MASS FLUX OF ASTEROIDAL ORIGIN METEOROIDS ON PERIODIC COMET NUCLEI

We examine the potential contamination of cometary nuclei through impacts from asteroidal origin meteoroids. The paper uses a simple model and has the goal of determining whether asteroidal contamination is potentially significant. We assume a meteoroid power law mass distribution with index values in the range from s=1.83 to s=2.09. We used maximum and minimum models which we believe will bracket the true meteoroid mass distribution. We identify those comets which are expected to be most significantly contaminated, and find values of up to 3.6 kg of asteroidal meteoroid impact per square meter of the cometary surface per orbital revolution. This is less than the expected mass loss per perihelion passage for most comets. Therefore any remnant effects of the contamination will depend on the penetration depth of the meteoroids in the cometary nucleus, and possibly on the distribution of active and inactive areas on cometary nuclei. We present a simple model which suggests that even small meteoroids will embed relatively deeply into a cometary nucleus.     

GIS, expert systems, and interoperability

Integrating a GIS has been a common way to combine the functionality of two or more systems for some time. A three-dimensional model of integration is described which shows the range of linkages that can be achieved. Extremely flexible and dynamic linkages between systems can now be created through the recent advances of client/server and object-oriented technology. An expert system shell is coupled with a GIS to create a generic spatial rule-based toolbox called SES (spatial expert shell). An expert system developer using this toolbox can transparently access spatial data and relationships from a GIS by linking application objects to spatial classes. These spatial classes include methods that format and send requests to the GIS server. Thus the linkage is determined at run-time allowing a flexible interwoven interaction between the expert system and the GIS.     

Full-glacial — late-glacial palaeoclimate of the Southern Andes: evidence from pollen,beetle and glacial records

Palaeoecological studies carried out in the Chilean Lake District and Chilotan Archipelago (41°–43°S) record full-glacial and late-glacial pollen assemblages beginning just after 21000 and beetle assemblages after 18000, both sets extending until 10000 ¹⁴C yr BP. Pollen records indicate that Subantarctic Parkland, the vegetation of the early millennia of record, changed after about 14000 yr BP to become open woodland and later North Patagonian Evergreen Forest. Assemblages of plants and beetles, responding more or less in unison to a strong rise in temperature (≥ 6°C), behaved in accord at around 14000 until 13000–12500 yr BP, the beetle fauna displaying a marked increase in obligate forest types. During full-glacial conditions (17400–16100 and 15300 and 14400 yr BP) and in the late-glacial interval (after about 13000 yr BP), however, climate evidently coerced populations dissimilarly, the pollen sequence showing an increase in plant taxa indicative of colder climate, whereas the beetle fauna underwent little or no variation. Contrasting climate modes implied by plants and beetles may be attributed to differential responses to apparent low-order temperature changes (≤ 2–3°C).     

3D ELECTROMAGNETIC INVERSION USING INTEGRAL EQUATIONS1

Utilizing electromagnetic data in geophysical exploration work is difficult when measured responses are complicated by the effects of 3D structures. 1D and 2D models may not be capable of accurately simulating the physical processes that contribute to a measured response. 3D conductive-host modelling is difficult, costly and time-consuming. Using a 3D inverse procedure it is possible to automate the interpretation of controlled-source electromagnetic data. This procedure uses an inverse formulation based on frequency-domain, volume integral equations and a pulse-basis representation for the internal electrical field and anomalous conductivity. Beginning with an initial model composed of a 3D inhomogeneous region residing in a laterally homogeneous (layered-earth) geoelectrical section, iterative least-squares algorithms are used to refine the geometry and the conductivity of the inhomogeneity. This novel approach for 3D electromagnetic interpretation yields a reliable and stable inverse solution provided constraints on how much the variable can change at each iteration are incorporated. Integral-equation-based inverse formulations that do not correctly address the non-linearity of this inverse problem may have poor convergence properties, particularly when dealing with the high conductivity contrasts that are typical of many exploration problems. While problems associated with contamination of the data by random noise and non-uniqueness of solutions do not usually influence the inverse solution in an adverse manner, problems associated with model inadequacy and errors in an assumed background conductivity structure can produce undesirable effects.     

Age, origin and significance of a new middle MIS 3 tephra horizon identified within a long-core sequence from Les Echets, France

A new tephra has been identified within a long core (EC 3) sequence recovered from Les Echets, near Lyon, France. This visible tephra was discovered as part of a high resolution multiproxy re-investigation of the Les Echets sequence. Independent chronological information suggests that the tephra is c . 2 000–45 000 years old, and geochemical analysis indicates that it is of basanitic composition. The latter suggests a possible origin in the Eifel; however, as yet, no other volcanic events or deposits can be correlated to the Les Echets tephra. New sedimentological and chronological data are presented indicating that the tephra falls within an interval that most likely correlates with Dansgaard–Oeschger events 12-9. Thus, this tephra could potentially be an important middle MIS 3 marker horizon in central Europe if it can be traced in other palaeorecords.     

A hybrid multi-model approach to river level forecasting

Abstract

This paper presents four different approaches for integrating conventional and AI-based forecasting models to provide a hybridized solution to the continuous river level and flood prediction problem. Individual forecasting models were developed on a stand alone basis using historical time series data from the River Ouse in northern England. These include a hybrid neural network, a simple rule-based fuzzy logic model, an ARMA model and naive predictions (which use the current value as the forecast). The individual models were then integrated via four different approaches: calculation of an average, a Bayesian approach, and two fuzzy logic models, the first based purely on current and past river flow conditions and the second, a fuzzification of the crisp Bayesian method. Model performance was assessed using global statistics and a more specific flood related evaluation measure. The addition of fuzzy logic to the crisp Bayesian model yielded overall results that were superior to the other individual and integrated approaches.     

222Rn and 226Ra: indicators of sea-ice effects on air-sea gas exchange

²²² Rn and ²²⁶Ra distributions beneath the sea ice of the Barents Sea revealed that ice cover has varied effects on air-sea gas exchange. Twice, once in late summer and once in late winter, seawater samples from the top meter below drill holes had ²²²Rn activities that were not lower than their ^226,Ra activities, indicating the existence of secular equilibrium and a negligible net exchange of ²²²Rn and other gases with the atmosphere. However, seawater in the upper 20-85 m usually exhibited at least some ²²²Rn depletion; ²²²Rn-to-²²⁶Ra activity ratios tended to have 'ice-free' values (0.3-0.9) in the summer and values between 0.9 and 1.0 in the winter. Integrated ²²²Rn depletions and piston velocities in both seasons typically fell in the lower 25% of the ranges for ice-free seawater, suggesting that a moderate but far from total reduction in gas exchange is normally caused by ice cover and/or meltwater. The results demonstrate that sea-ice interference with the oceanic uptake of atmospheric gases such as CO, is not well understood and needs further investigation.     

Pilgrimstad revisited – a multi‐proxy reconstruction of Early/Middle Weichselian climate and environment at a key site in central Sweden

Wohlfarth, B., Alexanderson, H., Ampel, L., Bennike, O., Engels, S., Johnsen, T., Lundqvist, J. & Reimer, P. 2010: Pilgrimstad revisited – a multi‐proxy reconstruction of Early/Middle Weichselian climate and environment at a key site in central Sweden. Boreas, 10.1111/j.1502‐3885.2010.00192.x. ISSN 0300‐9483. The site Pilgrimstad in central Sweden has often been cited as a key locality for discussions of ice‐free/ice‐covered intervals during the Early and Middle Weichselian. Multi‐proxy investigations of a recently excavated section at Pilgrimstad now provide a revised picture of the climatic and environmental development between ～80 and 36 ka ago. The combination of sedimentology, geochemistry, OSL and ¹⁴C dating, and macrofossil, siliceous microfossil and chironomid analyses shows: (i) a lower succession of glaciofluvial/fluvial, lacustrine and glaciolacustrine sediments; (ii) an upper lacustrine sediment sequence; and (iii) Last Glacial Maximum till cover. Microfossils in the upper lacustrine sediments are initially characteristic for oligo‐ to mesotrophic lakes, and macrofossils indicate arctic/sub‐arctic environments and mean July temperatures >8 °C. These conditions were, however, followed by a return to a low‐nutrient lake and a cold and dry climate. The sequence contains several hiatuses, as shown by the often sharp contacts between individual units, which suggests that ice‐free intervals alternated with possible ice advances during certain parts of the Early and Middle Weichselian.