permeability data often seems to be Gaussian, that of corresponding increments tends to exhibit heavy tails. The tails decay as powers of ? $ \alpha $ where 1 <  $ \alpha $  < 2 is either constant or grows monotonically toward an asymptote with increasing separation distance or lag. We illustrate the latter phenomenon on 1-m scale log air permeabilities from pneumatic tests in 6 vertical and inclined boreholes completed in unsaturated fractured tuff near Superior, Arizona. We then show theoretically and demonstrate numerically, on synthetically generated signals, that whereas the case of constant $ \alpha $ is consistent with a collection of samples from truncated sub-Gaussian fractional Lévy noise, a random field (or process) subordinated to truncated fractional Gaussian noise, the case of variable $ \alpha $ is consistent with a collection of samples from truncated sub-Gaussian fractional Lévy motion (tfLm), a random field subordinated to truncated fractional Brownian motion. Whereas the first type of signal is relatively regular and characterized by Lévy index $ \alpha $ , the second is highly irregular (punctuated by spurious spikes) and characterized by the asymptote of $ \alpha $ values associated with its increments. We describe a procedure to estimate the parameters of univariate distributions characterizing such signals and apply it to our log air permeability data. The latter are found to be consistent with a collection of samples from tfLm with $ \alpha $ slightly smaller than 2, which is easily confused with a Gaussian field (characterized by constant $ \alpha $  = 2). The irregular (spiky) nature of this signal is typical of observed fractured rock properties. We propose that distributions of earth and environmental variable be inferred jointly from measured values and their increments in a way that insures consistency between these two sets of data.