Monitoring of protected bands of Terkos drinking water reservoir of metropolitan Istanbul near the Black Sea coast using satellite data

In this study, remote sensing (RS) with computer-based geographic information systems (GIS) techniques are used as a tool for monitoring the water basin area and water quality in Istanbul's relatively less polluted and comparatively less destroyed catchment of the metropolis drinking water dam reservoir named Terkos. It is necessary to work with recent data to be able to identify the effects of urbanization on the water quality of the Terkos dam catchment area that supplies drinking water to the metropolis. RS is an important tool to monitor water quality and urban terrain. For this aim, a project has been initiated at the Technical University Remote Sensing Laboratory, under the Istanbul Water and Sewerage Administration (ISKI) sponsorship in Istanbul. The project uses SPOT-PAN, XS and IRS-1C/D PAN and satellite data of 1993 and 2000 for urban analysis and Landsat-TM and LISS-III satellite data of 1992 and 2000 for water quality. For calibration and validation, ground truth samples are collected from the experimental area. The RS data was converted into the UTM coordinate system and image enhancement and classification techniques are used. Raster data is converted to vector data to assess the study area for analyzing in GIS for the purpose of planning and decision-making on protected water basin zones. As a result of monitoring land use and water quality changes, recommendations are made for planning and management of the protected environment of the Terkos catchment protected area. Measuring land use change is a very important issue for controlling the future development of the basin, GIS techniques are performed and results are illustrated in established models on the four protected zones of Terkos water basin.     

Assessing the impacts of climate change on sustainable management of coastal aquifers

Water is a vital resource for the survival of not only human population, but also almost all ecosystems. Constituting 30 % of all freshwater, groundwater is the main source of available freshwater. Coastal aquifers, which serve as the major freshwater source for densely populated zones, are of vital importance and quite vulnerable to climate change. This paper examines the significant consequences of climate change, decreasing recharge rates, sea-level rise and increasing freshwater demand on the sustainable management of coastal aquifers, via a hypothetical case study. A 3-D numerical model is developed using SEAWAT, to simulate a circular island aquifer in the form of a freshwater lens surrounded by saltwater. Issues such as sloping land surface resulting in landward migration of the coastal boundary and transient response of the system due to pumping are considered through a set of predictive simulations. To assess the sensitivity of the model results to important parameters, a sensitivity analysis is performed. Results of this research, revealing the effects of mentioned pressures on the long-term sustainability of the freshwater resource, are evaluated on the basis of groundwater reserves and intrusion of the freshwater–saltwater interface in lateral and vertical directions. These outcomes are further used to determine the sustainable pumping rate of the system, considering both quantity and quality of the groundwater resources.     

Assessing the impact of climate change on Mogan and Eymir Lakes’ levels in Central Turkey

Global warming is likely to have significant effect on the hydrological cycle. Some parts of the world may see significant reductions in precipitation or major alterations in the timing of wet and dry seasons. Climate change is one of the serious pressures facing water resources and their management over the next few years and decades. As part of the southern belt of Mediterranean Europe, Turkey is highly vulnerable to anticipated climate change impacts. The changes in global climate will seriously affect inland freshwater ecosystems and coastal lakes. Mogan and Eymir Lakes located in Central Turkey are shallow lakes that may be impacted significantly by climate change. The interaction between the lakes and groundwater system has been modelled in order to analyse the response of lake levels to climate change over a planning period of 96 years, beginning from October 2004 and ending in September 2100. The impacts of the emission scenarios of A2 and B1 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on lake levels have been analyzed with the help of the lake-aquifer simulation model. The fluctuations in lake levels due to climate change scenarios are compared with the results of a scenario generated by the assumption of the continuation of the average recharge and discharge conditions observed for 1999 and 2004. The results show that very small, but long-term changes to precipitation and temperature have the potential to cause significant declines in lake levels and temporary drying of the lakes in the long-term. The impact of climate change on lake levels will depend on how these water resources are managed in the future.     

Space and exclusion: does urban morphology play a part in social deprivation?

There is currently a growing interest in the spatial causes of poverty, particularly its persistence. This paper presents methodological innovations that have been developed for investigating the relationship between physical segregation and economic marginalization in the urban environment. Using GIS to layer historical poverty data, contemporary deprivation indexes and space syntax measures of spatial segregation, a multivariate system has been created to enable the understanding of the spatial process involved in the creation and stagnation of poverty areas as well as to analyse the street segment scale of configuration.     

Impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge in Küçük Menderes River Basin in Western Turkey

Groundwater is an important component of the global freshwater supply and is affected by climate. There is a strong need to understand and evaluate the impacts of climate change over the long term, in order to better plan and manage precious groundwater resources. Turkey, located in Mediterranean basin, is threatened by climate change. The purpose of this study was, through a quantitative overview, to determine the impacts of climate change on the groundwater recharge rates in Küçük Menderes River Basin in western Turkey. According to the data of Ödemi? and Selçuk meteorological stations located in the basin, there is a significantly decreasing trend in precipitation combined with increasing trends in temperature and evaporation observed in 1964–2011. The calculations of groundwater recharge with hydrologic budget method for the observation period showed an approximately 15% decline in groundwater recharge in the basin. Thus, the combined impacts of climate change and excessive groundwater pumping, due to increasing water demand, have caused a significant decline in groundwater levels. Consequently, the proper management of the groundwater resources threatened by climate change requires effective governance to both mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change and facilitate the adaptation of sustainable integrated water management policies.     

Impacts of climatic variables on water-level variations in two shallow Eastern Mediterranean lakes

Variations in temperature and precipitation have direct impacts on the physical, chemical and biological characteristics of the shallow lakes. This paper examines the possible linkages between climate variables and the water levels of shallow interconnected Lakes Mogan and Eymir, located 20 km south of Ankara in Central Anatolia. The variations in the lakes’ water levels during 1996–2015 are studied and the impacts of climate variables on the lake levels are assessed to address the long-term consequences. The nonparametric Mann–Kendall test was used to quantify trends in the climate variables and the lakes’ level fluctuations between the observation periods 1998–2007 and 2008–2014. Statistical analyses results showed that precipitation and temperature have crucial influence on the variations in the lakes’ levels. The projected increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation over the next century may produce substantial decreases in lake levels, with consequent drying of both lakes.     

Implementation of a hybrid MLP-FFA model for water level prediction of Lake Egirdir,Turkey

The predictive ability of a hybrid model integrating the Firefly Algorithm (FFA), as a heuristic optimization tool with the Multilayer Perceptron (MLP-FFA) algorithm for the prediction of water level in Lake Egirdir, Turkey, is investigated. The accuracy of the hybrid MLP-FFA model is then evaluated against the standalone MLP-based model developed with the Levenberg–Marquadt optimization scheme applied for in the backpropagation-based learning process. To develop and investigate the veracity of the proposed hybrid MLP-FFA model, monthly time scale water level data for 56 years (1961–2016) are applied to train and test the hybrid model. The input combinations of the standalone and the hybrid predictive models are determined in accordance with the Average Mutual Information computed from the historical water level (training) data; generating four statistically significant lagged combinations of historical data to be adopted for the 1-month forecasting of lake water level. The proposed hybrid MLP-FFA model is evaluated with statistical score metrics: Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, root mean square and mean absolute error, Wilmott’s Index and Taylor diagram developed in the testing phase. The analysis of the results showed that the hybrid MLP–FFA4 model (where 4 months of lagged combinations of lake water level data are utilized) performed more accurately than the standalone MLP4 model. For the fully optimized hybrid (MLP-FFA4) model evaluated in the testing phase, the Willmott’s Index was approximately 0.999 relative to 0.988 (MLP 4) and the root mean square error was approximately 0.029 m and compared to 0.102 m. Moreover, the inter-comparison of the forecasted and the observed data with various other performance metrics (including the Taylor diagram) verified the robustness of the proposed hybrid MLP-FFA4 model over the standalone MLP4 model applied in the problem of forecasting lake water level prediction in the current semi-arid region in Turkey.     

Broadband ground-motion simulation of the 24 May 2014 Gokceada (North Aegean Sea) earthquake (Mw 6.9) in NW Turkey considering local soil effects

On 24 May 2014, a Mw 6.9 earthquake occurred in the west of Gokceada Island, northern Aegean Sea. The earthquake was close to Canakkale, Enez, Tekirdag cities, and damaged 300 buildings in the Marmara Region, NW Turkey. We simulated its broadband (0.1–10 Hz) ground motions including 1D deep and shallow structures soil amplification effects at the 12 strong ground motion stations in the western Marmara Region. The 1D deep velocity structures from the focal layer to the engineering bedrock with an S-wave velocity of 0.78 km/s in different azimuthal directions were tuned by comparing the observed group-velocity dispersion curves of Rayleigh and Love waves from the mainshock with theoretical ones. We also added the shallow parts from previous surveys into the 1D models. Synthetic seismograms on the engineering bedrock were generated using the discrete wave number method with a source model and the 1D deep velocity structures. Then the surface motion was generated considering shallow soil amplification. The synthetic seismograms are generally in good agreement with the observed low and high-frequency parts at most of the stations indicating an appropriateness of the source model and the 1D structural model.     

Implications of a new,biostratigraphically well-controlled,radio-isotopic age for the lower Telychian Stage of the Llandovery Series （Lower Silurian,Sweden）

Radio-isotopic analysis of single zircons from two early Telychian K-bentonites, one of which is among the most widespread Lower Paleozoic volcanic ash falls in north- ern Europe, yields overlapping weighted mean 206pb/238U ages of 438. 7± 1.0 Ma and 437.8 ± 0.5 Ma, respectively. The former age is from zircons of the Osmundsberg K-bentonite from the type locality at Osmundsberget in the Siljan area of central Sweden where it occurs in the lower part of the Spirograptus tur- riculatus Graptolite Zone and in the lower part of the Angochitina longicollis Chitinozoan Zone. Zircons giv- ing the latter age are from a bed previously identified as the Osmundsberg K-bentonite at the Kallholn Quarry in the same area. Based on new biostratigraphic data, the latter bed is now considered to be slightly younger than the Osmundsberg K-bentonite. The dated stratigraphic level of the ash layers is slightly younger than the base of the Telychian Stage and thus represents a minimum age for the Aeronian/Telychian Stage boundary. A U-Pb age of 〉 438 Ma for the base of this stage, however, is older and in conflict with estimates in the most recent compilation of the Silurian time scale. In view of the fact that only three radio-isotopic dates from the entire Llan- dovery have been previously accepted, this new and biostratigraphically exceptionally well-controlled radio-isotopic date fills an important gap in the Lower Silurian geochronology.