The impact of vertebrate herbivores on wetland vegetation in Atchafalaya Bay, Louisiana

Delta islands in the Atchafalaya and Wax Lake deltas in Atchafalaya Bay, Louisiana, are in an extremely dynamic successional phase. These islands initially supported large marshes dominated by the pioneering plant species Sagittaria latifolia and Sagittaria platyphylla. A general decrease in vegetated areas has occurred in the delta island marshes in the Atchafalaya Delta since about 1980, while in the Wax Lake Delta portion of the complex the vegetation still flourished. The Atchafalaya Delta provides an interesting setting for the study of herbivory because of the complex interaction of biotic and physical factors operating in this delta. We hypothesized that grazing by herbivores has a marked effect on vegetation in these developing marshes. To test this hypothesis, exclosures were erected on islands in both deltas in September 1985 and January 1986. Each set of exclosure treatments included an openly-grazed control area, an ungrazed area, an area allowing nutria grazing, and one allowing waterfowl grazing in each site. Results of the experiment, based on field sampling of vegetation, indicated decreases in plant biomass and changes in plant species composition in grazed treatments. Waterfowl and nutria reduced biomass aboul equally, but there was a more marked effect in the openly grazed areas. These findings may be extrapolated to sediment diversion areas along the Mississippi River.     

Quantifying the impact of urban area expansion on groundwater recharge and surface runoff

ABSTRACT

In this surface water modelling study, a new spatial evaluation for assessing the impact of urbanization was applied for the semi-arid watersheds intersecting with the Gaza coastal aquifer. The SWAT model was calibrated and validated in a semi-automated approach for streamflow in the main watersheds. The results show that the model could simulate water budget components adequately within the complex semi-arid watersheds. Linear relationships between the change in urban area and the corresponding change in surface runoff or percolation were concluded for the urbanized sub-basins. The urban-surface runoff index (USI) and the urban-percolation index (UPI) were developed to represent a micro-level evaluation of different urban change scenarios in the sub-basins. The global urban-surface runoff index (GUSI) and the global urban-percolation index (GUPI) were derived as macro-level factors reflecting the influence on the overall Gaza coastal aquifer due to urban area expansion.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis Associate editor E. Rozos     

Seismo-acoustic analysis of the Buncefield oil depot explosion in the UK, 2005 December 11

A massive vapour cloud explosion occurred at the Buncefield fuel depot near Hemel Hempstead, UK, in the morning of 2005 December 11. The explosion was the result of an overflow from one of the storage tanks with the release of over 300 tons of petrol and generating a vapour cloud that spread over an area of 80 000 m², before being ignited. Considerable damage was caused in the vicinity of the explosion and a total of 43 people were injured. The explosion was detected by seismograph stations in the UK and the Netherlands and by infrasound arrays in the Netherlands. We analysed the seismic recordings to determine the origin time of 06:01:31.45 ±0.5 s (UTC) from P -wave arrival times. Uncertainties in determination of origin time from acoustic arrival times alone were less than 10 s. Amplitudes of P -, Lg and primary acoustic waves were measured to derive decay relationships as function of distance. From the seismic amplitudes we estimated a yield of 2–10 tons equivalent to a buried explosion. Most seismic stations recorded primary and secondary acoustic waves. We used atmospheric ray tracing to identify the various travel paths, which depend on temperature and wind speed as function of altitude, leading to directional variation. Refracted waves were observed from the troposphere, stratosphere and thermosphere with a good match between observed and calculated traveltimes. The various wave types were also identified through array processing, which provides backazimuth and slowness, of recordings from an infrasound array in the Netherlands. The amplitude of stratospheric refracted acoustic waves recorded by the array microbarometers was used to estimate a yield of 21.6 (±5) tons TNT equivalent. We have demonstrated through joint seismo-acoustic analysis of the explosion that both the seismic velocity model and the atmospheric model are sufficient to explain the observed traveltimes.     

A climatology of infrasound detections in northern Norway at the experimental ARCI array

The study of infrasound is experiencing a renaissance in recent years since it was chosen as a verification technique for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. Currently, 60 infrasound arrays are being installed to monitor the atmosphere for nuclear tests as part of the International Monitoring System (IMS). The number of non-IMS arrays also increases worldwide. The experimental ARCES infrasound array (ARCI) is an example of such an initiative. The detectability of infrasound differs for each array and is a function of the array location and configuration, the state of the atmosphere, and the presence of natural and anthropogenic sources. In this study, a year of infrasound data is analyzed as recorded by ARCI. Contributions of the atmosphere and the sources are evaluated in both a low- (0.1–1.0 Hz) and high-frequency (1.0–7.0 Hz) pass-band. The enormous number of detections in the low-frequency band is explained in terms of the stratospheric wind and ocean wave activity and compared with the detection of microseism. Understanding the detectability in the low-frequency band is of utmost importance for successfully applying infrasound as a verification technique since small-sized nuclear test will show up in this frequency range.     

Spatially-explicit sensitivity and uncertainty analysis in a MCDA-based flood vulnerability model

This study presents a methodology for conducting sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of a GIS-based multi-criteria model used to assess flood vulnerability in a case study in Brazil. The paper explores the robustness of model outcomes against slight changes in criteria weights. One criterion was varied at-a-time, while others were fixed to their baseline values. An algorithm was developed using Python and a geospatial data abstraction library to automate the variation of weights, implement the ANP (analytic network process) tool, reclassify the raster results, compute the class switches, and generate an uncertainty surface. Results helped to identify highly vulnerable areas that are burdened by high uncertainty and to investigate which criteria contribute to this uncertainty. Overall, the criteria ‘houses with improper building material’ and ‘evacuation drills and training’ are the most sensitive ones, thus, requiring more accurate measurements. The sensitivity of these criteria is explained by their weights in the base run, their spatial distribution, and the spatial resolution. These findings can support decision makers to characterize, report, and mitigate uncertainty in vulnerability assessment. The case study results demonstrate that the developed approach is simple, flexible, transparent, and may be applied to other complex spatial problems.