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1.
What the Sunspot Record Tells Us About Space Climate 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
The records concerning the number, sizes, and positions of sunspots provide a direct means of characterizing solar activity
over nearly 400 years. Sunspot numbers are strongly correlated with modern measures of solar activity including: 10.7-cm radio
flux, total irradiance, X-ray flares, sunspot area, the baseline level of geomagnetic activity, and the flux of galactic cosmic
rays. The Group Sunspot Number provides information on 27 sunspot cycles, far more than any of the modern measures of solar
activity, and enough to provide important details about long-term variations in solar activity or “Space Climate.” The sunspot
record shows: 1) sunspot cycles have periods of 131± 14 months with a normal distribution; 2) sunspot cycles are asymmetric
with a fast rise and slow decline; 3) the rise time from minimum to maximum decreases with cycle amplitude; 4) large amplitude
cycles are preceded by short period cycles; 5) large amplitude cycles are preceded by high minima; 6) although the two hemispheres
remain linked in phase, there are significant asymmetries in the activity in each hemisphere; 7) the rate at which the active
latitudes drift toward the equator is anti-correlated with the cycle period; 8) the rate at which the active latitudes drift
toward the equator is positively correlated with the amplitude of the cycle after the next; 9) there has been a significant
secular increase in the amplitudes of the sunspot cycles since the end of the Maunder Minimum (1715); and 10) there is weak
evidence for a quasi-periodic variation in the sunspot cycle amplitudes with a period of about 90 years. These characteristics
indicate that the next solar cycle should have a maximum smoothed sunspot number of about 145 ± 30 in 2010 while the following
cycle should have a maximum of about 70 ± 30 in 2023. 相似文献
2.
We consider the evolution of certain low-mass binaries, incorporating models of (a) internal evolution, (b) tidal friction,
(c) dynamo activity driven by an elementary α,Ω dynamo, (d) stellar wind driven by the activity, and (e) magnetic braking
as a consequence of wind and poloidal dynamo-generated magnetic field. In some circumstances the stellar wind is found to
remove mass on a nuclear timescale, as is necessary to explain some observed systems.
We can hope that various uncertainties in the model may be clarified by a careful comparison of the models with such observed
quantities as rotation periods. These are modified by processes (a), (b) and (e). Assuming that stellar evolution is slow,
rotation rate should in some circumstances represent a balance between magnetic braking trying to slow the star down and tidal
friction trying to spin it up. Preliminary attempts are promising, but indicate that some fine tuning is necessary.
When there is a third body present, in an orbit which is inclined but not necessarily of short period, the eccentricity of
a close binary can be strongly modified by ‘Kozai cycles’. We show that this may complicate attempts to account for spin rates
of stars in close binaries. 相似文献
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Himmerfjärd is a Swedish estuary bordering on the Baltic. The estuary lacks astronomical tides and its circulation is driven by winds and freshwater runoff. Because of a tertiary sewage treatment plant located at its inner end, the estuary is becoming increasingly eutrophic. A field study was carried out for a 78-day period in late summer and early fall of 1977 to determine rates of nutrient transport and to construct nutrient budgets. Since physical parameters (current velocity, temperature, salinity, winds and water level changes) were measured more frequently than nutrients (phosphate, nitrate, nitrite and ammonium) it was necessary to develop a suitable method to calculate nutrient flux time series and net nutrient fluxes. Over the study period, Himmerfjärd imported phosphorus and exported nitrogen. Direction of nutrient fluxes and changes in flux direction were consistent with the structure of the baroclinic currents. 相似文献
6.
We have developed a method for analytically solving the porous medium flow equation in many different geometries for horizontal (two‐dimensional), homogeneous and isotropic aquifers containing impermeable boundaries and any number of pumping or injection wells located at arbitrary positions within the system. Solutions and results are presented for rectangular and circular aquifers but the method presented here is easily extendible to many geometries. Results are also presented for systems where constant head boundary conditions can be emulated internal to the aquifer boundary. Recommendations for extensions of the present work are briefly discussed. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
7.
Lawrence M. Mayer Peter T. Rahaim William Guerin Stephen A. Macko Les Watling Franz E. Anderson 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》1985,20(4):491-503
A variety of measures of organic matter concentration and quality were made on samples collected from the top few mm of intertidal mudflat sediment over the course of a year, in order to assess the relative importance of biological and sedimentological influences on sedimentary organic matter. Winter and summer were times of relatively fine-grained sediment accumulation, caused by biological deposition or stabilization processes and resulting in higher organic matter concentrations. Stable carbon isotope and Br:C ratios indicated a planktonic source of bulk organic matter. Ratios of organic carbon to specific surface area of the sediments were consistent with an organic monolayer coverage of sediment grains. Correction for changing grain size during the year showed no change in the organic concentration per unit surface area, in spite of organic matter inputs by in situ primary production, buildup of heterotroph biomass and mucus coatings, and biodeposition of organic-rich seston. There were also no indications of changes in bulk organic quality, measured as hydrolyzable carbohydrates and amino acids, in response to these biological processes. It is concluded that biological processes on a seasonal time scale affect the bulk organic matter of these sediments via a modulation of grain size rather than creation or decay of organic matter. 相似文献
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10.
We revisit the dynamics of Prometheus and Pandora, two small moons flanking Saturn's F ring. Departures of their orbits from freely precessing ellipses result from mutual interactions via their 121:118 mean motion resonance. Motions are chaotic because the resonance is split into four overlapping components. Orbital longitudes were observed to drift away from predictions based on Voyager ephemerides. A sudden jump in mean motions took place close to the time at which the orbits' apses were antialigned in 2000. Numerical integrations reproduce both the longitude drifts and the jumps. The latter have been attributed to the greater strength of interactions near apse antialignment (every 6.2 yr), and it has been assumed that this drift-jump behavior will continue indefinitely. We re-examine the dynamics of the Prometheus-Pandora system by analogy with that of a nearly adiabatic, parametric pendulum. In terms of this analogy, the current value of the action of the satellite system is close to its maximum in the chaotic zone. Consequently, at present, the two separatrix crossings per precessional cycle occur close to apse antialignment. In this state libration only occurs when the potential's amplitude is nearly maximal, and the “jumps” in mean motion arise during the short intervals of libration that separate long stretches of circulation. Because chaotic systems explore the entire region of phase space available to them, we expect that at other times the Prometheus-Pandora system would be found in states of medium or low action. In a low action state it would spend most of the time in libration, and separatrix crossings would occur near apse alignment. We predict that transitions between these different states can happen in as little as a decade. Therefore, it is incorrect to assume that sudden changes in the orbits only happen near apse antialignment. 相似文献