Paleolimnological evidence of the response of the central Canadian treeline zone to radiative forcing and hemispheric patterns of temperature change over the past 2000 years

Instrumental climate records from the central Canadian treeline zone display a pattern of variation similar to general Northern Hemisphere temperature trends. To examine whether this general correspondence extends back beyond the instrumental record, we obtained a sediment core from Lake S41, a small lake in the Northwest Territories of Canada at 63°43.11′ N, 109°19.07′ W. A radiocarbon-based chronology was developed for the core. The sediments were analyzed for organic-matter content by loss-on-ignition (LOI), biogenic-silica content (BSi), and chironomid community composition to reconstruct July air temperature and summer water temperature. The paleolimnological records were compared with records of atmospheric CO₂ concentration, solar variability, and hemispheric temperature variations over the past 2000 years. The results of the analyses suggest that widely-documented long-term variations in Northern Hemisphere temperature associated with radiative forcing, namely the cooling following the medieval period during the Little Ice Age (LIA), and twentieth century warming, are represented in the central Canadian treeline zone. There is also evidence of a brief episode of warming during the eighteenth century. As evidenced by LOI and BSi, the twentieth century warming is typified by increased lake productivity relative to the LIA. Depending upon the measure, the increased productivity of the twentieth century nearly equals or exceeds that of any other period in the past 2000 years. In contrast, the rate of chironomid head capsule accumulation decreased and remained low during the twentieth century. Although the chironomid-inferred temperature reconstructions indicate cooling during the LIA, they present no evidence of greatly increased temperatures during the twentieth century. Warming during the twentieth century might have enhanced lake stratification, and the response of the chironomid fauna to warming was attenuated by decreased oxygen and lower temperatures in the hypolimnion of the more stratification-prone lake.

Community Cohesion: Social and Economic Ties in the Personal Networks of Fisherfolk

Social ties influence access to knowledge and cooperation in natural resource management, with the sharing of certain characteristics thought to be positive for social cohesion and participatory forms of management. In this article, a holistic characterisation of fisherfolk personal networks is developed, disaggregating results by the main occupational groups within the fisheries studied, to provide a more nuanced understanding of the personal networks of types of fisherfolk. Links are then made between the characteristics of personal networks and evidence on how fisherfolk benefit from their networks, interpreted as contributing to social cohesion within the communities. The personal networks of fisherfolk (boat crew, boat owners and traders/processors) of Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda bordering Lake Victoria were investigated using personal network analysis, with fisherfolk asked who they discuss their fisheries activities with. The analysis found that networks based on the same occupation were more characteristic of fish traders/processors networks than those of boat crew and boat owners and that shared ethnicity, gender and location were characteristic of boat owner and boat crew networks, though shared ethnicity may reflect the composition of the communities rather than choice. Social and economic interactions within the networks were based on provision of credit, social support and advice, suggesting that these form the basis of social cohesion and should be taken into consideration in working with fishing communities in both development interventions and designing collaborative management approaches.     

Simulating the value of El Niño forecasts for the Panama Canal

The Panama Canal relies on rain-fed streamflow into Gatun Lake, the canal’s primary storage facility, for operations—principally ship passage and hydropower generation. Precipitation in much of Panama has a strong negative relationship with eastern tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) and this relationship is reflected in Gatun Lake inflows. For example, the correlation coefficient between wet season (July–December) inflow and NINO3 SST is −0.53 over the period 1914–1997. Operational capabilities to predict tropical Pacific SSTs have been demonstrated by several forecast systems during the past decade, and (as we show) such SST forecasts can be used to reduce the uncertainty of estimates of future inflows (compared with climatological expectations). Because substantial reductions in lake inflow negatively impact canal operations, we wondered whether these forecasts of future inflows, coupled with a method for translating that information into effective operational policy, might result in more efficient canal management. A combined simulation/optimization/assessment “virtual” canal system was implemented and exercised using operational El Niño forecasts over the period 1981–1998. The results show the following main points:

(i)

At current demand levels, the canal system is relatively robust (insensitive to flow forecasts) unless flows are substantially reduced (i.e., during El Niño episodes) or forecasts are extremely accurate.     

Geochronology and paleomagnetism of mafic igneous rocks in the Olenek Uplift, northern Siberia: Implications for Mesoproterozoic supercontinents and paleogeography

We present a new, reliably dated Mesoproterozoic paleopole for Siberia, based on a combined geochronological and paleomagnetic study of mafic rocks within the Mesoproterozoic Sololi Group of the Olenek Uplift in northern Siberia. Ion microprobe (SHRIMP) U–Pb analysis yields crystallisation ages of 2036 ± 11 Ma for zircon from a basement granite and 1473 ± 24 Ma for baddeleyite from a large dolerite sill within the Kyutingde Formation. The baddeleyite result indicates that the lower Sololi Group is significantly older than was suggested by previous K–Ar results. Paleomagnetic analysis of the dolerite sill and related mafic intrusive rocks yields a paleopole at 33.6°N, 253.1°E, A₉₅ = 10.4°. A positive baked-contact test between the Kyutingde sill and sedimentary country rocks shows that the magnetisation is primary. Comparison of this paleopole with coeval results for Laurentia provides a revised reconstruction between Siberia and Laurentia, and implies that these two continents were parts of a single Mesoproterozoic supercontinent since at least 1473 Ma. We argue that Siberia, Laurentia, and Baltica belonged to the same supercontinent between 1473 Ma and mid-Neoproterozoic time.     

Estimation of potential evapotranspiration in the mountainous Panama Canal watershed

Spatially distributed hydrometeorological and plant information within the mountainous tropical Panama Canal watershed is used to estimate parameters of the Penman–Monteith evapotranspiration formulation. Hydrometeorological data from a few surface climate stations located at low elevations in the watershed are complemented by (a) typical wet‐ and dry‐season fields of temperature, wind, water vapour and pressure produced by a mesoscale atmospheric model with a 3 × 3 km² spatial and hourly temporal resolution, and (b) leaf area index fields estimated over the watershed during a few years using satellite data with two different spatial and temporal resolutions. The mesoscale model estimates of spatially distributed surface hydrometeorological variables provide the basis for the extrapolation of the surface climate station data to produce input for the Penman–Monteith equation. The satellite information and existing digital spatial databases of land use and land cover form the basis for the estimation of Penman–Monteith spatially distributed parameter values. Spatially distributed 3 × 3 km² potential evapotranspiration estimates are obtained for the 3300 km² Panama Canal watershed. Estimates for Gatun Lake within the watershed are found to reproduce well the monthly and annual lake evaporation obtained from submerged pans. Sensitivity analysis results of potential evapotranspiration estimates with respect to cloud cover, dew formation, leaf area index distribution and mesoscale model estimates of surface climate are presented and discussed. The main conclusion is that even the limited spatially distributed hydrometeorological and plant information used in this study contributes significantly toward explaining the substantial spatial variability of potential evapotranspiration in the watershed. These results also allow the determination of key locations within the watershed where additional surface stations may be profitably placed. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Distributed snow accumulation and ablation modeling in the American River basin

A spatially distributed snow model procedure for estimating snow melt, snow water equivalent and snow cover area is formulated and tested with data from the American River basin in California’s Sierra Nevada. An adaptation of the operational National Weather Service snow accumulation and ablation model is used for each model grid cell forced by spatially distributed precipitation and temperature data. The model was implemented with 6-hourly time steps on 1 km² grid cells for the snow season of 1999–2003. Temperature is spatially interpolated using the prevailing lapse rate and digital terrain elevation data. Precipitation is spatially interpolated using regional climatological analyses obtained from PRISM. Parameters that control snow melt are distributed using ground surface aspect. The model simulations are compared with data from 12 snow-sensors located in the basin and the daily 500-m snow cover extent product from the MODIS/Terra satellite mission. The results show that the distribution of snow pack over the area is generally captured. The snow pack quantity compared to snow gauges is well estimated in high elevations with increasing uncertainty in the snow pack at lower elevations. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses indicate that the significant input uncertainty for precipitation and temperature is primarily responsible for model errors in lower elevations and near the snow line. The model is suitable for producing spatially resolved realistic snow pack simulations when forced with operationally available observed or predicted data.