A summary of sulfur dioxide emission rate measuremnts from Guatemalan volcanoes

Measurements of the sulfur dioxide (SO₂) emission rate from three Guatemalan volcanoes provide data which are consistent with theoretical and laboratory studies of eruptive and shallow magma chamber processes. In particular, unerupted magma makes a major contribution to the measured SO₂ emission rates at Santiaguito, a continuously erupting dacitic volcanic dome. Varying shallow magma convection rates can explain the variations in SO₂ emission rates at Santiaguito. At Fuego, a basaltic volcano currently in repose, SO₂ emission rate measurements are consistent with a high level magma body that is crystallizing and releasing volatiles. At Pacaya, a continuously erupting basaltic volcano, recent SO₂ emission rate measurements support laboratory simulation studies of strombolian eruptions; these studies indicate that the majority of gas escapes during eruptions and little gas escapes between eruptions.Average SO₂ emission rates over the last 20 years for Santiaguito, Fuego and Pacaya are 80, 160 and 260 Mg/d, respectively. On a global scale, these three volcanoes account for 1% of the annual global volcanic output of SO₂. Santiaguito and Pacaya, together, emit 6% of the total annual SO₂ emitted by continuously erupting volcanoes.Even though SO₂ measurements at these volcanoes have been made infrequently and by different investigators, the collective data help to establish a useful baseline by which to judge future changes. A more complete record of SO₂ emission rates from these volcanoes could lead to a better understanding of their eruption mechanisms and reduce the impact of their future eruptions on Guatemalan society.     

Evidence for discrete subpopulations of sea perch (Helicolenus ercoides) across four fjords in Fiordland,New Zealand

In coastal populations of invertebrates and fishes, the distribution of discrete subpopulations is influenced by adult and larval dispersal, as well as by the effects of habitat heterogeneity on site fidelity or connectivity. Here, we examine evidence for spatial structure of sea perch, Helicolenus percoides, populations among four fjords in the Fiordland region of southwestern New Zealand. We examine patterns in adult morphology, length-at-age, δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N of muscle tissue, and trace elemental composition of whole otoliths as proxies for population isolation among the four inner fjord regions. A multivariate analysis of morphometrics reveals significant differences among populations from each of the four sites, suggesting existence of four distinct subpopulations. These patterns are consistent with observed differences in δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N, and length-at-age estimates among the four subpopulations. Differences in whole otolith concentrations of Sr, Ba, Mg and Li, and high classification scores based on the whole otolith elemental fingerprint are also consistent with significant subdivision among areas. Patterns across all four markers are consistent with discrete subpopulation structure of adult sea perch among the four study sites. These data indicate that the newly implemented network of marine protected areas in Fiordland is likely to contain discrete populations of sea perch.     

Analyses of possible changes in intense and extreme wind speeds over northern Europe under climate change scenarios

Dynamical downscaling of ECHAM5 using HIRHAM5 and RCA3 for a northern European domain focused on Scandinavia indicates sustained extreme wind speeds with long recurrence intervals (50?years) and intense winds are not likely to evolve out of the historical envelope of variability until the end of C21st. Even then, significant changes are indicated only in the SW of the domain and across the central Baltic Sea where there is some evidence for relatively small magnitude increases in the 50?year return period wind speed (of up to 15%). There are marked differences in results based on the two Regional Climate Models. Additionally, internal (inherent) variability and initial conditions exert a strong impact on projected wind climates throughout the twenty-first century. Simulations of wind gusts by one of the RCMs (RCA3) indicate some evidence for increased magnitudes (of up to +10%) in the southwest of the domain and across the central Baltic Sea by the end of the current century. As in prior downscaling of ECHAM4, dynamical downscaling of ECHAM5 indicates a tendency towards increased energy density and thus wind power generation potential over the course of the C21st. However, caution should be used in interpreting this inference given the high degree of wind climate projection spread that derives from the specific AOGCM and RCM used in the downscaling.     

Transport and storage of bed material in a gravel‐bed channel during episodes of aggradation and degradation: a field and flume study

The dynamics of sediment transport capacity in gravel‐bed rivers is critical to understanding the formation and preservation of fluvial landforms and formulating sediment‐routing models in drainage systems. We examine transport‐storage relations during cycles of aggradation and degradation by augmenting observations of three events of channel aggradation and degradation in Cuneo Creek, a steep (3%) gravel‐bed channel in northern California, with measurements from a series of flume runs modeling those events. An armored, single‐thread channel was formed before feed rates were increased in each aggradation run. Output rates increased as the channel became finer and later widened, steepened, and braided. After feed rates were cut, output rates remained high or increased in early stages of degradation as the incising channel remained fine‐grained, and later decreased as armoring intensified. If equilibrium was not reached before sediment feed rate was cut, then a rapid transition from a braided channel to a single‐thread channel caused output rates for a given storage volume to be higher during degradation than during aggradation. Variations in channel morphology, and surface bed texture during runs that modeled the three cycles of aggradation and degradation were similar to those observed in Cuneo Creek and provide confidence in interpretations of the history of change: Cuneo Creek aggraded rapidly as it widened, shallowed, and braided, then degraded rapidly before armoring stabilized the channel. Such morphology‐driven changes in transport capacity may explain the formation of flood terraces in proximal channels. Transport‐storage relations can be expected to vary between aggradation and degradation and be influenced by channel conditions at the onset of changes in sediment supply. Published in 2011. This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.     

An example of fingerprint detection of greenhouse climate change

As an example of the technique of fingerprint detection of greenhouse climate change, a multivariate signal or fingerprint of the enhanced greenhouse effect is defined using the zonal mean atmospheric temperature change as a function of height and latitude between equilibrium climate model simulations with control and doubled CO₂ concentrations. This signal is compared with observed atmospheric temperature variations over the period 1963 to 1988 from radiosonde-based global analyses. There is a significant increase of this greenhouse signal in the observational data over this period.These results must be treated with caution. Upper air data are available for a short period only, possibly too short to be able to resolve any real greenhouse climate change. The greenhouse fingerprint used in this study may not be unique to the enhanced greenhouse effect and may be due to other forcing mechanisms. However, it is shown that the patterns of atmospheric temperature change associated with uniform global increases of sea surface temperature, with El NinoSouthern Oscillation events and with decreases of stratospheric ozone concentrations individually are different from the greenhouse fingerprint used here.     

Modeled Nitrogen Loading to Narragansett Bay: 1850 to 2015

Nutrient loading to estuaries with heavily populated watersheds can have profound ecological consequences. In evaluating policy options for managing nitrogen (N), it is helpful to understand current and historic spatial loading patterns to the system. We modeled N inputs to Narragansett Bay from 1850 to 2000, using data on population, human waste disposal, livestock, fertilizer, and atmospheric deposition. We found that total N loading to the bay increased 250% from 1850 to 2000, and 80% from 1900 to 2000. Loading to the upper bay increased far more than that to the lower bay, and the most important source shifted from non-point animal waste to human waste concentrated at sewage treatment facilities. We also modeled future N loads in 2015 under four management scenarios. Planned improvements in sewage treatment would reduce N loads 9% below business-as-usual, to the 1990 loading rate. Greater reductions, to circa 1900 rates of loading, may be possible.     

Rapid climate change in the Upper Palaeolithic: the record of charcoal conifer rings from the Gravettian site of Dolní Vĕstonice,Czech Republic

Precisely how Upper Palaeolithic human ecology was shaped by changing climate during the Pleniglacial remains a matter of debate, for while this generally cold period is now understood to include complex and often rapid flux in climate, there are still considerable difficulties in resolving climatic variations at particular times and places — derived from various lines of proxy evidence — with the high-resolution proxy record of temperature changes from oxygen isotope analysis of the Greenland ice-cores.In this paper we apply the methodology of large-scale flotation to newly excavated contexts from the Upper Palaeolithic (Gravettian) site of Dolní V?stonice II, Czech Republic, to explore the potential of charcoal — as a natural archive of environmental information — to offer information on environmental change towards the end of the middle pleniglacial during Oxygen Isotope Stage 3, between c. 32,500 and 31,200 Cal yr BP. The results of an analysis of ring widths and other anatomical features — interpreted alongside micromorphological data — indicate that this charcoal may capture a higher-resolution record of the changing climatic conditions during which humans were first expanding into these hitherto marginal ecologies and, consequently, shed new light upon the complexity of the lifeways that enabled them to do so.     

Colonisation of South African kelp-bed canopies by the alien mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis: extent and implications of a novel bioinvasion

The Mediterranean mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis is the most significant invasive alien marine species in South Africa and, although not normally found subtidally, has recently been observed colonising heads and stipes of the kelp species Ecklonia maxima in False Bay. We quantified this invasion and explored its ecological implications. Transects laid across kelp beds revealed that 10.34% of kelp individuals surveyed bore canopy mussels, with kelp heads (10.07%) being far more commonly infected than stipes (0.27%). Twenty kelp individuals with infected heads and 20 with infected stipes were separately collected for more-detailed examination. Wet mass of mussels on these kelp heads ranged from 2.5 to 2 462 g (median 86.4 g, interquartile range 14.8–353.8 g) and that of mussels on the stipes from 7.6 to 3 492 g (median 595.5 g, interquartile range 194.0–955.0 g). Mussel clumps consisted mostly of individuals <40 mm in length. Mussel clumps supported a rich biota of 80 invertebrate and 13 algal species. Larger clumps supported more epibiotic species, and those on stipes more species than those of comparable mass on kelp heads. The mussels and their associated epibiotic species negatively affected kelp buoyancy, but rarely enough to overcome natural buoyancy. Some kelp individuals that had been toppled by the weight of mussels and their epibiotic species, however, were encountered in situ. Implications of this invasion include large increases in animal biomass and species richness in the kelp canopy, plus reductions in kelp buoyancy and increased hydrodynamic drag on infected kelps, increasing their probability of being uprooted. Uprooted kelp individuals can raft long distances, potentially transporting both native and alien species to distant sites.