Real-time difference imaging analysis of MOA Galactic bulge observations during 2000

We describe observations carried out by the MOA group of the Galactic bulge during 2000 that were designed to detect efficiently gravitational microlensing of faint stars in which the magnification is high and/or of short duration. These events are particularly useful for studies of extrasolar planets and faint stars. Approximately 17 deg² were monitored at a sampling rate of up to six times per night. The images were analysed in real time using a difference imaging technique. 20 microlensing candidates were detected, of which eight were alerted to the microlensing community whilst in progress. Approximately half of the candidates had high magnifications (≳10), at least one had very high magnification (≳50), and one exhibited a clear parallax effect. The details of these events are reported here, together with details of the on-line difference imaging technique. Some nova-like events were also observed and these are described, together with one asteroid.     

Wide-Field Camera for Gravitational Microlensing Survey: MOA-cam2

We have constructed a large, mosaic CCD camera called MOA-cam2 which has 4096 × 6144-pixelsto search for gravitational microlensing events. MOA-cam2 has three4096 × 2048-pixel SITe CCD chips, which have a very high quantum efficiency (nearly 80% in the wave region 500 to 800 nm),and three buttable sides. We have placed the threechips side by side with 100 m dead space. MOA-cam2 has been installed on the 61 cm Boller and Chivens telescope of the MOA collaboration at the Mt. John University Observatory (MJUO) in NewZealand since July 1998. The field coverage is 0.92° × 1.38° per exposure. The technical details of MOA-cam2 and the first images obtained with the Boller and Chivens telescope are presented. MOA-cam2 introduces a second phase of research on gravitational microlensing by the MOA collaboration.     

Microlensing of close binary stars

The gravity due to a multiple-mass system has a remarkable gravitational effect: the extreme magnification of background light sources along extended so-called caustic lines. This property has been the channel for some remarkable astrophysical discoveries over the past decade, including the detection and characterization of extrasolar planets, the routine analysis of limb darkening, and, in one case, limits set on the apparent shape of a star several kiloparsec distant. In this paper, we investigate the properties of the microlensing of close binary star systems. We show that in some cases it is possible to detect flux from the Roche lobes of close binary stars. Such observations could constrain models of close binary stellar systems.     

A reindeer herder's perspective on caribou, weather and socio-economic change on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska

Non-climate variables shape vulnerability and adaptive capacity to climate change. Here, we describe how recent environmental and socio-economic developments have transformed reindeer herding and perceptions of weather on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska. The reindeer industry has shrunk considerably since the early 1990s, when the winter range of the Western Arctic Caribou Herd expanded, and over 17 000 reindeer mixed with migrating caribou and left the region. Socio-economic and environmental repercussions make the continuation of herding tenuous, and erode the ability of herders to cope with weather variability, among other perturbations. We present a case study of one herder's annual cycle, and juxtapose physical drivers of herding activities, including weather-station and herder observations of local weather variability, with socio-economic factors. There is an increased urgency to access and monitor reindeer with caribou present, but herding plans are constrained by lower economic returns and the need to spend more time in non-herding jobs. Although weather is a greater concern now for immediate herd access, standard weather data are largely irrelevant to the mechanics of herding, whereas variables pertaining to the timing of biotic events (e.g., synchrony of spring break-up and calving) and visibility are attributed to lost herding opportunities. Short-term responses to weather conditions stem from more long-term vulnerability associated with caribou presence, reduced herd size, difficulties affording snowmobile maintenance or crew assistance, and dwindling market opportunities. We emphasize the environmental and socio-economic interactions that affect vulnerability and adaptive capacity for modern herding.     

Improving the prospects for detecting extrasolar planets in gravitational microlensing events in 2002

Gravitational microlensing events of high magnification have been shown to be promising targets for detecting extrasolar planets. However, only a few events of high magnification have been found using conventional survey techniques. Here we demonstrate that high-magnification events can be readily found in microlensing surveys using a strategy that combines high-frequency sampling of target fields with on-line difference imaging analysis. We present 10 microlensing events with peak magnifications greater than 40 that were detected in real-time towards the Galactic bulge during 2001 by the Microlensing Observations in Astrophysics (MOA) project. We show that Earth-mass planets can be detected in future events such as these through intensive follow-up observations around the event peaks. We report this result with urgency as a similar number of such events are expected in 2002.     

Planetary microlensing at high magnification

Simulations of planetary microlensing at high magnification that were carried out on a cluster computer are presented. It was found that the perturbations owing to two-thirds of all planets occur in the time interval  −0.5 t _FWHM,0.5 t _FWHM  with respect to the peak of the microlensing light curve, where   t _FWHM  is typically ∼14 h. This implies that only this restricted portion of the light curve need be intensively monitored for planets – a very significant practical advantage. Nearly all planetary detections in high-magnification events will not involve caustic crossings. We discuss the issues involved in determining the planetary parameters in high magnification events. Earth-mass planets may be detected with 1-m class telescopes if their projected orbital radii lie within about 1.5–2.5 au. Giant planets are detectable over a much larger region. For multiplanet systems the perturbations caused by individual planets can be separated under certain conditions. The size of the source star needs to be determined independently, but the presence of spots on the source star is likely to be negligible, as is the effect of planetary motion during an event.     

Short-Range Prediction Experiments with Operational Data Assimilation System for the Kuroshio South of Japan

The short-range (one month) variability of the Kuroshio path was predicted in 84 experiments (90-day predictions) using a model in an operational data assimilation system based on data from 1993 to 1999. The predictions started from an initial condition or members of a set of initial conditions, obtained in a reanalysis experiment. The predictions represent the transition from straight to meander of the Kuroshio path, and the results have been analyzed according to previously proposed mechanisms of the transition with eddy propagation and interaction acting as a trigger of the meander and self-sustained oscillation. The reanalysis shows that the meander evolves due to eddy activity. Simulation (no assimilation) shows no meander state, even with the same atmospheric forcing as the prediction. It is suggested therefore that the initial condition contains information on the meander and the system can represent the evolution. Mean (standard deviation) values of the axis error for all 84 cases are 13, 17, and 20 (10, 10, and 12) km, in 138.5°E, in the 30-, 60-, and 90-day predictions respectively. The observed mean deviation from seasonal variation is 30 km. The predictive limit of the system is thus about 80 days. The time scale of the limit depends on which stage in the transition is adopted as the initial condition. The gradual decrease of the amplitude in a stage from meander to straight paths is also predicted. The predictive limit is about 20 days, which is shorter than the prediction of the opposite transition. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.