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1.
This article presents the application of a multivariate prediction technique for predicting universal time (UT1–UTC), length of day (LOD) and the axial component of atmospheric angular momentum (AAM χ 3). The multivariate predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC are generated by means of the combination of (1) least-squares (LS) extrapolation of models for annual, semiannual, 18.6-year, 9.3-year oscillations and for the linear trend, and (2) multivariate autoregressive (MAR) stochastic prediction of LS residuals (LS + MAR). The MAR technique enables the use of the AAM χ 3 time-series as the explanatory variable for the computation of LOD or UT1–UTC predictions. In order to evaluate the performance of this approach, two other prediction schemes are also applied: (1) LS extrapolation, (2) combination of LS extrapolation and univariate autoregressive (AR) prediction of LS residuals (LS + AR). The multivariate predictions of AAM χ 3 data, however, are computed as a combination of the extrapolation of the LS model for annual and semiannual oscillations and the LS + MAR. The AAM χ 3 predictions are also compared with LS extrapolation and LS + AR prediction. It is shown that the predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC based on LS + MAR taking into account the axial component of AAM are more accurate than the predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC based on LS extrapolation or on LS + AR. In particular, the UT1–UTC predictions based on LS + MAR during El Niño/La Niña events exhibit considerably smaller prediction errors than those calculated by means of LS or LS + AR. The AAM χ 3 time-series is predicted using LS + MAR with higher accuracy than applying LS extrapolation itself in the case of medium-term predictions (up to 100 days in the future). However, the predictions of AAM χ 3 reveal the best accuracy for LS + AR. 相似文献
2.
3.
Ewa GłOwacka 《Natural Hazards》1993,7(2):121-132
Stress concentrations produced by rock deformation due to extraction in underground mines induce seismicity that can take the shape of violent and quite dangerous rockbursts.The hazard evaluation presented in this paper is based on a Bayesian probabilistic synthesis of information determined from mining situations during excavation, with previous and present data from microseismicity and seismoacustics.The method proposed in this study is an example of time-dependent on-line seismic hazard evaluation. All results presented were obtained retrospectiely for different underground coal mines in Poland and Czechoslovakia.On leave from Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences 01-452 Warszawa, ul. Ksiecia Janusza 64, Poland. 相似文献
4.
Leonard Boszke Artur Kowalski Witold Szczuciński Grzegorz Rachlewicz Stanisław Lorenc Jerzy Siepak 《Environmental Geology》2006,51(4):527-536
The 26 December 2004 tsunami covered significant portion of a coastal zone with a blanket of potentially contaminated sediments. In this report are presented results on mercury concentrations in sediments deposited by the tsunami in a coastal zone of Thailand. Since the total mercury concentrations are insufficient to assess mercury mobility and bioavailability in sediment, its fractionation was applied. Sediments were sampled within 50 days after the event and analyzed by sequential extraction method. The procedure of sequential extraction involved five subsequent stages performed with solutions of chloroform, deionized water, 0.5 M HCl, 0.2 M NaOH, and aqua regia. The mean concentration of total mercury in sediments was 119 ± 50 ng g−1 dry mass (range 66–230). The fractionation revealed that mercury is mainly bound to the least bioavailable sulphides 75 ± 6% (range 62–86), organomercury compounds 14 ± 7% (range 4–26), and humic matter 9 ± 7% (range 1–27). The lowest contributions bring fractions of water-soluble mercury 0.8 ± 1.0% (range 0.1–3.6) and acid soluble mercury 0.9 ± 0.5% (range 0.2–2.1). Although, the total mercury content is similar in a reference sample and in the tsunami sediments, the highly toxic organomercury fraction contribution is higher in the latter. The results were compared with chemical and sedimentological properties of the sediments but no significant correlations were obtained between them. 相似文献
5.
A new type of gold mineralisation containing minor amounts of platinum and palladium has been found proximal to the secondary redox interface located below the Cu-Ag Kupferschiefer orebody of the Polkowice-Sieroszowice mine in the south-western part of the Lubin-Sieroszowice district, Poland. This deposit can be classified as redbed-type gold. Our study shows that gold, platinum and palladium occur in secondary red-coloured sections of the basal Zechstein sedimentary rocks and in the uppermost Weissliegendes sandstone. Noble metal mineralisation occurs within an average interval of 0.22 m, which lies directly below the copper ores. The average grade of the horizon is 2.25 ppm Au, 0.138 ppm Pt and 0.082 ppm Pd with a metal content of several tens of tonnes of gold. A transition zone has been recognised between the gold-bearing horizon and the copper deposit. This transition zone is characterised by the presence of low grades of copper (<0.2 wt%) and elevated gold contents (>0.5 ppm). Native gold accompanied by electrum, mercury-bearing gold, haematite, covellite, chalcocite, bornite and chalcopyrite has been identified in the gold-bearing horizon. In some sections, Pd-arsenides, tetra-auricupride, Co-arsenides, clausthalite, tennantite, digenite, yarrowite, spionkopite and galena have also been noted. 相似文献
6.
Some ilmenite concentrates obtained from oleate flotation of ilmenite ores from NE Poland contain less than the required 45% TiO2 due to the presence of green spinels (hercynite and pleonaste). Such concentrates were further upgraded by different separation techniques. It was established at microlaboratory scale that magnetic, gravity and high-tension separations can provide qualified ilmenite concentrates with TiO2 recovery in the order of 50 to 80%. 相似文献
7.
Małgorzata Białek 《Acta Geophysica》2006,54(1):60-70
Long-term changes in total ozone time series for Arosa, Belsk, Boulder and Sapporo stations are examined. For each station
we analyze time series of the following statistical characteristics of the distribution of daily ozone data: seasonal mean,
standard deviation, maximum and minimum of total daily ozone values for all seasons. The iterative statistical model is proposed
to estimate trends and long-term changes in the statistical distribution of the daily total ozone data. The trends are calculated
for the period 1980–2003. We observe lessening of negative trends in the seasonal means as compared to those calculated by
WMO for 1980–2000. We discuss a possibility of a change of the distribution shape of ozone daily data using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov
test and comparing trend values in the seasonal mean, standard deviation, maximum and minimum time series for the selected
stations and seasons. The distribution shift toward lower values without a change in the distribution shape is suggested with
the following exceptions: the spreading of the distribution toward lower values for Belsk during winter and no decisive result
for Sapporo and Boulder in summer. 相似文献
8.
Karolina Kośmińska Frank S. Spear Jarosław Majka Karol Faehnrich Maciej Manecki Karsten Piepjohn Winfried K. Dallmann 《Journal of Metamorphic Geology》2020,38(5):471-493
Quartz-in-garnet inclusion barometry integrated with trace element thermometry and calculated phase relations is applied to mylonitized schists of the Pinkie unit cropping out on the island of Prins Karls Forland, western part of the Svalbard Archipelago. This approach combines conventional and novel techniques and allows deciphering of the pressure–temperature (P–T) evolution of mylonitic rocks, for which the P–T conditions could not have been easily deciphered using traditional methods. The results obtained suggest that rocks of the Pinkie unit were metamorphosed under amphibolite facies conditions at 8–10 kbar and 560–630°C and mylonitized at ~500 to 550°C and 9–11 kbar. The P–T results are coupled with in-situ Th–U-total Pb monazite dating, which records amphibolite facies metamorphism at c. 359–355 Ma. This is the very first evidence of late Devonian–early Carboniferous metamorphism in Svalbard and it implies that the Ellesmerian Orogeny on Svalbard was associated with metamorphism up to amphibolite facies conditions. Thus, it can be concluded that the Ellesmerian collision between the Franklinian margin of Laurentia and Pearya and Svalbard caused not only commonly accepted brittle deformation and weak greenschist facies metamorphism, but also a burial and deformation of rock complexes at much greater depths at elevated temperatures. 相似文献
9.
A reconstruction of the palaeohydrological conditions of a flood‐plain: a multi‐proxy study from the Grabia River valley mire,central Poland 下载免费PDF全文
Dominik Pawłowski Grzegorz Kowalewski Krystyna Milecka Mateusz Płóciennik Michał Woszczyk Tomasz Zieliński Daniel Okupny Wojciech Włodarski Jacek Forysiak 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2015,44(3):543-562
This study investigated the Grabia River valley mire in central Poland to reconstruct its palaeoenvironmental conditions from the Younger Dryas to the present. We analysed sedimentological, biological and geochemical data from the palaeo‐oxbow lake and valley mire to identify the principal hydrological trends, especially episodes of high water level. During the Lateglacial and Holocene, the Grabia River had a meandering channel, and its hydraulic parameters and the channel dimensions changed in response to climatic oscillations and vegetation development. We identified phases of high flood intensity and high groundwater level that correlate with regional and supraregional climatic events. The frequency and timing of palaeohydroclimatic oscillations show strong similarities to records from other sites in Poland and the rest of Europe. We show that various analytical methods, namely, pollen, plant macrofossils, Cladocera, Chironomidae, sedimentological, geochemical and radiocarbon data, can be effective tools for reconstructing past hydroclimatic changes in palaeo‐oxbow lakes and investigating the effects of past climate changes on river environments. The high sensitivity of the biota, especially Cladocera, to changes in water level permits the reconstruction of palaeoecological changes, especially flood episodes that occurred in the river valley. In particular, the increase in the proportion of sediment‐associated Cladocera and pelagic taxa was closely correlated with floods. Through comparisons with the palaeobiological data, geochemical data allowed the identification of humid phases within the fen associated with a rising groundwater table, direct fluvial activity (floods) and alluvial deposition. We also discuss the limitations of palaeohydrological reconstructions based on these proxies, especially on fossil aquatic invertebrates. 相似文献
10.
Intensity of in‐lake processes in floodplain lakes within the Bug River zone of fluvial activity 下载免费PDF全文
The paper presents a new approach to calculating the erosion and deposition values of floodplain lake basins, the erosion–deposition index (EDI). The EDI is a sum of the basin geometry indices (BGIs), which can be calculated for a separate cross section of the lake. The distribution of processes within the basin was investigated in two selected floodplain lakes with the use of BGIs. Field research was carried out in the Bug River valley from 1 November 2006 to 31 October 2011. The highest erosion was observed in the lakes located close to the parent river. Deposition processes were observed in lakes with high inflow of groundwater. The results showed that EDI values of 48 out of the 71 floodplain lakes ranged from ?0.2 to 0.2. Spatial distribution of erosion and deposition processes within the lake basins resulted from a velocity of water inflowing or flowing through the basin. This was observed especially in contrafluent–confluent lake. Inflow of rivers water via upstream crevasse occurred later than via downstream one, but energy of flowing water was higher, which favoured erosion of this part of the lake basin. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献