Global implications of joint fossil fuel subsidy reform and nuclear phase-out: an economic analysis

This paper uses the OECD’s global recursive-dynamic general equilibrium model ENVLinkages to examine the mid-term economic consequences and the optimal energy supply mix adjustments of a simultaneous implementation of i) a progressive fossil fuel subsidy reform in emerging and developing economies and ii) a progressive phase out of nuclear energy, mostly affecting OECD countries, China and Russia. The analysis is then transposed in the context of climate change mitigation to depict the corresponding implications for CO2 emissions, to assess the interactions between the two energy policies, and to derive how the associated costs are affected by the different policies. The phase-out scenario projects a nuclear capacity halved by 2035 as compared to the Baseline, corresponding to $120 billion losses in value-added of the nuclear industry for that year. The nuclear phase-out leaves GDP and real household consumption marginally affected in energy importing countries. A multilateral subsidy reform is more likely to affect international fossil fuel prices and alter patterns of global energy use. The fossil fuel subsidy reform, when implemented together with nuclear phase-out, more than offsets negative consequences on household consumption but still leads to a decrease in global CO2 emissions. The combined policies help save the equivalent of current energy consumption in the Middle East. Combining a climate policy, an effective fossil fuel subsidy reform, even with a lower nuclear share in the power mix, brings about multiple benefits to OECD countries which reduce their energy bill and achieve large climate change mitigation at lower cost.     

The 1996 eruption at Gjálp,Vatnajökull ice cap,Iceland: efficiency of heat transfer,ice deformation and subglacial water pressure

The 13-day-long Gjálp eruption within the Vatnajökull ice cap in October 1996 provided important data on ice–volcano interaction in a thick temperate glacier. The eruption produced 0.8 km³ of mainly volcanic glass with a basaltic icelandite composition (equivalent to 0.45 km³ of magma). Ice thickness above the 6-km-long volcanic fissure was initially 550–750 m. The eruption was mainly subglacial forming a 150–500 m high ridge; only 2–4% of the volcanic material was erupted subaerially. Monitoring of the formation of ice cauldrons above the vents provided data on ice melting, heat flux and indirectly on eruption rate. The heat flux was 5–6×10⁵ W m^-2 in the first 4 days. This high heat flux can only be explained by fragmentation of magma into volcanic glass. The pattern of ice melting during and after the eruption indicates that the efficiency of instantaneous heat exchange between magma and ice at the eruption site was 50–60%. If this is characteristic for magma fragmentation in subglacial eruptions, volcanic material and meltwater will in most cases take up more space than the ice melted in the eruption. Water accumulation would therefore cause buildup of basal water pressure and lead to rapid release of the meltwater. Continuous drainage of meltwater is therefore the most likely scenario in subglacial eruptions under temperate glaciers. Deformation and fracturing of ice played a significant role in the eruption and modified the subglacial water pressure. It is found that water pressure at a vent under a subsiding cauldron is substantially less than it would be during static loading by the overlying ice, since the load is partly compensated for by shear forces in the rapidly deforming ice. In addition to intensive crevassing due to subsidence at Gjálp, a long and straight crevasse formed over the southernmost part of the volcanic fissure on the first day of the eruption. It is suggested that the feeder dyke may have overshot the bedrock–ice interface, caused high deformation rates and fractured the ice up to the surface. The crevasse later modified the flow of meltwater, explaining surface flow of water past the highest part of the edifice. The dominance of magma fragmentation in the Gjálp eruption suggests that initial ice thickness greater than 600–700 m is required if effusive eruption of pillow lava is to be the main style of activity, at least in similar eruptions of high initial magma discharge.Editorial responsibility: J. Donnelly-Nolan     

Development of the ecosystem on surtsey with references to Anak Krakatau

There is a strong similarity in the formation and size of the two new volcanic islands: Anak Krakatau, Indonesia (emerging 1930) and Surtsey, Iceland (emerging 1963). They are both piled up from an ocean floor of over 100 m depth, forming islands of cinder and lava covering more than 2 km² in area. They are both extremely valuable for various ecological studies, ie of investigation of means of dispersal and colonization. However, due to their tropical and subarctic locations, respectively, there is an extreme difference in climate of the two islands and thus in the kind of available life forms, their means of colonization and rate of growth.The first vascular plant was found on Surtsey in 1965, bryophytes became established in 1967 and lichens were first detected in 1970. The advancement of the vascular plant colonization has been of greatest importance in the establishment of vegetation on the island. Twenty-five species of vascular plants, all herbaceous, had been recorded on Surtsey in 1990, the dominant species being Honkenya peploides. Less than 1% ofthe island has vegetation cover, root biomass is low and the organic carbon and nitrogen status of the soil is poorly developed. Birds started nesting on Surtsey in 1970 and six species, all depending on marine life for food, had nested on the island in 1990. The land-invertebrate fauna has developed slowly on Surtsey and the island is devoid of vertebrates other than birds.     

Les formations burdigaliennes de Corse orientale dans leur cadre géodynamique

The earliest marine sediments of eastern Corsica, linked to the birth of the Corsica Basin, are represented by granitic breccia of the Saint-Antoine Formation and pelagic marls of the Alzelle Formation. They are dated as Mid-Burdigalian by nannoplankton and planktonic foraminifera (relative age and grade datings between 18.7 and 18.3 Ma). The Aghione Formation (Latest Burdigalian–Langhian) lies upon the Alzelle Formation. A component of the major East-Corsican faults, the Saint-Antoine Fault, underwent extensional activity during the Burdigalian and until the Late Miocene, when occurred the uplift of the Castagniccia antiform. To cite this article: M.-D. Loÿe-Pilot et al., C. R. Geoscience 336 (2004).     

Monitoring of the plume from the basaltic phreatomagmatic 2004 Grímsv?tn eruption—application of weather radar and comparison with plume models

The Grímsv?tn eruption in November 2004 belongs to a class of small- to medium-sized phreatomagmatic eruptions which are common in Iceland. The eruption lasted 6?days, but the main phase, producing most of the 0.02?km³ of magma erupted, was visible for 33?h on the C-band weather radar of the Icelandic Meteorological Office located in Keflavík, 260?km to the west of the volcano. The plume rose to 8–12?km high over sea level during 33?h. The long distance between radar and source severely reduces the accuracy of the plume height determinations, causing 3.5-km steps in recorded heights. Moreover, an apparent height overestimate of ~1.5?km in the uncorrected radar records occurs, possibly caused by wave ducting or super-refraction in the atmosphere. The stepping and the height overestimate can be partly overcome by averaging the plume heights and by applying a height adjustment based on direct aircraft measurements. Adjusted weather radar data on plume height are used to estimate the total mass erupted using empirical plume models mostly based on magmatic eruptions and to compare it with detailed in situ measurements of the mass of erupted tephra. The errors arising because of the large radar plume distance limit the applicability of the data for detailed comparisons. However, the results indicate that the models overestimate the mass erupted by a factor of three to four. This supports theoretical models indicating that high steam content of phreatomagmatic (wet) plumes enhances their height compared to dry plumes.